Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:33 pm

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. The EU summit, Brexit, inflation in the European Union

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It is safe to say that we can call the new week, the"Week of Great Britain." Most of the macroeconomic reports planned for the week will concern the GBP/USD pair. Most of the reports regarding the GBP/USD pair will come from the UK. In addition to economic data, it will be decided whether a new Brexit date will be postponed, whether Boris Johnson and the European government will be able to agree on a "deal" and whether the British Parliament will block a new deal if, by some miracle, Brussels and London succeed to reach consensus on all contentious issues in five days? Thus, the EUR/USD pair may feel relatively calm, just as it did the previous week, but the British pound is likely to break volatility records and very often change its direction if the news comes mixed. But consider all the data in more detail.

As we said, most statistics come from the UK. On Tuesday, this will be data on unemployment and changes in average wages for August, on Wednesday - the consumer price index for September, on Thursday - retail sales and the European Union summit on Brexit starts. In addition, the United States will receive information on retail sales for September (Wednesday). However, despite the importance of future reports, we believe that the main attention of traders will be focused on Brexit, on the EU summit and on any information from Boris Johnson, Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Michel Barnier, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron. It is these leaders who most often speak out about the promotion of the Brexit negotiation process and have the greatest influence on it. Regarding the chances of fulfilling one or another Brexit option, we recommend that traders not try to guess the future. Brexit has repeatedly shown to all market participants that trying to predict how everything will end is an ungrateful affair. The growth of the pound was often associated with rumors and unfounded market expectations, which each time gave way to a stronger fall in the British currency. That is why the movement of the pound/dollar pair this week may well be illogical and consistent with the nature of the incoming news, and all macroeconomic reports can be completely ignored. Thus, the main principle will be the "principle of caution" when trading GBP/USD in the new week.

As for the EUR/USD pair, here from macroeconomic events we can note the report on the change in industrial production in August on Monday, the inflation report for September on Wednesday. The greatest interest, of course, will be caused by the consumer price index, which in recent months has fallen to absolute lows. A value below 1.0% will no longer be considered just low, but critical. And then it can be expected from the ECB and a new reduction in key rates, the quantitative stimulus program in the first months of its operation is unlikely to be changed, but in the future it can be expanded. And for the euro, these are all potential bearish factors. We still believe that in the confrontation with the dollar, a single European trump card is very small. And at the moment, we consider the main factor behind the growth of the euro a banal technical need to be adjusted from time to time. There is no positive news from the EU. Recently, everything is not good in the United States too, but America's economy is still stronger, macroeconomic indicators are higher, monetary policy is tougher. It is these factors that continue to play for the dollar.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:49 am

USD/CAD - Heading downwards

Greetings, dear traders. This time, I will show you a long-term recommendation on an instrument such as USD / CAD.

What is interesting in this instrument now? First of all, the data on unemployment from Canada came out last Friday. Typically, these reports come out simultaneously with American Non-farm (NFP), but this time, the publication was separate. With this impulse, the Canadian dollar strengthened strongly against the US dollar, completely absorbing the abnormal growth a week earlier. At the moment, this indicates a very strong seller in the market.

Since the plan is long-term, its implementation can take from several days to several weeks. Thus, it makes sense to wait for a rollback and consider selling on smaller TFs.

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It's important to understand that a lot of data will be released on Wednesday, such as the base index of retail sales for the American dollar and inflation for the Canadian one. Moreover, regular oil reserves will also affect the Canadian dollar. What is more reasonable here would be to expect the continuation of decline precisely after the release of all these news on Wednesday.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:57 pm

EUR/USD - through thorns to the stars!

Greetings, dear traders. It is time to remember about EUR/USD, which has successfully fulfilled our previous plans. Following GBP/USD, the European currency is now demonstrating a strong bullish direction. It's easy to guess that all these movements are connected with the next portion of news regarding Brexit. If you omit all the fundamental details and focus on how to make money from it, the answer is simple. To take a neat positions in the purchases with a pullback. At the same time, wherever you try to buy, the extreme point of the scenario cancellation is today's minimum at the quote of 1.0991. Therefore, you can limit losses to this level. It is recommended to holding purchases (at least partially) at the level of 1.1064, since this is an important level for sellers over the past few days.

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I wish you success in trading and big profits!

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:17 pm

GBPUSD: The evening promised to be hot. Michel Barnier was optimistic about the agreement on Brexit, but the main move for the Unionist party. The risk of extending the UK's exit

The British pound continues to storm, and after the morning "stuffing" that the deal could be disrupted due to a number of disagreements, the pound resumed its growth on statements from representatives of the EU and the UK. As it became known, according to representatives of the parties, negotiations between the UK and the EU are coming to an end, but the key problems have not yet been resolved. On Wednesday afternoon, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is due to meet with diplomatic representatives of the bloc countries. However, the meeting has been postponed to a later time.

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This was done so that the British prime minister could manage to negotiate an agreement with the Democratic Union Party, since it is precisely its leaders who are still threatening to disrupt Downing Street's plans. Let me remind you that the deal will include the establishment of a regulatory and customs border for the Irish Sea.

Barnier's meeting with European leaders will give an assessment and recommendations on whether to sign an agreement at the EU summit scheduled for late this week or not. European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos has already stated that significant unresolved issues remain in the negotiations on Brexit, noting that Barnier has already submitted his report to the European Commission. In it, the chief negotiator described the negotiations as constructive. Barnier was also optimistic that a deal with Brexit could be reached before the end of this week, but, according to some sources, the report also contains information on the need to extend the UK term for EU membership, which is scheduled for October 31. An extension is necessary even if a deal is reached.

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The market completely ignored the data that the inflation rate in the UK remained stable in September this year. Most of the growth was maintained due to higher prices for hotel services and furniture. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI increased by 1.7% in September compared with the same period last year. In August of this year, the UK CPI was also 1.7%. Let me remind you that the target level of the Bank of England is 2%.

Slowing inflation will help the regulator resort to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which is seriously affected by the situation with Brexit and trade conflicts.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, only a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2840 can lead to the continuation of the upward rally to the area of highs at 1.2920 and 1.2980. In case the pound declines on the evening news, which I mentioned above. Support will be provided by levels 1.2680 and 1.2560.

EURUSD

Eurozone data today did not cause major changes in the EURUSD pair. According to a Eurostat statistics agency report, annual inflation in the eurozone slowed again, which is bad news for the European Central Bank, which in September announced the start of a new phase of stimulating the economy. Thus, the CPI Eurozone CPI in September rose by 0.8% compared to the same period last year.

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Meanwhile, the positive balance of foreign trade in the eurozone increased and amounted to 14.7 billion euros in August 2019 against 11.9 billion euros in August 2018. However, trade conflicts, for which there are no solutions, continue to negatively affect the indicator.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Bulls will continue to fight for the resistance of 1.1060, consolidation above which can provide risky assets to new buyers. If pressure on the euro returns, and this can happen after another unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance at 1.1060, then you can still return to long positions from support in the area of 1.1020, but larger long positions are best postponed until the low of 1.0990 is updated.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:22 pm

GBP/USD. Turns of the British currency: Johnson repeats the path of Theresa May

Passion for Brexit reaches its zenith. In the afternoon, the pound paired with the dollar soared to the borders of the 30th figure (that is, to 5-month highs), responding to a statement by European Commission President Juncker that the deal between London and Brussels is "ready." But literally an hour later, the pair collapsed 200 points down after the first comments by representatives of the British Parliament. The opposition did not skimp on epithets: in particular, Jeremy Corbyn called the draft deal "corrupt", adding that Johnson's dealings were "even worse than Theresa May". However, despite such harsh comments, the market still expects the British prime minister to submit the draft deal to the House of Commons on Saturday.

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For the sixth consecutive day, the pound is subject to strong volatility, showing unprecedented price fluctuations, both in the direction of growth and a downward course. The last time such powerful price spurts were observed in October 2018, when the parties were one step away from signing the deal. The pair jumped from the 34th to the 42nd figure in a few weeks. But then the events did not unfold so rapidly, although in general, the situations are of a similar nature.

At that time, Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator from the European Union, was the main newsmaker. Exactly a year ago, he said that the deal could already be concluded during the EU summit, which, like this year, was held on October 17-18. Brussels and London then were able to find a common denominator in many key issues, moreover, within the framework of Theresa May's Chequers plan, which the future Prime Minister Boris Johnson so eagerly criticized. May proposed to solve the Irish question in a different way: she agreed to establish checkpoints on the border and introduce "certain administrative procedures". EU representatives refused to consider other options, and interpreted the proposed conditions as a compromise. As you know, the deputies of the House of Commons categorically rejected the proposed conditions, failing the vote three times.

The Irish question is still a central issue today. On the one hand, Johnson made more significant concessions from the European Union: the customs border will pass through the Irish Sea, and the same customs rules will apply in Northern Ireland as in the rest of the UK. But on the other hand, such concessions did not satisfy the Northern Irish Unionists. After a two-day political bidding, the DUP issued an official statement declining the deal. In their opinion, the proposed agreement "does not meet the long-term interests of Northern Ireland", and in the short term, residents of this region may face a significant increase in prices.

As mentioned above, Labour also criticized Johnson's deal. And not just because of the Irish border. According to Jeremy Corbyn, the economic part of the agreement threatens the food security of Great Britain, and can also lead to "violation of the rights of workers and environmental standards." Also, according to the Labour leader, the deal will be a blow to the British health care system. Representatives of the Scottish National Party (which has 35 members of the British Parliament) have joined Johnson's critics, adding that they will not vote for the deal.

Thus, at the moment it is not clear how the prime minister plans to "push through" the deal through the millstones of Parliament. Without the support of the Youth Democratic Party, the Labour Party and the Scottish nationalists, he will have to rely on the consolidation of Conservative deputies (20 of whom he expelled from the party for indiscipline) and representatives of other political forces.

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At the same time, according to information from the British press, Johnson in Parliament may express his readiness to violate the law, obliging him to ask Brussels to postpone Brexit. This information may be the usual "bluff" on the part of the current prime minister, but, given the odiousness of his personality, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

In general, according to most experts, if Johnson fails to agree on a deal in Parliament, he will initiate early parliamentary elections to bring the draft deal back to the new House of Commons.

Thus, Johnson will have a difficult battle in the walls of Parliament. Judging by the dynamics of the pound, traders do not lose hope of agreeing on a deal this Saturday: otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will return first to the middle of the 24th figure, and then (less impulsive) to the levels of annual lows, that is, to the bottom of the 20th figure. If a "miracle" happens and the prime minister finds votes in Parliament, the pound paired with the dollar will fly up to 1.35-1.37, up to the 40th figure, after the deal between London and Brussels is officially agreed. And although these price values look abnormally high, it is worth recalling that on the eve of the 2016 referendum, the GBP/USD pair was trading in the area of 1.43-1.46, and after the announcement of the results, the plebiscite plunged to 1.25-1.27 in a few weeks, followed by a decline to the bottom of 20- x figures. "The return trip to an upward direction" may not be so impulsive, but at the same time, the resolution of many years of intrigue will allow the pair to grow by at least 500-600 points. As the saying goes, The Show Must Go On ...

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:43 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 21, 2019

The euro exceeded the closest target level of 1.1155 at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% on Friday, probably on the optimism of investors on a new EU deal with the British prime minister about more favorable conditions for themselves than they were before (Theresa May's options). Today, the British Parliament begins to finalize the deal.

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On the daily chart, the price has consolidated above the line of the descending price channel, the Marlin oscillator shows a reversal only to insignificant depth, therefore the next target of 1.1215 as the Fibonacci level of 100.0% becomes relevant.

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On the four-hour chart, Marlin is expanding deeper, but it has not yet formed a divergence as a reversal formation, which also speaks in favor of the rising scenario. A trend reversal, of course, does not have to be accompanied by divergences, but then the fall of the signal line should be sharp, with the formation of a spike. So, we are waiting for the euro to grow by around 70 points, after which reversal elements may be added to the technical picture.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:12 pm

Pound rushes to the clouds

Despite the almost bare economic calendar, all the attention of investors on forex is focused on the British pound. According to Mark Carney, Great Britain marked the beginning of global uncertainty in 2016, which slowed business activity and GDP in most countries of the world. It can put an end to this by voting for a draft dissolution agreement with the EU. Boris Johnson also called for support of the document, arguing that any delay would harm the interests of the United Kingdom, its EU partners and relations between them. However, the British Parliament may have a different opinion.

The sterling has not responded to macro statistics for a long time and is calling for political news. In this regard, an increase in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9% and disappointing inflation statistics (fact +1.7%, forecast + 1.8% YOY) remained almost unnoticed by investors. All their attention has shifted to Brexit. The prime minister of Great Britain managed to find a common language with the EU. Now he needs 320 votes in Parliament to enter, and not get into the story. In fact, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers needs to lure 61 opponents to his side, which does not seem unrealistic.

According to Goldman Sachs, the chance of a disorderly Brexit dropped to 5%. This circumstance makes the correction potential of GBP/USD limited. MUFG expects the pound to find haven in the range of $1.3-1.35 if lawmakers approve the deal. UBS Global Wealth Management also talks about the $1.35 level. TD-Bank believes that the pair is able to rewrite the May high near 1.3185, however, the contract rejected by the Parliament will trigger a wave of correction to 1.264-1.266. Robobank sees an even deeper low at around 1.22.

Pound Forecasts

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The fact that the bulls continue to dominate the market was shown by the sterling reaction to the decision of MPs to vote for the proposal to postpone the approval of the deal. As a result, Boris Johnson, in order to obey the law, was forced to write a letter to the EU asking that they prolong the transition period. The prime minister did not sign this document and sent another to Donald Tusk, in which he expressed confidence that Britain would leave the EU on October 31. The opposition party believes that the head of the Cabinet of Ministers behaves childishly and threatens him with court in the event of a disorderly Brexit.

In my opinion, everything goes to the point that the deal will be approved by the British Parliament on the falling flag. The bulls on GBP/USD believe this, pushing the pair to the psychologically important mark of 1.3. The fact that they managed to gain a foothold above 1.29 indicates the seriousness of the intentions of sterling buyers.

Technically, after a clear combination of patterns "Shark" and 5-0, the upward trend of the analyzed pair is directed to the target of 261.8% on the AB = CD model. It is located near 1.309. A necessary condition for maintaining control over the pound by the bulls and continuing the rally is to consolidate GBP/USD quotes above the Pivot level of 1.29.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:25 am

GBPUSD and Brexit: Brexit deal may be approved, but its opponents have one more trump card

The pound slightly fell in the morning after reports that the UK government may withdraw its Brexit bill. If the British Parliament votes against the deal today, official London may withdraw the bill he proposed. This will jeopardize the work of Parliament, which will lead to the next election, which may take place before Christmas. Such a situation

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In the meantime, discussion of the bill itself has begun, and the debate may last until late at night, which will periodically exert pressure or support to the British pound. However, many lawmakers would prefer to have more time to study the conditions proposed by Johnson, which has been repeatedly stated. But here we are already talking about moving the Brexit date from October 31 to 2020, which clearly does not suit Boris Johnson.

Even if the prime minister succeeds this week in approving the deal in Parliament, and this happens only if the date of the deal on UK withdrawal from the EU is extended, in the future this scenario will allow amendments to the bill that could completely bury the deal.

Johnson now has a much better chance of making a deal than ever, since on the weekend he secured some support from the Laborites and opponents of Brexit in his Tory party. Just a few votes can allow Johnson to win. However, as I noted above, under the scenario, if Johnson's deal is not ratified, Britain will have general elections and even a referendum on the exit and the EU.

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As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the pound only slightly fell against the US dollar, and this did not lead to significant changes. If the deal is approved, it is unlikely that the pound will break above resistance at 1.3040, which will lead to further growth of the trading instrument in the area of highs 1.3170 and 1.3260. If lawmakers are able to resist the government, then the pressure on the pound will increase, and the decline in GBPUSD under the support of 1.2840 will increase the pressure on the pair even more, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a fall to larger lows of 1.2840 and 1.2670.

EURUSD

In the meantime, traders are closely following the news from the British Parliament, the euro is gradually falling against the US dollar.

This is due to expectations that the European Central Bank may resort to an even greater easing of monetary policy. The European Central Bank will hold its last meeting with Mario Draghi as the head this Thursday. It is expected that Draghi will "slam the door" and go for another reduction in deposit rates, or at least make direct allusions to such measures that can be implemented in December. In the case of this approach, it is not entirely correct to expect purchases of risky assets after a decision on Brexit.

From a technical point of view, further upward movement will occur only after the successful Brexit, otherwise the bears have already coped with the priority task and returned the pair to the support level of 1.1130, which gradually increases the pressure on buyers. Negative news will force them to close their long positions, pulling down the euro to the lows of 1.1090 and 1.1050.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:11 pm

Japan Leading, Coincident Index Data Due On Thursday

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Japan will on Thursday see final August numbers for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The previous reading suggested a score of 91.7 for the leading index and 99.3 for the coincident.

Japan also will see preliminary October figures for the manufacturing PMI from Nikkei and the services and composite indexes from Jibun.

In September, the manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.9, while the services index was at 51.5 and the composite came in at 52.8.

Hong Kong will release September data for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth HKD380.78 billion and exports were at HKD352.73 billion for a trade deficit of HKD28.05 billion.

The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:41 pm

USD / CAD: Sellers in business

Good evening, dear traders. Today, there is a small recommendation on USD / CAD, and the decline of which is now very likely.

The thing is that yesterday's news from Canada caused a great reaction from the market, and in the end, we see that all the news impulses from the buyer were completely absorbed, and this is a harbinger of even a local, but decline.

Therefore, today, I recommend trying to work on the decline of USD / CAD currency pair with a take profit at around 1.3070. Moreover, the maximum point of yesterday's loss will be considered to be the maximum of yesterday's news - the level of 1.3121. If the price updates the maximum, the scenario can be considered completely canceled.

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I wish you success in trading and huge profits!

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