Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Gertrude]

AUD/USD analysis for October 07, 2013



AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week, the AUDUSD pair was trading upwards, corrective wave a (coloured blue) of the bigger wave A (coloured red) was developing. During Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe strong ascending movements from 0.9398 towards the 0.9447 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major currency continued trading upwards and the price reached the 0.9457 level. We can consider this move as the end of the a wave (coloured blue).At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is trading below 0.9403 and we are expecting to see one more push lower, before the price turns higher in the c of (y). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave Y should retrace 123.6% of wave X, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave X with take profit at 0.9542 (123.6% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance point at the 0.9370 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9323 (S2) 0.9355 (S1) 0.9393 (PP) 0.9425 (R1) 0.9463 (R2) 0.9495 (R3) 0.9533

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9410 with stop loss at 0.9370 and take profit at 0.9542 are recommended.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/CAD analysis for October 08, 2013



USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analyses the USDCAD pair has been trading upwards, so we need to look at our alternate count that tells us that wave (y) (coloured green) of the (b) wave (coloured black) is still developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0288 towards the 1.0332 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this commodity currency did not manage to hold this levels and the price has reached a new sessions low at 1.0296. At the moment, the USDCAD pair is trading around 1.0321 and we are expecting to see more bullish movements in the next few sessions. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave Y should retrace 100% of wave X, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave X with take profit at 1.0432 (100% of wave X). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at the 1.0288 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0248 (S2) 1.0270 (S1) 1.0290 (PP) 1.0312 (R1) 1.0332 (R2) 1.0354 (R3) 1.0374

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.0350 with stop loss at 1.0288 and take profit at 1.0632 are recommended.

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[IFX Gertrude]

EURJPY takes trendline support at the 131.00 levels. Remain long



Technical outlook and chart setups:
As depicted here, the currency pair is seen bouncing off the recent/immediate trendline support around the 131.00 area. It is, therefore, recommended to remain long and also initiate further positions at the moment. Till the time the trendline remains intact, the pair should head north towards the 136.00 levels. Supports are at 127.00 followed by 125.00 in the daily chart, while resistance is at 135.00 respectively. Furthermore, the 0.618 fibonacci support is also passing through the same level, producing bullish bounce at the trendline at the moment. On the flip side, only a break of trendline would delay matters further.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long for now, stop at 130.40, a target is open.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Overview
According to our yesterday's expections, the price’s close below the Support level of 21.50 will give new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Support level to trade below and open the way towards 21.70 as the first target, then the metal must test the Support level of 21.70 to get more bearish move till reaching 20.90 as the second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level of 21.20 cancels bearish scenario.

Resistance and support levels:
R3 (23.40),
R2 (22.70),
R1 (22.30),
S1 (22.00),
S2 (21.50),
S3(21.20).

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[IFX Gertrude]

Silver technical levels and trading recommendations for October 18, 2013



Overview
In today's H4 chart, the metal is still trading below the resistance level of 22.00 keeping its move above the upward trendline, and currently silver is testing the resistance level to continue its bullish movement. So we should wait for closing above this resistance area to create a new bearish opportunities. In that case the metal might open its way towards the resistance level of 22.30, then we should wait for breaking this resistance level to continue the bullish move, so we can consider our first target few pips below this resistance level, after that we should wait till reaching the resistance level of 22.50 as the second target.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (22.50), R2 (22.30), R1 (22.00), S1 (21.50), S2 (21.20), S3(20.90).

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[IFX Gertrude]

Silver rallies above the 22.00 levels. Immediate resistance is at 22.50



Technical outlook and chart setups:
The metal rallied above the 22.00 levels yesterday, but it would be facing immediate resistance at the 22.50 levels soon. It is recommended to buy on dips from here on; the area of interest would be between 21.00 and 21.50. Immediate resistance is at 22.50, followed by 23.50, 24.00 and 25.00 on the higher side; while support is just below 21.00, followed by 19.00 and lower respectively. As seen here, the overall rally from 18.00 to 25.00 looks to have retraced to 0.618 fibonacci support; and prices are poised to rally further towards fresh highs of 28.00 and higher from here on. Watch out for dips towards the 21.50/21.00 levels to initiate long positions.

Trading recommendations:
Buy on dips from here on. Set stop at 20.00, target is open.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Silver rallies above past resistance at 22.50. Buy on dips now.



Technical outlook and chart setups:
The metal has rallied above the past initial resistance at the 22.50 levels as depicted here. It is recommended to exit short positions if any and change the trading strategy to buying on dips from here on. Fibonacci retracement levels are pointing towards the 21.30/50 levels as best buy for the next projected rally towards 24.00 and higher. Initial resistance is at 23.40/50, followed by 24.00 and higher up; while intermediary support is at 20.50, followed by 19.00 and 18.00 respectively. Please also note that the falling resistance line, which would act as support now, is also passing across the same region around 21.30/50 for the next potential rally.

Trading recommendations:
Buy on dips towards 21.30/50.

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[IFX Gertrude]

EURJPY retracement should continue further. 1.32 in focus



Technical outlook and chart setups:
The currency pair seems to be poised to retrace further lower towards the 1.32 levels at least, as depicted here. Please note that the rising trendline is also passing through the same levels at the moment. It is recommended to initiate short positions (only 50%) with the risk at the 136.00 levels. Support levels are spread through 131.00-129.00, and 128.00; while resistance is fixed at the 135.50 levels, respectively. A bullish bounce at 132.00 would be favourable for building long positions again. In the short term, expect prices to retrace lower at least.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate short positions in small capacity, stop is at 136.00 target is at132.00

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[IFX Gertrude]

Gold begins retracement. 1,280-1,300 is the best buy



Technical outlook and chart setups:
The metal looks to have begun retracement lower towards the1,280-1,300 area, as seen in the 4H chart. It is recommended to initiate long positions around the fibonacci 0.618 support area at 1,280/90. Though it remains possible that prices may dip further to the 1,275.00 levels before rallying further up. The 1,280/90 area is the best buy due to confluences of Fibonacci retracement levels, backside of the trend line that is support now, and a potential right shoulder of a possible inverted head-and-shoulder reversal here. Only a break of 1,250.00 would be a worry for the bulls now.

Trading recommendations:
Look to buy lower from here.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Silver retracement begins. The 21.20/50 levels in sight



Technical outlook and chart setups:
The metal structure is unchanged from what has been discussed recently. The retracement began yesterday as it had been expected few sessions ago, and expectations are towards the 21.20/50 levels at least. Support levels are spread through the 20.50 levels, followed by 19.00 and sub 18.00 levels, while resistance levels are spread through the 23.50 levels, followed by 24.50 and higher, respectively. Till the time 20.50 is intact, the trend has possibly reversed to long-term and higher levels at 25.00 can be expected soon after retracement is finished.

Trading recommendations:
Look to buy lower.

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