Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:47 am

Gold emerges from sleep mode

The problems surrounding the tax reform and the related weakness of the US dollar allowed "bulls" for the XAU/USD to go into a counter-attack. Gold enjoys an increased demand for safe-haven during conditions when the risks of correction of the S&P 500 significantly grows. Indeed, the desire of Senate Republicans to connect its plan of repairing the fiscal system with the dismantling of Obamacare, appears to be ideal. To a certain degree, the chances of a compromise plan through Congress before the end of 2017 are extremely low, even though Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and economic adviser to the President Gary Cohn claim otherwise. Along with the approaching date when the problem of the ceiling of the national debt should be solved, this factor forces investors to get rid of the shares.

The tightening of monetary policy and the reduction in the balance sheet of the Fed are "bearish" drivers for the S&P 500, which grew due to hopes of an implementation in the tax reform. Now this prize at the stock index is ready for the taking. As a result, investors flee from risk, which is clearly visible as currencies of developing countries are being sold. I do not think that the panic will last long. The Fed remains committed to an extremely slow normalization, the health of the US economy does not cause concern, and the devaluation of the dollar contributes to improved corporate earnings reports. This is not the best news for the recovery of the precious metal from the "bullish" trend in the US stock market.

For more than a month, gold traded in the range of 3.3%, the narrowest since February 2013, while its volatility is at its lowest level in the last 7 years. The yellow metal went into a sleep mode, bulls expect to support short-term drivers of growth, while the medium and long-term outlook for XAU/USD appears "bearish." When central banks move from unconventional to traditional monetary policy, and the global yield of debt markets begins to move away from the area of long-term lows, it is possible to forget about the recovery of the long-term upward trend.

Dynamics of the yield of US and gold bonds

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Source: Bloomberg.
At the same time, record shows that from June 2004 to June 2006, when the federal funds rate increased to 5.25%, gold prices rose 50%. From June 1999 to May 2000, the growth rate to 6.5% allowed the precious metal to add 6% to its value. What's the problem? In my opinion, parallels are unlikely to hold parallels, because the asset reacts sensitively to real rates of the debt market, and in conditions of sluggish inflation, the increase in nominal yield will put pressure on prices. Simply put, reasons must be sought in different CPI growth rates in the 2000s and now. It is highly unlikely that the XAU/USD pair will rise above $1,500 an ounce before the US economy plunges into a new recession.

Technically, the release of precious metals beyond the downstream channel increases the risk of an activation of the "Dragon" pattern and the continuation of a downward trend in the direction of $1320 per ounce and above. In order for this scenario to turn into reality, a strike on $1302 is required.

Gold, daily chart

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:05 am

Bulls on the euro need a breather

The US dollar managed to partially restore its positions against the European currency after a major decline, which was observed for several days in a row.

Inflation data in the US slightly affected the quotes of the EUR / USD, but the statements by the officials of the Fed, which were scheduled for the second half of the day, led to the closure of a portion of long positions in the euro.

Fed spokesman Eric Rosengren said yesterday that the data favors higher interest rates in December, and low inflation gives the Fed space for a gradual increase in rates. In his opinion, a very low unemployment rate, which is likely to fall below 4%, will sooner or later push up inflation. Rosengren also believes that the banking system is now in a much better state than before the recession.

Today there will be a number of important data on the US labor market, which can confirm the forecasts of officials of the Fed.

As for the technical picture, the large resistance level 1.1855, which coincides with the upper limit of the medium-term side channel. Only its breakdown can form a new upward wave, capable of updating the annual highs.

The Australian dollar is in the middle of the last five years.

According to the Australian National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in October, while economists expected it to remain unchanged at 5.5%. The number of employees in October increased by 3,700, while the expected growth of 19,000. The number of full-time jobs increased by 24,000.

Despite this, many analysts say that the pressure on the Australian dollar is due to weak growth in the third quarter of this year, as well as to the Central Bank's lowering of the long-term inflation forecasts, which crosses out the likelihood of an upswing in interest rates in Australia.

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As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD, the trade is near important support levels located in the 0.7580 area and 0.7535, where large buyers can return to the market again. Counting on a more powerful upward momentum, 0.7675, 0.7775, which will lead to an immediate increase in the Australian dollar to the areas of 0.7675 and 0.7735.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:38 am

The Euro used its chance

Eurozone
The euro took full advantage of the rise of political risks in the US when it passed the tax reform plan through Congress, restoring half of the losses from the reduction of the last one and a half months, but in order to question the reversal of the trend to the south, something more important is required.

Inflation in the eurozone continues to be low. The price growth in October was only 0.1%, the while growth of the core indicator slowed to 0.9% year-on-year. The weak indicators call into question the ECB's willingness to continue the policy of exiting the soft monetary policy.

The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, speaking on Friday at a conference in Frankfurt, said that the low-interest policy does not harm the income of European banks that have remained stable over the past two years and, moreover, added that the asset repurchase program can be continued after September 2018, "if it is necessary".

The euro, therefore, immediately lost the driver to growth and went into the lateral range. Most likely, it will continue to be cautious about the direction of the movement and at the beginning of the new week due to the lack of significant macroeconomic releases. On Thursday, the report PMI Markit on the eurozone countries, the forecasts are favorable, with the production index very close to the highs of the last nine years, the service sector index lags behind insignificantly.

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Given that the earlier reports released earlier by Ifo and ZEW indicated further growth of consumer confidence, the growth of Markit indices should be expected, which in turn can support the euro.

Also on Thursday, the minutes of the ECB meeting of October 26 will be published. In the light of Draghi's latest comments, the market will be looking for an answer to the question whether the probability of announcing the exact date of completion of the asset buy-back program was announced at the meeting, as the answer to this question may change the long-term expectations for the euro.

For a break above 1.1850 euros more weighty reasons are required. More likely is the consolidation at the achieved levels with the resumption of the activity of bears and the move towards support level of 1.16.

United Kingdom
The report on retail sales published on Thursday could not provide the pound any support, despite the fact that the dollar was exposed to considerable pressure. Retail sales increased by 0.3% in October; this was slightly higher than market expectations, but on an annual basis, it showed a decline of 0.3%, meaning consumer activity continues to be very low. Despite the fact that prices grew quite confidently, the physical volume of goods sold remained at the levels of a year ago, which indicates certain problems in the consumer sector.

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Oil
Oil by the close of the week resumed growth, responding to the reduction of the threat of Venezuela's default and the weekly report of Baker Hughes, according to which the rise in the number of active drilling rigs stopped. The current level of quotes , apparently, by the shale industry is perceived as insufficient to significantly resume investments, and without new drilling wells it is difficult to keep production at current levels, given the high rate of their depletion.

The threat of deep correction has decreased, but the chance to update the two-year high, on the contrary, has increased. The market will catch the insider about the upcoming meeting of OPEC +, one must assume that the general background remains favorable for oil.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:23 am

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 21, 2017

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There is no Economic Data will be released when the European market opens, but the US will release the Economic Data, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1801.
Strong Resistance:1.1794.
Original Resistance: 1.1782.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1770.
Target Inner Area: 1.1742.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1715.
Original Support: 1.1703.
Strong Support: 1.1691.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1684.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:52 am

The growth potential of the pound is limited

The British pound declined against the US dollar following the release of a report, which indicated that the UK government in October this year was forced to borrow more money compared to the same period last year.

This is directly related to the acceleration of inflation, which led to an increase in the costs of debt servicing.

According to the official report of the National Bureau of Statistics, the net borrowing of the UK public sector in October 2017 had amounted to 8 billion British pounds, which is 0.5 billion pounds higher than it was in October of last year. Economists had expected that borrowings would amount to £7.5 billion.

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In case the GBPUSD pair drops to catch hold of the resistance at 1.3260, pressure on the British pound would only increase in the near future, which will lead to the renewal of 1.3180 and 1.3140.

Data on the balance of foreign trade will positively affect the overall GDP of Switzerland for the 3rd quarter of this year. As noted in the report, the surplus increased due to the weakening of the Swiss franc in October this year, which had a positive impact on the foreign trade balance.

Therefore, the positive balance of foreign trade in October 2017 amounted to 2.4 billion francs, while exports grew by 2.3% compared to the same period in 2016.

The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar following a speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Let me remind you that the morning minutes of the RBA, which were prepared after the last meeting, had a negative impact on the Australian dollar.

Philip Lowe said that at the moment there is no special reason to raise interest rates in the near future, and it will be more appropriate to keep rates low for quite a long time.

The growth of the Australian dollar could also occur due to the fact that some major players were afraid of hints from the RBA's governor about the possibility of further lowering of rates. However, Lowe said that in case of further improvement in the economic situation, the increase in rates is more likely than its decrease. According to the head of the RBA, in the economy of Australia there are unused capacities, while restrained growth of wages continues to subdue inflation.

As for the technical picture of the AUDUSD pair, after going beyond the large support level of 0.7630, the pressure on the Australian dollar increased, which led to the renewal of new large levels of 0.7530 with the formation of the forecast for the exit at 0.7500, where a significant profit taking on short positions will occur.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:21 am

The preparation for Brexit allocated 3 billion pounds

The EURUSD pair spent the first half of Wednesday in a narrow lateral channel, while traders were preparing for the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes.

Data on the US economy hurt the upward momentum of the US dollar.

According to the report, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time has declined. This indicates a recovery of the labor market after the autumn hurricanes.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from 12 to 18 of November fell by 13,000 and amounted to 239,000. Economists had expected the number of new applications last week to be 240,000.

A good report on the labor market was offset by weak data on orders for durable goods in the US, which fell in October, much worse than economists predicted.

Such data indicates that Americans are making less expensive purchases, which will negatively affect US manufacturers.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods in October 2017 decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month, amounting to 236 billion US dollars. In September, orders rose by 2.2%. Economists predicted an increase in orders by 0.2%.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, only a breakout of the 1.1755-60 range would lead to a larger upward wave in the trading instrument with an update of 1.1800 and a monthly peak output in the area of 1.1860. If the Fed's report contains something interesting about the prospect of tightening monetary policy in December of this year, the demand for the US dollar may rise, which will lead to a return towards the region of large levels of support at 1.1680 and 1.1640.

The British pound strengthened its position against the US dollar following the speech of the Ministry of Finance in the UK. Hammond said that the ministry is preparing for any possible outcome of Brexit, and that the preparation allocated 3 billion pounds.

Furthermore, the economic forecast was lowered, according to which the GDP of the UK for 2017 will grow by only 1.5%, and not by 2%, as predicted earlier. Forecast GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019. As Hammond noted, lowering growth forecasts is due to weak labor productivity.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:50 am

Euro does not have enough momentum

The euro returned to the high of the day following the release of upbeat data for Germany and the eurozone as a whole, indicating a resurgence of economic growth in the 3rd quarter of this year.

According to the data, Germany's economy in the third quarter of this year has expanded due to growth in exports and investments of companies. The report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Germany Destatis says that the gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2017 increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same period in 2016, GDP grew by 3.3%.

Germany's exports in the third quarter grew by 1.7% compared to the previous quarter, while investments increased by 1.5%.

The Manufacturing PMI in Germany also increased significantly, reaching 62.5 points, better than the forecasts of economists, who expected growth to reach 60.4 points.

The sentiment in the manufacturing sector of France rose in November. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of France, Insee, the composite index of purchasing managers in France rose to 60.1 points in November, compared to 57.4 points in October. The Bureau of Statistics also pointed out that the broader indicator of confidence increased by two points in November, to 111 points.

The euro zone's purchasing managers index can also provide good support to the European economy, which will lead to an increase in demand for the European currency at the end of the year.

According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers in November 2017 rose to 57.5 points from 56.0 points in October.

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Minutes of the ECB did not lead to a new wave of growth in the euro.

The report indicates that the ECB management at the meeting in October had differed on the timing of the completion of the quantitative easing program. However, it agreed to assess the impact of the program of buying corporate bonds. It should be noted that the European Central Bank announced that it is extending the program of bond purchasing until September 2018. However, since December of this year, the volume of monthly purchases will be reduced to 30 billion euros from 60 billion euros earlier.

As a result of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, market volatility remains low. The technical picture remained without significant changes.

Buyers of risky assets are prepared to enter new monthly highs. However, in order for this to happen it is necessary to break through a large resistance of 1.1840, which may lead to an increase in long positions and an update to levels like 1.1880 and 1.1910.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:16 am

AUD/USD testing major resistance, time to start selling

The price is testing major resistance at 0.7629 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a strong drop from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7537 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 96% where we expect a corresponding reaction off. Correlation analysis: NZDUSD is similarly expecting a strong drop.

Sell below 0.7629. Stop loss isat 0.7670. Take profit is at 0.7537

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:29 am

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 28, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as German GfK Consumer Climate, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Goods Trade Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1962.
Strong Resistance:1.1955.
Original Resistance: 1.1944.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1933.
Target Inner Area: 1.1905.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1877.
Original Support: 1.1866.
Strong Support: 1.1855.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1848

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:47 am

Stress tests and forecast for world economic growth

The euro continued to decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, November 28, despite good data on lending to private eurozone companies.

According to the report, lending in October rose, indicating the recovery of the eurozone economy.

According to the European Central Bank, lending to private sector non-financial companies in October this year had increased by 2.9% compared to the same period last year. Household lending increased by 2.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The monetary aggregate M3 in October this year increased by 5%.

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Data on the optimism of German consumers slightly supported the euro during the afternoon. According to the report of the German institute GfK, the leading index of consumer sentiment remained unchanged in December compared to November and amounted to 10.7 points. Economists had expected that the index would rise to 10.8 points in December. As stated in the report, the sentiments of German households remain at a high level, as well as expectations about the future.

On Tuesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released a report, which raised forecasts for the growth of the world economy for the next year. This happened due to a good rate of growth in the US and the euro area.

According to the data, for this year, forecasts have been raised to 2.2% for the US economy and 2.4% for the euro area economy. In 2018, it is expected that the US economy will grow by 2.5%, and the eurozone - by 2.1%. Without any changes, forecasts for the growth of China's economy remained unchanged, but the data for Canada was revised downwards.

The OECD expects the world economy to grow by 3.6% this year, while in September it was forecasting an increase of 3.5%. In 2018, world growth should be at the level of 3.7%.

The British pound declined after the release of stress tests from the Bank of England.

Stress tests of the Bank of England were conducted at Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Standard Chartered. It must be noted that back in 2016, Barclays and RBS failed stress tests, but then increased their capital.

The report shows that the Bank of England decided to raise the requirements for the capital buffer to 1% by the end of 2018 from 0.5% at present. This is done primarily in order to protect the banks of the UK from the adverse effects on the part of Brexit. The Bank of England also said that the current scenario of stress tests implies risks that may be associated with Brexit, and therefore the British banking system will continue to support the economy in the event of an unorganized Brexit.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

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