Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro closed at the opening level on Monday, supported by the target level of 1.1265. The Marlin oscillator has strengthened the decline on a daily basis. On the first attempt, the price failed to overcome the immediate support, today we are waiting for a more successful attempt. Target at 1.1200.



Price taking above support at 1.1265 is visible on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is on the territory of the declining trend - in the lower half of negative values. We are waiting for the price to try overcoming the nearest support and decrease to 1.1200 and further to 1.1125 - to the price channel line on the daily.



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[IFX Gertrude]

USA on verge of bankruptcy



The Economist columnist John Williams believes that the unprecedented printing of money may lead to runaway inflation and the depreciation of the global currencies. In his opinion, the US financial system has totally gone the limit and will save not only every bank, but also every financial institution as well as the stock market.

The expert also claims that the real unemployment rate in the US is 35% now instead of 13% reported by the US Labor Department. His opinion is well-founded, as Mr. Williams is the creator of the Shadowstats website. He claims that there, statistics is collected without tricks that are regularly used by the government to make numbers look better.

John Williams considers that the US GDP will fall by about 50% in the second quarter thus hitting the bottom. A real renewal should be expected no earlier than in the fourth quarter because in April, the US industrial production slumped to a record low over the past century. Besides retail sales fell by 60-80%.

He believes that the price of gold and silver will rise significantly very soon.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its forecasts for the economy: GDP at 6.5% for 2020, and 5.0% for 2021, inflation forecast for this year was 0.8%, and 1.6% for the future. The regulator expects an unemployment rate of 9.3% this year and 6.5% in the year 2021. The dollar index lost 0.32%, while the euro grew by 33 points. The only forecast of the Fed which raises a clear doubt, is the forecast for inflation. The release of huge money supply into the open market in the framework of combating the epidemic and supporting the unemployed population cannot but cause much stronger inflation. Very soon, the Fed will be forced to raise rates even contrary to an earlier promise not to do so before the end of the year. However, for the remaining six months, you can still manipulate statistics so that this is not very obvious, and shift the focus from developing inflation to employment problems. As a result, the euro is unlikely to continue to strengthen on yesterday's data from the Fed, investors understand the unreliability of these forecasts.



The euro is staying in the range of target levels 1.1322-1.1416. According to the Marlin oscillator, a small divergence forms on the daily chart, but this can become a reversal signal.



Divergence is more pronounced on the four-hour chart. Consolidating the price under 1.1322, which will also correspond to the price falling below the MACD line (it is going up), opens the underlying consecutive goals: 1.1265, 1.1200, 1.1125.

Consolidating the price over 1.1416 may extend the current branch to 1.1495.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Control zones for USD/CAD on June 12, 2020

The bullish movement of the quotes yesterday was 300 pips, which indicates the strength of the buyers. Any fall of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to enter buy positions, since the probability of updating the weekly high is 75%, which makes long positions profitable.



The most favorable levels for buy positions are within the limits of the WCZ 1/2 1.3524-1.3509, a test of which will be decisive for the bullish impulse.

Today, the pair is trading within the average weekly move, which increases the likelihood of a downward correction. The fall will occur against yesterday's strong movement, so entering sell positions is quite risky. Instead, use the drop as an opportunity to find a favorable level for buy positions in the trading instrument.



Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 42 points last Friday. It did not reach the target level of 1.1200 by 13 points, we are waiting for its development in the near future and only after that a local correction in the range of 1.1200/65. A small divergence on the Marlin oscillator continues to remain in force. Overcoming the price level of 1.2000 will allow the price to fall even deeper, to the price channel line in the region of 1.1120.



The price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, the price is kept below the level of 1.1265. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, from the lower border of which it has turned up, which indicates that the price will likely fall only in the evening.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for AUD/USD on June 16, 2020

AUD/USD
Yesterday evening, the aggressive growth of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's statement about the intention to buy corporate bonds from the secondary market pushed the Australian currency up, it ended the day above a strong technical level of 0.6900. The Marlin oscillator is growing; formally, the target 0.7080 is open before the price.



Considering the situation on a smaller four-hour chart indicates the presence of an alternative scenario that has a high probability of implementation - a price reversal from current levels, from the notched MACD line (indicator blue). The Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values. Price taking above yesterday's high will still launch the first scenario with an increase to 0.7080. We are waiting for the development of the situation.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD price moved towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2674, but bulls was not strong enough to break through it and the price reversed. The market conditions are now bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might risk another wave up from the current levels towards the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2747. Nevertheless, they have to violate the level of 1.2674 first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2645.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3034
WR2 - 1.2910
WR1 - 1.2681
Weekly Pivot - 1.2581
WS1 - 1.2343
WS2 - 1.2226
WS3 - 1.2014

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 18, 2020

USD/JPY
The yen strengthened by 30 points on Wednesday due to lower stock indices, which looks like a decrease in the USD/JPY pair on the chart. Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 0.36%, while the Nikkei 225 is losing 1.22% today. The price went below the MACD line on the daily chart, while Marlin is declining. The target at 105.90 as support for the embedded line of the price channel is open. In case we overcome support, we expect the price at the second target of 105.40.



The price has consolidated under the red balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, and the Marlin oscillator line has entered the declining trend zone this morning. We are waiting for prices at the first target of 105.90.



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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/CHF price movement, June 19, 2020



On the 4 hour chart now, we can see that USD/CHF is now moving in a narrow range. Overall, this pair has already formed a Triangle Pattern. It means that the USD/CHF pair will soon decline especially if this pair breaks out and closes bellow the red rectangle/ It will break through 0.9480 and 0.9375. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not rise and close above 0.9553.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2020

EUR/USD
Last Friday, buyers of the dollar managed to restrain the onslaught of the euro bulls and keep the single currency in a downward local trend of the last ten days. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has penetrated the territory of the bears, now it is easier for the market trend to reach the target along the embedded line of the price channel of 1.1115. Overcoming this support opens the second target of 1.1010.



The four-hour chart shows that the euro's growth in the first half of the day was restrained by the balance indicator line, that is, the growth occurred in the framework of the general decreasing trend, which strengthens this trend itself. Now in the struggle of the local trend with convergence, the Marlin oscillator has a higher chance of winning the trend. We are waiting for the price at 1.1115.



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