Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Gertrude]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 7, 2020



Crypto Industry News:
According to a recent SEC disclosure by the Greyscale Ethereum Trust, or ETHE, Ethereum's impending shift to proof-of-stake consensus is a risk that could have a "material adverse effect" on its stock.

ETHE has recently applied to the regulator to become a SEC reporting company. Such companies are required to discuss risk factors that may adversely affect their results in all quarterly and annual reports.

In one section, which aims to outline the potential threats to the fund's future, it was noted that upgrading to ETH 2.0 may cause some difficulties for investors:

"The digital asset network's consensus mechanism is an essential aspect of its source code, and any failure to properly implement such a change could have a significant negative impact on the ETH value."

The report mentions that the inability to properly implement these changes may result in a temporary or permanent bifurcation which could have a negative impact on ETHE's stock.

It seems that the upcoming modernization so far does not diminish investors' interest in the fund. On the contrary, the assets of the Trust it manages have grown exponentially over the past year, from $ 67 million to over $ 800 million at the time of publication.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair had failed to break through the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down and suddenly reversed all the previous gains. The local trend line support had been violated as well and the pair made a new local low seen at the level of $332.46. There was some Pin Bar candlestick made at the end of the move down, so a small bounce is possible up to the level of $345.20. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $403.75
WR2 - $387.38
WR1 - $368.10
Weekly Pivot - $351.05
WS1 - $333.15
WS2 - $315.51
WS3 - $296.13

Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for USD/JPY on October 8, 2020

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen was able to overcome the resistance of two indicator lines at once - balance and MACD, and today it continues to rise above them. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in the zone of positive values, the nearest target at 106.34 is open, we are waiting for the moment we overcome this resistance - the embedded price channel line, and for the price to rise to the 106.96 level - to the high of August 28.



The price continues to steadily grow above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is rising in the zone where bulls are in control. We are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to grow further. Today's report on the balance of payments for the month of August, which showed growth from 0.96 trillion yen to 1.65 trillion yen, provides optimism for Japanese investors.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 9, 2020




Technical Market Outlook:
Despite the recent bounce from the upper channel line seen at the level of 1.2848, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017. The bounce indicated some bullish pressure at this level and the upper channel line is being guarded strongly, but after some time we can see the momentum decreased and the Pound is trading horizontally. However, if the price will enter the old main channel zone, then the sell-off might accelerate, so the key technical support is again seen at the level of 1.2848. The next target for bulls after the bounce is seen at the level of 1.2979.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3265
WR2 - 1.3116
WR1 - 1.3034
Weekly Pivot - 1.2892
WS1 - 1.2811
WS2 - 1.2658
WS3 - 1.2571

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 12, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro pulled away from the 1.1754 level last Friday and went beyond the resistance of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has entered the positive zone, indicating the prospect of price growth. The growth target is the MACD line at the 1.1910 level, which coincides with the high on July 31 (blue mark).



The price settled above the signal level of 1.1810 on the four-hour chart, and even today's gap could not outwit this support. Marlin rises in the bullish zone. But the price forms a double or even, albeit not quite clear, triple divergence with the oscillator. And here, after slightly struggling above the signal level, a downward reversal is possible.



Forming the final downward trend in the medium-term trend will progress if the price settles below the target level of 1.1754. It is possible that by the time the price attacks this level, the MACD line will also approach it.

The euro's growth looks strong on the daily chart, we will determine the probability of rising to 1.1910 at 60%, but the market can easily take advantage of the remaining 40% of the reversal scenario. The first condition for further growth is when the price settles above the Friday high. We are waiting for the development of events.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

AUD/USD forecast for October 13, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar did not close the gap at the opening of the week, so the current decline of 65 points from Friday's close may only be a correction from the growth of the previous days. According to Monday's review, the possible growth will also have the character of a correction from the movement starting September 1 and may end before reaching any of the target levels even at the nearest 0.7270.



The Marlin oscillator went into a downward trend zone. Formally, this means that the price is moving towards the first target level of 0.7055, but let's look at the situation on a smaller chart.



On the H4 chart, there is currently no price fixing under the level of 0.7190. The next candle should open under this level to achieve this. Also, the price remains above the Kruzenshtern indicator line at 0.7143 and even above the balance indicator line, i.e. the observed decline occurs within the growing short-term trend. Only the Marlin oscillator reminds the price that it is time to finish with growth but is still weak.

So, for the development of a downward scenario in the short term up to two weeks, the price should be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line below 0.7143. In the case of a medium-term decline in the AUD/USD currency pair, the impact of the gap (especially insignificant) can be ignored, sometimes they are closed only after a few years.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 14, 2020

EUR/USD
The S&P 500 lost 0.63% on Tuesday, on the news that Johnson & Johnson's anti-skin vaccine trial was suspended due to severe side effects, and so the euro fell by 66 points. This, as we see it, stopped the speculative growth over the euro that has been ongoing for the past two weeks. The price moved below the target level of 1.1754, having reversed from the resistance of the balance line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is back in the negative territory. Now we are waiting for the price to drop to the target level of 1.1650, then to 1.1550 (November 2017 low).



The price settled under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the negative zone. Conditions for a further decline have been formed, we are waiting for the price at the indicated levels.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 15, 2020

EUR/USD
The situation has not changed for the euro over the past day. Trading was weak on Wednesday, the price is also settling below the 1.1754 level. The Marlin oscillator moves along the border that separates the growth zone from the decline zone on the daily chart. Outwardly, the situation is neutral, but the price is developing below the red balance indicator line, which means consolidating in a dynamic downward trend. The 1.1650 target is dominant, the probability of reaching it is 65-70%.



The four-hour chart shows that yesterday's attempt to go beyond the area above the MACD line turned out to be weak, the price has already settled below it and is ready to continue its decline. The Marlin oscillator is growing in the downward trend zone, but this growth in structure is the indicator unloading before declining even deeper.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 16, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro opened and ended Thursday at 1.1754, the area which is below the key level of the lower boundary of the monthly range of the second half of August and the first half of September. This means that the initial condition for the medium-term downward trend has been met. We are waiting for the price to fall to 1.1315. But the euro's first target is the 1.1650 level, followed by the second target at 1.1550 - the November 2017 low. The Marlin oscillator has strengthened in the territory of the downward trend zone.



According to the indicators, the trend is downward on the four-hour chart, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply turned upwards, which may indicate a deepening correction. The limit for the corrective growth is the 1.1754 level . The price will give a new downward momentum if the price moves below yesterday's low of 1.1688.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 19, 2020



Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been seen moving lower at the beginning of the trading week. The last lower low was made at the level of 1.1688, just below the technical support seen at the level of 1.1696 and this is the next target for the bears. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1746. Despite the oversold conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative, which support the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1924
WR2 - 1.1873
WR1 - 1.1783
Weekly Pivot - 1.1733
WS1 - 1.1641
WS2 - 1.1593
WS3 - 1.1509

Trading Recommendations:
Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top seen at the level of 1.2004. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Gertrude]

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 20, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro has grown by 50 points on Monday. News agencies attribute the growth to hopes for a stimulus package in the United States before the presidential election and the imminent appearance of a coronavirus vaccine. As a rule, there are two cases why the media releases information: to cover up speculative operations, and when no one knows the reason. At the moment, we do not see any sense in speculative operations, respectively, this is how large players operate. Appetite for risk in the market has not increased, as US stock indexes lost around one and a half percent yesterday.



Nevertheless, the momentum is set, the price could slightly rise a little more before it decisively falls. The growth target could be the October 6 high at 1.1808. The price crossed the balance indicator line on the daily chart, while Marlin entered the growth zone. A delay above the levels will strengthen the bulls' position and the pair could grow to 1.1915 in the near future - to the MACD line on the daily timeframe. If the pair closes below 1.1754, which will also correspond to the close below the balance line, then a deeper movement down to the target levels 1.1650 and 1.1550 will begin tomorrow.



The price settled above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the positive zone, indicating a short-term downward reversal. Here the situation repeats the daily scenarios - the price settling below 1.1754, respectively, and below the MACD line, will become a platform for reaching 1.1650. Settling in the area above 1.1808 will not yet be a condition for rising to 1.1915 just yet, as there are other resistances along this speculative and volatile path. For example, 1.1831 is the peak on October 9.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.