Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:29 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 20, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro gained 13 points on Wednesday as part of a moderate expected correction after the previous three-figure fall. The growth could have been greater, but this was hindered by the fall of the British pound and the Japanese yen and the report on the eurozone balance of payments for December, which showed a balance of 32.6 billion euros against expectations of 34.5 billion. Data on the laying of new homes in the US for January showed a small decrease: 1.57 million against 1.63 million a month earlier, but the issued building permits increased from 1.42 million to 1.56 million, showing the highest figure since January 2007. Published minutes from the last FOMC Fed meeting showed nothing interesting.

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On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is pointing upward, it is possible to continue the correction to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0840. The main objectives of declining 1.0745 and 1.0650/80 are maintained.

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On the four-hour chart, the double convergence according to Marlin retains its potential effect, which may result in continued price growth, but the signal line of the oscillator stopped at the boundary with the territory of growth. Its withdrawal under its own support (the turquoise line) neutralizes the influence of convergence. This will happen if the price goes below yesterday's low.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:06 pm

AUD/USD. "There would be a reason, but there will be a seller": aussie slumps to multi-year lows

The Australian dollar today completely lost ground: after the release of conflicting data on the labor market in Australia, the AUD/USD pair fell while updating multi-year lows. The last time the price was at such lows was 11 years ago - back in 2009. It should be noted right away that such price dynamics are caused not only by a weak macroeconomic report - first of all, traders are concerned about the prospects of the RBA monetary policy. Published on Tuesday, the minutes of the Australian central bank's last meeting fueled speculation on this subject, while today's release has become a kind of "last straw".

Let me remind you that at the end of the first meeting of the RBA this year, the regulator voiced a signal that it does not exclude further easing of monetary policy. The minutes of this meeting, published the day before yesterday, somewhat eased concern about the dovish intentions of the central bank. The Australian regulator acknowledged that the risks of further easing monetary policy parameters "outweigh its benefits." That is, on the one hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to resort to decisive action in response to the slowdown of the national economy and the economy of China. On the other hand, members of the central bank stated the need to "balance the risks that inevitably involve even lower interest rates."

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The market interpreted this wording in favor of the Australian currency - they say, the central bank will resort to lower rates only in extraordinary situations. That is why the rather dovish minutes exerted a slight downward pressure on the pair.

Nevertheless, the minutes of the February meeting laid the foundation for strong volatility for the pair in the future. The fact is that the RBA members "linked" the issue of monetary easing with the dynamics of Australia's key macroeconomic indicators. According to them, the need to reduce rates depends on progress or regression in achieving the central bank's goals for inflation and employment. This suggests that the data on the growth of the Australian labor market and the main indicators of inflation are now viewed by the market through the prism of further prospects for the RBA monetary policy.

Actually, for this reason, the aussie slumped in almost all of the pairs today (not only against the US dollar). Published data reinforced rumors that the regulator will lower rates this spring. In particular, according to the Bank of Australia, the RBA members will announce this step at the March meeting, and they will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points in April .

In my opinion, the regulator will take a wait-and-see attitude approximately until the summer. Firstly, by this time it will become clear how seriously the coronavirus slowed down the Chinese economy (and, as a consequence, the world economy). Secondly, the Australian regulator in six months will be able to see a more complete picture regarding the dynamics of indicators of the national economy.

In fairness, it is worth saying that the latest Australian labor market data was not catastrophic. The market focused on rising unemployment to 5.3% - this fact served as a kind of red flag for traders who panicked over the rate cut this spring. Although the remaining components came out better than expected. For example, the number of employees in January increased by 13 thousand, while experts expected growth by only 10 thousand. Another positive point of today's report is the growth of full employment. This component jumped to 46 thousand. On the contrary, part-time employment declined by 32 thousand. This trend can have a positive effect on the dynamics of wage growth, as regular positions, as a rule, offer a higher level of wages and a higher level of social security. The share of the able-bodied population was 66.1% (with a forecast of growth to 66.0%). This fact, in theory, was supposed to partially offset the negative effect of rising unemployment.

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Thus, the Australian today fell under the hot hand of traders who were ready to sell the aussie since Tuesday, when the minutes of the last RBA meeting were published. Today, the market has gotten a chance to fulfill its intentions: an increase in unemployment has become a signal that the regulator will nevertheless lower the rate in the foreseeable future. In my opinion, this conclusion seems premature, but the principle of sell by rumors still works. In addition, the general hegemony of the US dollar and the ongoing panic over the spread of coronavirus reinforces the pair's downward momentum. Bears overcame almost all levels of support, heading towards the 65th figure. If the fundamental picture for the pair does not change, then sellers will test the most powerful support level in the near future, which is located at 0.6570 and corresponds to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:30 am

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 24/02/2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair rallied through all the near technical resistance levels located at 1.2871, 1.2904, 1.2939 and 1.2962, but eventually, bulls did not make it through the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2988. The market had made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern around this level and the bears took control over the market. Currently, the price is coming off the hight and traders around the level of 1.2939. The larger timeframe trend remains up, but the recent breakout from the consolidation zone is a signal, that the uptrend might be reversed soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3255

WR2 - 1.3152

WR1 - 1.3043

Weekly Pivot - 1.2942

WS1 - 1.2840

WS2 - 1.2740

WS3 - 1.2640

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down in the longer term, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3512.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:58 am

Trading plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD on 02.25.2020

What is happening in the currency market raises more and more questions especially if you look at the behavior of the single European currency and the pound, which behave in completely different ways. And it would be nice if this happened under the influence of certain macroeconomic data or political events both in the European Union and Great Britain. So no, nothing of the kind happened yesterday.

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At the same time, as usual, the market completely ignored the rather secondary data on Germany. We are talking about the IFO indices, which remained completely without any attention. At the same time, the business optimism index increased from 96.0 to 96.1, but the current situation assessment indicator declined from 99.2 to 98.9. In turn, the expectations index rose from 92.9 to 93.4. At the same time, it is surprising how expectations can grow if the current situation worsens. So, on the whole, the data can be characterized as multi-directional, and no conclusions can be drawn from them. Moreover, the lack of reaction is also associated with this.

IFO Business Optimism Index (Germany):

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On the other hand, the single European currency began to grow actively from the very opening of the American trading session, although at the same time, I placed French government securities, the yield on which went down. In particular, the yield on 6-month bonds decreased from -0.587% to -0.589%, while 12-month bills from -0.582% to -0.591%. Only on 3-month bills was an increase in profitability recorded from -0.596% to -0.587%. And yes, this is not a mistake. The yield on them is negative for all. That is, investors will receive less than they invested. And in theory, this situation should scare investors, but the single European currency was growing.

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And against the background of all this, the subsequent behavior of the dollar at the time of placement of already US government debt securities, looks extremely untypical. It's just right. The profitability went down and the dollar became cheaper. But then again, only in relation to the single European currency. So, the yield on 3-month bills decreased from 1.545% to 1.505%, while on 6-month bills from 1.51% to 1.44%. And here is where the behavior of the dollar is completely logical and correct. However, another thing is surprising, because the yield on government loans should go down if the market expects a decrease in the refinancing rate of the Federal Reserve. But the fact is that American macroeconomic statistics clearly indicate that Jerome Powell just right to think about the possibility of raising this refinancing rate. So questions are raised by the dynamics of the yield on government debt securities, since it is clearly moving in the wrong direction. Although this may be due to just growing demand associated with a clear deterioration in the economic situation in Europe, while the US economy is doing quite well.

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The market continues to demonstrate its indifference to European macroeconomic data since early in the morning. Although in Germany, Europe's largest economy, the fourth quarter final GDP data showed that economic growth did not slow down from 0.6% to 0.4%, as preliminary data showed, but to 0.3%. In other words, the German economy is moving toward recession even faster, but the market does not seem to notice it. Just as he did not notice the slowdown in the decline in producer prices in Spain from -1.9% to -0.8%. Although everything is clear here, since the Spanish macroeconomic data are in any case not as important as the German ones.

GDP growth rate (Germany):

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However, today is seriously different from yesterday, as the United States publishes important macroeconomic data. Well, the market reacts extremely sensitive to American statistics. So, the S & P / CaseShiller data should show an acceleration in the growth rate of housing prices from 2.6% to 2.8%. Given the fact that rising house prices is a leading inflation indicator, then inflation will continue to rise. It turns out that American statistics may well be the reason for the resumption of the strengthening of the dollar.

S & P / CaseShiller (United States) Housing Price Index:

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The euro / dollar currency pair which is in the correction phase returned to the area of 1.0850, where the quote slowed down and formed a range of 1.0840 / 1.0870. It is likely to assume that the fluctuation in the given framework will continue in the market, where in case the price is fixed lower than 1.0830, a signal of working off the level of 1.0850 will be received and, as a fact, the downward trend will be restored.

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The pound / dollar currency pair is within the correctional course of the past week, where the quote tends to a maximum of 1.2976. It is likely to assume that the local upward interest will soon change, and the quote will return to the values of 1.2900 ---> 1.2885 again.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:33 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 27, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro once again tried to compete with the resistance of the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0898) on Wednesday, the trading volume was high, it is very likely that investors again accumulated short positions. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary of the growth territory. The degree of probability of a reversal from this boundary will be considered on a smaller scale chart.

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At H4, the oscillator signal line exited down from the wedge and returned to it. In general, this is still a signal for a price reversal. Confirmation of a reversal will be when the price leaves yesterday's low of 1.0855. The immediate goal of the euro 1.0813 is to support the MACD line. Next, we expect the euro at a quote of 1.0745 - at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (daily).

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But the euro is still growing. The growth limit may be the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.0933.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:26 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 28, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro showed an abnormal growth of 120 points on Thursday amid moderate (canadian dollar) or even indistinct (Australian dollar) development in other leading currencies.. The reason for this was the widespread risk aversion and the curtailment of European carry trade transactions. The US stock market (S&P 500) fell 4.42%, in one week the decline blocked the previous four-month growth. The market likelihood (in accordance with futures on federal funds) of the Fed's rate cut in March in one day increased from 44.3% to 97.4%, even for April, another cut is 73.1% compared to 27.5% the day before. At a time when the epidemic of the coronavirus began to subside, a storm came to the markets. On the other hand, this is the best time to blow out market bubbles and remove small players from the market. Major players left the market last year. Euro trading volumes were the highest yesterday in the last 5.5 months. The lion's share did not fall on purchases, but on closing stop losses above 1.09. The euro corrected 50% of the entire decline on December 31-March 20. Now you can turn down. The fact is that if investors really consider the collapse to be the beginning of a new global crisis, whether they want it or not, the world will buy dollars even when rates are lowered, but carry trade deals, according to experience, are closed very quickly.

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The euro reached a low of January 2020 and the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. Growth was stopped by the red indicator line of balance, which from a purely technical point of view indicates that the downward mood will continue. The MACD line is also higher than the price. The Marlin has risen, but shows an intention to turn down.

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The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator in the overbought zone. Taking into account yesterday's volumes, we can expect some price delay in the area of the reached high, investors will need several days to make new decisions. A signal for the resumption of sales will be when the price leaves the under the MACD line, approximately, around 1.0890-1.0900, that is, from the place where there were recent stop losses.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Yvonne » Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:56 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 2, 2020

EUR/USD

Good data on the US came out on Friday, which put pressure on most currencies, but the euro ended the day higher after a bit of confusion. Personal incomes of consumers increased by 0.6% in January, expenses increased by 0.2%, business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region in February amounted to 49.0 points against 42.9 a month earlier. Also, the commodity trade balance improved from -68.7 billion to -65.5 billion in January.

Today the final PMI estimates for February will come out in the eurozone (expectations unchanged), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected to decrease from 50.9 to 50.5, which may extend the euro's growth amid expectations of a Fed rate cut on the 18th. Markets lay a 94.9% probability of a rate cut immediately by 0.50% to 1.25% and another decrease by 0.25% at a meeting on April 29th. Looking ahead, we note that lowering rates will have a short-term effect on the dollar, the development of the crisis will nevertheless return market sentiment to the purchase of safe haven currency, as it was during the 2008 crisis.

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On the daily chart, the price went above both indicator lines - above the red balance line, which shifts the price balance towards growth, and above the MACD line, which indicates a medium-term direction to growth. The immediate goal is the correction level of 76.4% at the price of 1.1130, overcoming the level opens the second goal of 1.1175 - a strong record level (a high on January 16, December 17, etc.).

The daily Marlin oscillator is close to the overbought zone, it has significantly pulled down the growth rate. We are waiting for the euro's next reaction. Labor indicators on Friday will become very important for understanding the Fed's intentions on the rate - good data are unlikely to push the central bank to double the rate cut, and one decrease by 0.25% is already actively included in the price.

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The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart, only the Marlin oscillator forms a kind of consolidation in front of the overbought zone, and a small divergence, which indicates an imminent slowdown in price growth with the likelihood of converting into a short-lived horizontal trend (1-2 days).

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:45 am

Forecast for GBP/USD on March 3, 2020

GBP/USD
The quote of the British pound remained at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% for two days. Investors are waiting for news from the negotiations of the British delegation with European politicians. The current stage of negotiations will end on Thursday. Consolidating the price under yesterday's low opens the target at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2670. The second target is 161.8% at 1.2530. It is also possible to continue trading in the range, then the price can once again be marked at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2844).

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving up, which may be a warning of another local increase before the medium-term decrease (potential, expected). Here, the resistance is the MACD line, which moves to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. The Marlin oscillator by this time will reach the boundary with the growth territory and will turn down from it.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:37 am

Forecast for GBP/USD on March 4, 2020

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the growth of the British pound was stopped at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2843). At the moment, technical indicators do not show any proactive signals of continued growth or a price reversal. The same situation of uncertainty in the political sphere, the results of trade talks between the UK and the EU should become known tomorrow.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator touched the boundary with the growth territory. There may be a downward turn from this line, but there may be continued growth.

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In general, the situation is going down on both scales - the price is lower than the indicator lines, there are no warning reversal patterns. The pound may rise after the price overcomes the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2904), a return to decline is likely after leaving the level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2760. We are waiting for news from Brussels where trade negotiations take place.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:03 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 5, 2020

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD quote continues to stay at the Fibonacci level of 76.4% on the daily scale chart, in the area of Monday's close. Trading volumes were high, indicating closing positions from purchases since February 21. The euro is unfolding.

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The first goal 1.1035 is to support the MACD line on a daily chart. The second target, 1.0990, is an embedded price channel line, overcoming of which, in turn, opens the way to a medium-term decline in the euro. Investors are laying a 90% chance that the ECB will lower the deposit rate from the current -0.50% to -0.60% at its meeting on March 12th.

Image

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

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