Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2024

EUR/USD
The euro completed a small task set before yesterday – it worked out the resistance of the MACD indicator line on the daily timeframe, closing the day with a white candle. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator strengthened its bullish momentum, which shows that the euro is ready to rise ahead of the FOMC meeting. From a technical standpoint, this will look like the price breaking out of the descending corrective wedge. This is our main scenario. The first bullish target is 1.0905, and the second is 1.0966 – the peak of November 21, 2023.



If events develop according to an alternative scenario, the price may attack the lower embedded line of the price channel with a target level of 1.0730.

On the 4-hour chart, the price pierced the price support of 1.0825 and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator turned down from the zero line. The gap from the opening of the week was closed yesterday evening.



Earlier, we mentioned that of all the major central banks, the Federal Reserve would be the first to signal a rate cut. Assuming that the Fed will not lower the rate in March but only in May, even in this case, today is a very convenient time to send the corresponding signal. Recent statements by officials from these central banks illustrate this assumption well: Fed official James Bullard mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in March, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that we still need to wait for employment and wage data.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 1, 2024

GBP/USD
Following the outcome of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the British pound became stable below the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The target level of 1.2745 was tested with the upper shadow. The Marlin oscillator continues its sideways movement. Today, it started the day by trading higher. The main signal that the pound received from the Fed is the Bank of England's commitment to a hawkish stance at today's meeting, following the Fed's example.



Most likely, this stance will be revealed through the voting division among the committee members. As a result, the probability of the pound's growth is quite high. After surpassing 1.2745, the first target is 1.2826. Next, we expect the upper boundary of the price channel to be tested around 1.2876. This is the main scenario.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is returning above the MACD line as a continuation of the sideways trend. The Marlin oscillator provides an even greater sign of growth, which entered the growth territory yesterday. We are waiting for the BoE meeting.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 2, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro, which was losing momentum, received support from the stock market, which gained 1.25% (S&P 500) and lifted the euro by 54 pips. On the daily chart, the price broke out of the descending wedge and is attempting to settle above the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is also ready to rise; soon, it will move into the growth territory.



Today, the market expects the U.S. employment data to show minor weakness. In the non-farm sector for January, 187,000 new jobs are forecasted compared to 216,000 in December, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%. However, the stock market, along with other instruments, often developed a risk-on sentiment against labor data, for instance, on November 3rd, when non-farm payrolls for October were 150,000 against an expectation of 180,000.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has already settled into the uptrend territory – it is currently moving above both indicator lines, and Marlin has been stable in the bullish territory. We expect the euro to rise towards the target levels of 1.0966, 1.1001 (the peak of January 11th), and 1.1043, while keeping a close eye on the stock market.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 5, 2024

EUR/USD
Last Friday, the US employment data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the currency market. US nonfarm payroll employment far exceeded expectations of 157,000, with an increase of 353,000 in January. Not only that, but December's figures were revised upward by 117,000. According to federal funds rates, the market probability of maintaining the current Federal Reserve rate at 5.50% in the March meeting has increased from 62% to 80%, and the likelihood of a rate cut in May rose from 58% to 60%. The yield on 5-year US government bonds rose from 3.82% to 3.98%. The S&P 500 stock index jumped by 1.07%, but the euro lacked the decisiveness to follow suit, dropping by 85 pips. Oil and gold also fell.



The euro still has a chance to turn higher, but it needs to rebound from the support level. The nearest support is the price channel line on the daily chart at 1.0748. Just below it is the level of 1.0730. If the price does not turn from there, the price could aim for 1.0632. There is also support at the lower boundary of the wedge, which has already been tested this morning but appears weak.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Probably a short-term continuation of the downward movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2024

EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro fell by 44 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0730 with the lower shadow of the daily candle. The price surpassed the lower border of the green price channel, and the channel is no longer relevant.



Now, after overcoming the level of 1.0730, which the price has reached, the euro may continue to fall to the next target at 1.0632. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly bent upwards, which may indicate a minor correction from the support it reached before it falls further.



On the 4-hour chart, the price consolidates above the support level. Marlin is discharging before a possible new wave of decline. We are waiting for the price to consolidate below 1.0730 and move towards the designated level of 1.0632 – the low of September 14, 2023, and the low of May 31.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2024

EUR/USD
The market started a corrective move on Tuesday. Even the S&P 500, which lost 0.32% on Monday, rebounded by 0.23% yesterday. We do not expect a strong correction since this week's economic calendar does not include any significant economic data. The euro's correction will look like a consolidation above the level of 1.0730, approaching the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel on the daily timeframe. If the price settles below 1.0730, it will open the target at 1.0632.



The price needs to do a lot to reverse the entire movement, including breaking above the MACD line, i.e., approaching 1.0905. Therefore, in the current situation, we are simply waiting for the sideways movement to end. The price could rise above 1.0905 if the stock market continues to set new historical records. However, this will eventually stop.



On the 4-hour chart, a small convergence has formed. The bullish target is the MACD line around the 1.0790 mark. Staying above the line will make it possible for the price to rise to 1.0825.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/CHF H4 | Bearish Drop



For USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc), there's a potential bearish reversal scenario indicated by the following key levels:

Resistance Levels:

The 1st resistance level at 0.87435 is identified as "An Overlap resistance," suggesting a significant barrier where selling pressure could intensify, potentially leading to a reversal in the price trend.

The 2nd resistance level at 0.88069 is described as "Multi-swing high resistance," indicating another level where sellers might be active, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Support Levels:

The 1st support level at 0.86865 is recognized as "An Overlap support," implying a level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing a floor for the price decline.

The 2nd support level at 0.86399 is noted as "Pullback support," suggesting another area where buyers could enter the market, potentially limiting further downward movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 9, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro attempted a bearish breakthrough but quickly returned to the initial positions, ending the day with a 5-point gain. We're waiting for progress, probably until the 13th, which is when the US inflation data for January will be released.



Technically, the waiting mode is working in a downward vector, as it brings it closer to the upper boundary of the descending price channel. With the Marlin oscillator in negative territory, there is a higher chance that the price could fall from this level. Overcoming the support at 1.0724 will be a crucial condition for such a decline. The nearest target is 1.0632.



On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's downturn occurred from the MACD line. This line stopped the price from returning. Marlin is currently in the positive territory, but this may not last long. For a bullish breakthrough, the price must consolidate with yesterday's high at 1.0789, which is also slightly above the MACD line. The bulls are aiming for 1.0825.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 12, 2024

EUR/USD
After a reversal from the support at 1.0724, the euro continues to rise for the 5th day towards the target level of 1.0825, which is near the upper band of the local descending channel on the daily scale.



The bodies of the observed white candles are small, indicating an apparent corrective nature of this growth. If the price manages to consolidate above the MACD line (1.0876), the bulls will have a basis to support a stronger rise, for instance, into the range of 1.0966-1.1001. The Marlin oscillator is still developing in negative territory, although its rise is fast.



We are also keeping an eye on the S&P 500 stock index, which reached the target level of 5028 on Friday, and there is a risk of a reversal from this level. If it continues to rise, the next target will be the upper boundary of the global hyperchannel in the target range of 5101.50-5120.00, where the risk of a reversal will increase significantly.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 13, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro did not reach its target of 1.0825, hindered by investors' flight from risk in the broader market; the S&P 500 lost 0.09% (although overall, stock markets closed mixed), and the yield on US government bonds edged down slightly.



Perhaps the single currency will not rise further, say, to 1.10. Currently, the euro is falling within a medium-term descending channel, staying below the balance and MACD indicator lines with a declining Marlin oscillator. If the price hits the nearest target of 1.0724, consolidates below it, then the euro will continue to fall to the second target of 1.0632 – to the low of September 14, 2023. We expect the pair to continue its downward movement.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD line but currently feels uncertain there, as the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the growth territory. Perhaps it will do so when the price surpasses yesterday's low of 1.0757.

Today, the US will release figures for its February's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the main agenda of the day, as this may influence the Federal Reserve's attitude toward monetary policy.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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