Instaforex Analysis

Forex broker related topics and discussions

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:43 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 6, 2020

EUR/USD
The expected euro reversal is delayed. Markets are laying the probability of a threefold Fed rate cut by April, that is, from the current of 1.25% to 0.50%. Investors clearly suffered, because on Wednesday the head of the St. Petersburg Federal Reserve Bank of St. James James Bullard spoke and said bluntly that the markets were mistaken, laying even a quarter point rate hike on March 18, since an emergency rate cut on Tuesday was a preventive measure, you need to get at least some information on the impact of coronavirus on the US economy.

Trading volumes sharply fell, but still exceeded the top five-month volumes. This is excessive volumes for yesterday's growth of the euro by 100 points, which means that strategic investors still continued to close positions on the purchase of middle-hand players.

Image

The price stopped at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% - at the top of December 31. The Marlin oscillator began to turn around from overbought zone. Today, US employment data for February will be released. The consensus forecast for unemployment is the previous 3.6%, but there are estimates even lower at 3.5%. Outside the agricultural sector, an increase of 175 thousand new jobs is expected. This news is likely to become a turning point for the entire market.

The first goal 1.1035 is to support the MACD line on a daily chart. The second target, 1.0990, is an embedded price channel line, overcoming of which, in turn, opens the way to a medium-term decline in the euro. Investors are laying a 90% chance that the ECB will lower the deposit rate from the current -0.50% to -0.60% at its meeting on March 12th.

Image

On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, divergence is forming. The purpose of the euro decline is the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (in fact 38.2% of the growth since February 20), the MACD line is striving for this level both on the daily chart and on the four-hour chart.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:37 am

GBP/USD. Trumps of the pound and the dollar's hopeless prospects

EUR/USD
The pound ended the trading week on a major note: paired with the dollar, the pound was able to return to the area of the 30th figure, after falling to around 1.2725 at the end of February. Such dynamics is explained not only by the weakness of the US currency. The buyers of GBP/USD gave a rather positive assessment of the first results of the negotiation process between Brussels and London, although representatives of the parties announced serious disagreements that could not be overcome yet. Nevertheless, the negotiators also voiced encouraging theses - it was on them that the market focused its attention.

In particular, the head of the European delegation Michel Barnier expressed confidence that they will be able to negotiate with the UK, despite the "very, very serious disagreements." He noted that the parties initially had completely different positions on key issues, so these differences in views were not a surprise to anyone. Nevertheless, he was optimistic about the prospects for negotiations.

Image

The market seized on this phrase, although it is actually unclear how the parties plan to find a common denominator. Barnier named four points on which there are serious differences. According to him, if no compromise is reached on these issues, an agreement is unlikely to be signed.

First, it is about maintaining European standards that would guarantee equal trading opportunities. At the moment, London does not want to oblige itself to comply with these standards, and most importantly, it is opposed to the creation of appropriate mechanisms that could monitor the situation and record "unjustified commercial advantages".

Secondly, the British refuse to recognize not only the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, but also the European Convention on Human Rights and the rules for the exchange of data. As Barnier noted, if the parties do not come to an understanding on this item, then further cooperation in this area will be "carried out in accordance with the norms of world law". Here you can also mention the contradictions in the field of law enforcement: we are talking about coordinated actions to combat terrorism, financial crime, organized crime and so on.

Another contradiction is more fundamental. We are talking about the legal basis for future relationships. Britain plans to enter into several agreements – in every area where this is necessary. Brussels insists on signing a single, comprehensive agreement. In addition, the UK does not want to agree to common terms for both sides in the deal.

And the last, fourth, disagreement is about fishing. London insists that fishing matters be discussed on a regular basis, that is, annually. On the contrary, Europeans want to include fishing in the structure of the general economic agreement. According to Barnier, the British position on the issue of fishing is "unacceptable".

As you can see, the positions of the parties are still at different poles, and the first round of negotiations was inconclusive. But the market nevertheless "trusted" Barnier's optimism, which expressed confidence that Brussels and London would still come to a common opinion on all key issues.

It is worth noting that last week, figuratively speaking, Brexit "did not prevent" the GBP/USD from growing, while the main driving force of the upward movement was the dollar, which swooped down on all fronts. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York significantly lowered its forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year. While the previous estimate was at 2.15%, expectations have now dropped to 1.7%. Comments from Donald Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, also put pressure on greenback. According to him, certain sectors of the US economy will feel the "strong negative impact" of the epidemic, but it is "too early" to make decisions about supporting the economy with fiscal measures. At the same time, Trump himself is demanding that the Fed should hold another round of rate cuts.

In this case, we can talk about a certain de-correlation. For example, if the head of the Bank of England (Andrew Bailey) insists on applying fiscal responses, the White House is trying to offset the impending threat with monetary policy. And the Fed seems to agree with this scenario. At least, the latest comments from the Fed representatives (Bullard, Kaplan) indicate a willingness to further soften monetary policy. While representatives of the BoE and the ECB are increasingly reminded that they are limited in their actions – in particular, Bailey allowed a rate cut to 0.1%, but at the same time excluded the option of reducing to a negative area.

Image

Thus, the pound is still in a winning position relative to the US currency. According to general market expectations, the Fed will lower the rate by another 25 basis points at the March meeting, and later, by another 25 basis points by the beginning of summer. In turn, the BoE can maintain a wait-and-see attitude on March 26, saving an arsenal of available actions for the future. Such a de-correlation provides support for GBP/USD, especially against the background of quite calm rhetoric of the Brexit negotiators. If this fundamental background for the dollar and the pound persists next week, the pair can test the next resistance level, which is located at 1.3105 - this is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:36 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 10, 2020

EUR/USD
In the last three weeks of growth, the euro corrected 38.2% of the fall from February 2018 to February 2020. Today, in the Asian session, the euro's fall is more than 70 points, which shows the clear intention of the price to close the gap on Monday. Next, we are waiting for the testing of the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.1200, which coincides with the top on December 13 (marked with a tick).

Image

Fixing the price below this level will direct the price to the support of the MACD line (1.1085). Fixing the price below it will confirm the market's intention to continue selling euros.

Image

As seen on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down sharply. This is a sign of the market's intention to move down. The support for the MACD line at 1.1200 coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the higher-scale chart. Accordingly, the level is strong and requires increased care. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:37 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 10, 2020

EUR/USD
In the last three weeks of growth, the euro corrected 38.2% of the fall from February 2018 to February 2020. Today, in the Asian session, the euro's fall is more than 70 points, which shows the clear intention of the price to close the gap on Monday. Next, we are waiting for the testing of the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.1200, which coincides with the top on December 13 (marked with a tick).

Image

Fixing the price below this level will direct the price to the support of the MACD line (1.1085). Fixing the price below it will confirm the market's intention to continue selling euros.

Image

As seen on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down sharply. This is a sign of the market's intention to move down. The support for the MACD line at 1.1200 coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the higher-scale chart. Accordingly, the level is strong and requires increased care. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:02 am

How is coronavirus spreading around the planet? The US, Italy, Spain, China and Iran are at high risk

Image

The Chinese pneumonia virus COVID-2019 has "captured" more than 100 countries around the world. More than 105,000 people are infected, mostly in China. The largest number of infected and deaths is in the "hotbed" of infection - China. Apart from China, Italy has been the most affected at the moment, with more than 6,000 cases of infection. More than 200 people were killed. The entire country is under quarantine. Schools and cinemas have been closed, all sporting events have been canceled, and any events where a large number of people may gather are prohibited. Some regions with the highest number of cases are quarantined. Citizens are not allowed to leave their homes without good reason. According to the current plan, such measures have been taken until April 3. No one knows what will happen after April 3. Everything will depend on whether it is possible to stop the spread of infection in the country. The Italian authorities decided to involve an additional 20,000 doctors and nurses in the fight against the virus. The main thing now is to stop the infection. It is noted that about 600 people are in intensive care, but about 600 have fully recovered. The average age of those who died from the virus is 81 years. It follows that first of all deaths are recorded in the elderly. People with weak, due to age-related reasons, immunity and health. 80% of people who died from the virus had other diseases. Thus, on the example of Italy, we can conclude that the virus is not fatal, but can lead to a fatal outcome if the patient has poor health. Thus, the elderly and people with weak immune systems are primarily at risk.

About 3000 cases of infection have been recorded in the UK, five have died. All of them were elderly people with poor health. All who contacted the dead are isolated, including medical staff. The United States also recorded several hundred cases of the disease (about 700). Most are in the New York State, where a state of emergency has already been declared. Several people died. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo believes mass quarantine is the best way to slow the spread of infection. Washington state has also been one of the most infected. The state recorded about 70 cases of the disease. As in many other countries, those who die from the virus are elderly people. In addition, a large number of patients were recorded in Iran - about 6,000. 145 people died. At the same time, firstly, representatives of the medical sphere believe that the real numbers can be much higher, and secondly, two representatives of the Parliament have already died from the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, panic is brewing in countries with the highest incidence of the disease. Thank God that so far this word only refers to the desire of people to stock up on all necessary products and not to leave the house without unnecessary need. Therefore, a shortage of certain foods may occur. For example, in the UK, Secretary of Health Matt Hancock urged people not to buy more than they needed, assuring that there was enough food for everyone. The minister also assured that he works with supermarkets in the direction of delivering food and necessary goods to the home in case people have to isolate themselves. However, representatives of UK supermarkets argue that the demand for the most necessary food products is "going wild" and cast doubt on the fact that the authorities will be able to keep the situation under control and provide all citizens with food and basic necessities. One of the directors of large supermarket chains even stated that there were no contacts with the government.

Quite unexpectedly, Spain took the lead in the number of cases, where according to the latest data, the number of infected exceeded 1200. According to the Minister of Health of Spain, Salvador Illa, the situation with coronavirus in the country has significantly worsened in recent days. Most infections have been reported in Madrid. Most of the cases are elderly people in nursing homes and employees of these homes. Two weeks quarantine has also been announced in Madrid with the closure of all schools, universities and kindergartens.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am

Forecast for GBP/USD on March 12, 2020

GBP/USD
The Bank of England lowered its key rate from 0.75% to 0.25% on Wednesday. The pound's initial reaction was to fall by 100 points, but then there was an increase of 150 points, and the day was closed with a loss of 65 points. Volatility in the markets has returned, but the overall trend for strengthening the dollar remains, because the situation in the British economy is significantly deteriorating; according to the latest data, GDP for January showed 0.0%, the trade balance deteriorated from -1.4 billion pounds to -3.7 billion, industrial production decreased by 0.1%, production in the construction sector showed -0.8% in January.

Image

On the daily scale chart, the surge in growth was stopped by the balance line (red indicator line), meaning that volatility remained within the downward trend. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fixed in the decreasing trend zone. Now the target of the pound is the 110.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2647. Overcoming the level opens the second target for the reaction level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2538.

Image

On the H4 chart, the price is fixed under the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin is declining and does not show signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the British pound to fall to the designated goals.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:04 pm

EURUSD reaches key Fibonacci level and bounces

EURUSD was expected to pull back towards the key Fibonacci levels we have mentioned in our previous analysis. EURUSD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has bounced off of it.

Image

EURUSD has pulled back as a back test of the broken wedge pattern. Price has so far reached the 61.8% level and is bouncing. As we explained in our last Ichimoku cloud analysis, we had a weak sell signal and the first target was the cloud support at 1.1130. Price surpassed our target and reached 1.1060.

Image

So far the back test is successful and supportive of the bullish continuation of the break out. If price pushes back inside the wedge pattern and stays below, then this would be a very bearish sign.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:58 am

Trader's diary for March 18, 2020, Oil fell amid coronavirus outbreak

Image

Oil, as can be seen on the chart, fell to $ 26 for two main reasons, first, OPEC Price War in Russia. Second, the global crisis due to coronavirus which leads to a drop in oil demand.

Image

EURUSD:
The euro is trying to start a new wave of decline against the dollar.

Euro is in a fundamentally bad condition as Europe has become the center of the coronavirus pandemic, and the strongest economies namely Italy, Germany and France are at their most vulnerable state. Due to this, the economy will suffer serious losses.

From an economic point of view, the euro can fall right down to parity with the dollar.

You can keep sales from 1.1053.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:58 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 19, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, trading in the euro took place in a wide range of about 250 points, this morning the price tested the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart and returned to the red indicator line balance, and opening day occurred under this line, which speaks of the intention of the price to decline further, the market came under the control of the bears. The goal of the decline is the low line of the price channel around 1.0640.

Image

On the four-hour chart, yesterday's convergence on the Marlin oscillator turned out to be broken, although its effect was reflected in more than 80-point growth in the euro. Currently, Marlin is developing in its own downward channel, the lower boundary of which is very, very low.

Image

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:01 am

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 20, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro collapsed by 250 points on Thursday, pausing on the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly turned upwards, which may develop into a short-term price correction, as an option, to the February 20 low at the price of 1.0778. The departure of the quote under the price channel line (1.0644) opens the target at 1.0493 - the February 2017 low. Price taking above 1.0778 will extend the correction to 1.0879 - to the October 1, 2019 low.

Image

The Marlin oscillator also reverses upwards on the four-hour chart, remaining within its own descending channel. We are waiting for the correction to be completed as well as for the euro to fall.

Image

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
Posts: 5198
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:25 am

PreviousNext

Return to Forex Brokers