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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for December 23, 2025 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4397.92-4447.92, TP1-4497.92, TP2-4599.92.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 4190.00–4225.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 4200.00-4220.00 and 4315.00-4335.00. Currently, investment transactions are being made on XAUUSD above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favorable purchase prices from the point of view of margin collateral is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 23.12.2025.

• Quote for the upper limit of zone 1/4 – 4447.92.

• Quote for the upper limit of zone 1/2 – 4397.92.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 23.12.2025 – 4497.92.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of SNKZ-4599.92. XAUUSD: BUY 4397.92-4447.92, TP1-4497.92, TP2-4599.92.



• Trading recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 4397.92–4447.92, Take Profit 1–4497.92, Take Profit 2–4599.92.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 24, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

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On 24 December 2025, EUR/USD is holding near 1.1800, while the US dollar remains under pressure: the market is pricing in continued Fed rate cuts in 2026, even after strong US GDP growth in the third quarter. A weaker tone in consumer surveys adds to the picture, and the pre-holiday week with reduced liquidity increases the pair’s sensitivity to any headlines.

On the euro side, support comes from the European Central Bank’s steadier stance after the 18 December decision to keep rates unchanged and revise growth and inflation projections higher. This reduces the likelihood of near-term easing in the euro area and helps maintain interest in European assets against the backdrop of the euro’s notable strengthening through 2025.

Today’s focus is US initial jobless claims and any signals about the 2026 rate path. If expectations of easing in the US persist and there are no new reasons for rate cuts in the euro area, the balance remains in favour of the euro, so the base scenario is to buy the pair.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1800, SL 1.1770, TP 1.1890

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 26, 2025 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:
​
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GBP/USD is trading around 1.3515, supported by broad US dollar weakness in a thin market after the Christmas holidays. Market participants continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy: expectations of lower rates in 2026 and uncertainty around the Fed’s next steps keep interest in the dollar subdued.

Fundamentally, the pound looks resilient after the Bank of England’s latest decision to cut the rate to 3.75% on a very close vote. This configuration suggests that further easing will be limited and data-dependent, which supports the yield appeal of UK assets. The market was also helped by updated economic estimates: revised third-quarter growth and improved external income reduced fears of a sharp slowdown.

In the near term, the key factor remains the balance between the pace of inflation cooling in the UK and rate expectations in the US. As long as the market believes a rate cut is more likely in the US than in the UK, the pair retains upside potential. In this environment, preference is for buying the pound against the dollar from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3515, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3595

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 29, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - Change in the volume of pending home sales transactions

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY is trading around 156.35, but the yen looks more confident after the Bank of Japan’s December rate hike and discussions within the regulator about the need to continue gradual tightening. An additional cap on the pair’s upside comes from statements by Japan’s Ministry of Finance about its readiness to respond to excessive exchange-rate swings, which makes market participants more cautious.

On the US side, the key driver remains expectations for the Fed rate: after the December decision, investors are trying to assess how quickly the regulator is ready to ease conditions in 2026. Against this backdrop, the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting become the main event over the next 24 hours, as they can clarify the balance of arguments on inflation and the labor market and, accordingly, the outlook for yields.

At year-end, thin markets increase the risk of sharp spikes, especially in yen pairs, where the possibility of official intervention is taken seriously. If interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency persists and expectations of further normalization by the Bank of Japan remain, the fundamental bias shifts toward a lower USD/JPY. It is important to account for news-driven volatility and set position protection levels in advance.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.35, SL 156.55, TP 155.55

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 02 January 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4475.00, SL 4465.00, TP 4550.00

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Gold starts the week near $4,470 per ounce: demand is supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2026 and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Investors are also watching the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting and fresh U.S. data.

If the minutes confirm the regulator’s readiness to ease policy as inflation slows, interest in safe-haven assets may strengthen. A key risk for prices is a sharp rise in government bond yields and a stronger dollar on upbeat data.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4475.00, SL 4465.00, TP 4550.00



#SP500: BUY 6930, SL 6910, TP 7080



The S&P 500 ends the year near record levels around 6,930 points, while the new week is expected to be quiet due to the holidays. The focus is on the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting and a set of U.S. housing and business-activity indicators.

A positive driver for the market is expectations of cheaper borrowing and solid corporate earnings forecasts for 2026. A restraining factor is the risk that the minutes signal Fed caution and trigger a reassessment of rate expectations.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6930, SL 6910, TP 7080



#BRENT: BUY 61.00, SL 60.70, TP 63.70



Brent crude is holding near $61 per barrel: the market is reacting to news around talks on Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, which increase the risk of supply disruptions. Prices are also supported by a seasonal pickup in demand at year-end.

At the same time, concerns about oversupply in 2026 remain, limiting the upside. This week, attention will be on U.S. oil inventory data and statements from major producers about production plans.

Trading recommendation: BUY 61.00, SL 60.70, TP 63.70

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BTCUSD: BUY 90350, SL 89500, TP 100000.

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The price is being squeezed into a narrow range. Every attempt to rise meets strong resistance, causing the price to roll back to the starting point of the move. It is likely that the year will end at these current price levels.

At the same time, the situation looks attractive for buying. This is due to the fact that the development of the bearish impulse likely ended earlier, with wave (v) being truncated. This is a sign of buyer strength. However, if the price does not rise in the near future, we may see a decline, in which case wave (v) would form as a full-fledged wave.

In this situation, opening long positions is advisable upon a breakout and consolidation above 90300.

Investment idea: BUY 90350, SL 89500, TP 100000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for December 31, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD is ending the year around 1.1740–1.1750 amid thin holiday trading. The euro is holding firm after a strong 2025, but at current levels profit-taking and year-end portfolio rebalancing are becoming more noticeable, which supports short-term demand for the US dollar.

The key driver today is US rate expectations. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed meaningful differences among policymakers after the rate cut to the 3.50–3.75% range, while updated projections point to a more cautious pace of further moves in 2026. This setup limits downside pressure on the dollar and makes the pair more sensitive to any signals on inflation and the labour market.

On the euro area side, the pair faces headwinds from a more restrained monetary-policy path: the ECB kept key rates unchanged on 18 December, and markets interpret this as a shift toward a pause as inflation gradually normalises. In low-liquidity conditions, even small changes in expectations for the rate differential can trigger a pullback in EUR/USD from recent levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1740, SL 1.1770, TP 1.1650

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 2, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI Index

16:45 EET. USD - Manufacturing Business Activity Index

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is trading around 1.3480, keeping part of the gains after a strong 2025 for the pound and a weaker dollar. With liquidity still thin in the first business days of the year, headlines can have an outsized impact, so short-term swings may be sharper than usual even with a light macro calendar.

The main driver for the dollar remains expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory in 2026 and the broader debate around future central-bank guidance. If incoming U.S. data on the labor market and inflation confirms the economy’s resilience, traders may scale back bets on rapid rate cuts, supporting the dollar and triggering a corrective move lower in GBP/USD.

For the pound, risks are linked to the Bank of England having already moved into rate cuts while keeping a cautious stance, balancing inflation against weak growth. The market also watches the state of public finances and business activity in the UK: weaker confidence typically lifts demand for the dollar as a reserve currency. Under these conditions, a decline from current levels looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3390

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 5, 2025 USDJPY​

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY on Monday, January 5, is trading near 157.0–157.3. The dollar is supported at the start of the first full week of 2026 amid expectations for a busy US data calendar. With global risk demand relatively steady, interest remains in strategies where the yen is used as a funding currency, which weakens it.

The spotlight is on US manufacturing data and positioning ahead of the employment report later in the week. If indicators confirm economic resilience, it becomes more difficult for the market to expect rapid Fed rate cuts, which generally supports the dollar. Additional uncertainty comes from anticipation of the decision on the next Fed Chair, which can quickly shift perceptions of future policy.

On the Japanese side, the yen is supported by discussions about a gradual tightening of monetary policy in 2026, but this process is typically stretched over time. In addition, Japanese authorities periodically signal readiness to respond to excessive yen weakness, so sharp moves may come with higher volatility. For now, however, yield differentials and external demand for the dollar keep the risk skewed toward USD/JPY upside.

Trading recommendation: BUY 157.25, SL 156.95, TP 158.15

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 09 January 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00​

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Gold starts the week near 4415.50 per ounce: thin trading at the beginning of the year has amplified reactions to news from Venezuela and broader geopolitical tension, lifting demand for safe-haven assets. Support also comes from expectations of lower US interest rates in 2026 and continued buying by central banks.

For the week of January 5–9, the focus is on US data on business activity and the labor market, with the key event being Friday’s jobs report. Weaker figures could strengthen interest in gold, while strong numbers may boost the dollar and cool the market temporarily.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4415.50, SL 4380.00, TP 4522.00



#SP500: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098​



The #SP500 is holding around 6858 at the start of the first full week of 2026: investors are weighing geopolitics and oil, but the main guide remains expectations for US interest rates. After a strong finish to 2025, the market enters the week with a cautious tone.

The week of January 5–9 is packed with US statistics, with Friday’s employment report as the highlight. Moderate data would support equities through hopes of lower borrowing costs, while a surprise rise in inflation expectations and yields could increase pressure on the stock market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6858, SL 6778, TP 7098


#BRENT: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40​




#BRENT is trading near 60.43 per barrel: news around Venezuela has added sharp swings, but the market sees no major supply disruptions for now. OPEC+ is keeping current output settings, and talk of potential supply growth ahead is capping prices.

For the week of January 5–9, the spotlight is on demand signals via US statistics and updates from China, as well as the regular US inventory figures. If demand stays soft and the dollar strengthens, oil risks sliding; however, tighter sanctions or logistical disruptions could quickly restore support.

Trading recommendation: SELL 60.43, SL 62.10, TP 55.40


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