Weekly Outlook for September 22, 2025 (XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT)XAUUSD: BUY 3693.00, SL 3663.00, TP 3783.00Exclusive for our readers – a 202% bonus on deposits of $202 or more! Give the promo code
INDEX202 to customer support and start trading with TRIPLED capital. Full promo details are available via the
link.
Gold enters the new week holding near record highs on a combination of factors: the confirmed 25 bp Fed rate cut, expectations of two additional easing steps by year-end, and steady demand from central banks. As of Monday morning, spot prices hover around $3,691 per ounce, while last week’s peak was near $3,707. This backdrop sustains a “protection” premium amid looser financial conditions and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
The key macro input in the coming days will be the US PCE release and a series of Fed speakers. If data confirm waning inflation pressure and a soft policy path, US real yields should stay subdued and the dollar within recent ranges—conditions that typically support gold. At the same time, ongoing official purchases and institutional inflows provide a fundamental demand “cushion.”
Strategy risks are primarily tied to unexpectedly strict Fed signals or an acceleration in inflation that could lift real rates and temporarily strengthen the dollar. Another risk is a swift drop in the geopolitical premium embedded in defensive assets.
The base case is to maintain long exposure from 3,691.50, counting on continued policy easing and stable official demand. A stop at 3,661.50 and a target at 3,781.50 keep the risk/reward at no worse than 1:3.
Trade recommendation: BUY 3693.00, SL 3663.00, TP 3783.00#SP500: BUY 6670.0, SL 6600.0, TP 6880.0
US equities finished last week near record highs following the first rate cut since December and indications of potential further moves by the Fed before year-end. As a result, major houses are revising index targets higher, betting on continued growth under easier financial conditions and resilient corporate earnings trends. The latest S&P 500 close was around 6,664 points, with the fundamental backdrop underpinned by expectations of lower yields.
This week’s main drivers remain the PCE data and Fed rhetoric. Cheaper funding supports multiples in rate-sensitive segments and the investment cycle in digitalization and AI. Additional positives include a steadier dollar and a reduced risk premium in yields—together, these factors bolster demand for broad-market stocks, even as the room for margin expansion in some industries is constrained by input costs and wages.
Key risks include US political agenda items (budget negotiations and a potential government shutdown), an unexpectedly firm PCE print, and a sharp rebound in yields that could cool risk appetite. The base case is to hold/add longs from 6,665.0, looking for confirmation of a gentle policy path and upward target revisions. A stop at 6,595.0 and a target at 6,875.0 imply a roughly 1:3 risk/reward.
Trade recommendation: BUY 6670.0, SL 6600.0, TP 6880.0#BRENT: SELL 66.25, SL 67.45, TP 62.65
The oil market starts the week with a downward-tilted balance: supply remains ample, OPEC+ discipline has softened, and signs of sluggish demand in the US and Asia periodically resurface in inventory prints and seasonally lower refinery runs. Brent trades near $67 per barrel—gains in Asian hours are limited as geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East are offset by expectations of oversupply and incremental exports from several producers.
Fed easing by itself has yet to translate into a durable fuel-demand rebound: soft indicators in US labor and construction encourage caution, while recent reports and commentary point to risks of additional non-OPEC+ output growth. Meanwhile, the structure of US distillate stocks and rising commercial inventories in China exert a cap on prices.
Near-term risks to the short case include a sharp geopolitical escalation threatening supply or an unexpected production cut within OPEC+. The base case is to sell Brent from 67.00, leaning on the “weak demand + high supply” balance that limits upside even during temporary news-driven spikes. A stop at 68.20 and a target at 63.40 preserve a 1:3 risk/reward.
Trade recommendation: SELL 66.25, SL 67.45, TP 62.65Deposit funds into your account and receive
up to 15% in your balance on your first deposit. The additional funds will be used for trading, increasing trading volumes and helping to withstand drawdowns.
You can find more analytical information on our website
