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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 18, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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By the start of the European session on August 18, GBP/USD is holding around the mid-1.35s, as confirmed by price feeds and market roundups near the current date. Private fundamental notes for Monday feature a bearish bias, favoring sell setups from 1.35–1.36, which aligns with fading upside momentum and profit-taking on long positions.

Fundamentally, pressure on the pound stems from recent signals by the Bank of England and real-sector data. Several reviews note that the latest BoE decision was accompanied by hawkish communication; however, cooling economic activity and a weak July GDP print (m/m negative) limit room for further tightening and raise the risk of a policy path reassessment into the fall. Against this backdrop, near-term rate expectations are tilting away from the GBP, while a rise in UST yields ahead of US releases supports the dollar in a moderate risk-off mode.

Balance-of-payments factors also weigh on the pound’s sustained upside: a widening UK current account deficit in Q2 in some estimates increases the currency’s sensitivity to outflows during periods of softer risk appetite. In parallel, weekly consensus forecasts cite a probability of testing lower levels as the correction unfolds from the 1.36+ resistances, with the scenario invalidated on a firm break above recent highs. Overall, as of 18.08, we prefer selling from 1.3550 with a tight risk.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3550, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3445

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 19.08.2025 BTCUSD
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BTCUSD: SELL 114300, SL 115500, TP 107000

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After the mixed success of updating the historical maximum, there was a sharp decline. This type of development is often a signal of a trend change. Perhaps the decline that occurred is just the tip of the iceberg. All the most interesting things are yet to come.

The upward impulse is complete, and the downward movement is still insignificant, in order to give any assessment of this beginning decline. Perhaps we are in for a deep rollback movement, or the price will get stuck in a certain price range. In any case, there is still good potential for a decline and for making sell transactions. Below the minimum of wave 4, the price is likely to fall, and this is a pretty good movement on which you can try to make money.

Investment idea: SELL 114300, SL 115500, TP 107000.
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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:


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The Japanese yen (JPY) recovered from a slight decline during the Asian session caused by mixed domestic data and on Wednesday showed positive dynamics for the second day in a row against the strengthening US dollar (USD). A government report showed that core orders for machinery and equipment in Japan unexpectedly rose in June. However, this was offset by a decline in Japanese exports in July for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the outlook for the export-dependent economy. This added to uncertainty about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and triggered some intraday selling of the Japanese yen.

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On the other hand, the US dollar is attracting some follow-up buying for the third day in a row amid a decline in the likelihood of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is proving to be another factor providing some support for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, traders still consider it more likely that the Fed will resume its cycle of rate cuts in September. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to stick to its policy normalization course and raise interest rates before the end of the year. This, in turn, could limit the US dollar's gains and help contain deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen ahead of the FOMC minutes release.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 148.00, TP 146.20

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 21 August 2025 XAUUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET — Initial Jobless Claims

XAUUSD: SELL 3348.02-3385.52, TP1-3310.52, TP2-3191.22.

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• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 3330.00–3350.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty. XAUUSD: SELL 3348.02-3385.52, TP1-3310.52, TP2-3191.22.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 3358.00–3365.00 and 3337.00–3345.00. Currently, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range for XAUUSD, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

• The area of favorable prices for sale from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 20.08.2025.

• Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4–3348.02.

• Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2–3385.52.

• Intraday targets: update of lows from 20.08.2025–3310.52.

• Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of SNKZ-3191.22. XAUUSD: SELL 3348.02-3385.52, TP1-3310.52, TP2-3191.22.



• Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 3348.02-3385.52, Take Profit 1–3310.52, Take Profit 2–3191.22.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Rally Japanese style: #NIKKEI breaks records

On August 18, 2025, #NIKKEI hit a new all-time high (43,929). The main driver of growth was the weakening of the yen, which instantly improved export expectations and pushed up automakers: Toyota and Honda were among the leaders. plus positive corporate outlooks and an influx of foreign money amid global expectations of interest rate cuts. Banks and some chip stocks pulled in the opposite direction that day, but the weight of the auto sector and consumer leaders was enough to make the session a “record-breaking” one.

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#NIKKEI on the rise: 5 keys to growth in 2025:

1. Yen exchange rate ↔ exports. A weak/volatile yen supports the margins and multipliers of exporters (automotive, industrial electronics), so any periods of currency weakness remain a catalyst for the index.

2. Soft global “rate” background. The market is pricing in a high probability of an Fed rate cut; the cheaper dollar and general risk appetite are fueling flows into Japanese stocks, especially beneficiaries of external demand.

3. Corporate reforms and buybacks. Strengthened corporate governance practices, stock market pressure to increase ROE/PB, and growth in share buyback programs remain long-term supports for the rally.

4. Industrial cycle: automotive and “new electronics.” Models with high export leverage (automotive, EV/ADAS components, semiconductor equipment) are benefiting from global fleet renewal and growth in technology CAPEX, which is maintaining the profitability of Nikkei's “core” weights. (Inference based on current trends and index structure; confirmed by the composition of session leaders.)

5. Domestic demand and earnings. Moderate wage growth and improved corporate earnings forecasts for the second half of the year are boosting the resilience of domestic demand — another plus for estimates.

The current surge is a classic mix of a weak yen + strong exporters + soft global rates. If corporate reforms and buybacks continue to work and external demand does not “collapse,” the #NIKKEI has a chance to stay close to record levels. FreshForex analysts remind us of the possible risks — a sharp reversal of the yen, delays in trade agreements, and possible tightening by the Bank of Japan — but the underlying backdrop is still playing in favor of the bulls.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 22, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD starts Friday under pressure amid caution ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. The market-implied probability of a September Fed rate cut has eased compared with the start of the week, supporting the dollar and cooling risk appetite. As a result, investors prefer defensive positioning while awaiting fresh guidance from the Fed and upcoming labor market and inflation prints. On balance, near-term fundamentals still favor the dollar.

The euro’s domestic backdrop is not offering stable support either: August business activity and sentiment data have been mixed, while markets are watching how the ECB will proceed after its summer easing. In the absence of convincing signs of faster euro-area growth and with yield differentials still favoring the U.S., the euro has fewer reasons to strengthen ahead of U.S. releases.

Additional volatility stems from ongoing U.S.–EU trade and industrial policy discussions, where headlines shift quickly. Until there is concrete progress on tariffs or joint support measures for industry, investors usually avoid aggressive long euro exposure. Taken together, these fundamental factors create a tactical advantage for the dollar over the euro in today’s session.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1590, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1530

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 25, 2025 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Primary Home Sales

GBPUSD:

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Sterling’s fundamental support stems from a softer dollar on rising expectations of a Fed cut and a cautiously hawkish Bank of England. UK disinflation over the summer has been slow, the labor market remains tight, and wage growth is resilient. This keeps the BoE signaling that the room for deep rate cuts is limited, which is positive for GBP via the yield differential channel.

An additional tailwind for the pound is the stabilization in consumer activity in both the U.S. and UK alongside dollar softness. Falling U.S. yields after dovish Fed signals make sterling more attractive versus the USD, while the risk premium around the UK economy remains manageable. Communications from some BoE members about a gradual approach to further decisions reduce the likelihood of aggressive easing and support the currency.

Over the next sessions, markets will reassess rate trajectories: any confirmation of a softer Fed path alongside a neutral/cautious BoE stance increases the odds of further GBPUSD strength. Upside UK inflation or growth disappointments are risks to this view, but today the fundamental balance remains in sterling’s favor.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3505, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3575

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 26 August 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD: BUY 1.16282–1.16862, TP1-1.17442, TP2-1.19317.

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• Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range of 1.16250–1.16680. At the moment, investment operations are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes in the medium-term trend is located in the range of 1.17100–1.17250. Currently, investment operations are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

• The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 22.08.2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 1.16862.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 1.16282.

• Intraday targets: updating the highs from 22.08.2025-1.17442.

• Medium-term targets: testing the lower limit of ZNKZ–1.19317.



• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 1.16282-1.16862, Take Profit 1-1.17442, Take Profit 2-1.19317.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#FTSE100 hits all-time high — what’s next, higher still?

On August 22, 2025, #FTSE100 closed at an all-time high of 9355.6 points. The main driver of growth was a surge of foreign capital, especially from U.S. investors seeking undervalued assets and boosting demand for UK equities. Defense and commodity companies led the rally, adding optimism amid strong corporate earnings and high dividends. Some bank stocks corrected lower, but the weight of industrial and export-oriented leaders was enough to push the index to record territory.

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Why the FTSE 100 is setting new records: 5 growth factors:

1. Strong UK macroeconomic indicators: Steady GDP growth and a narrowing trade deficit reinforce the foundation for further #FTSE100 gains.
2. Inflow of foreign investments: Massive capital inflows from the U.S. and other countries have shifted focus and funds into UK equities, strongly supporting the index.
3. Outperformers among exporters and defensive sectors: Growth in defense, mining, and financial companies provided fundamental support to the index’s upward momentum.
4. Dividend appeal and low valuations: #FTSE100 offers high dividends and relatively low P/E ratios, making it attractive for investors seeking both yield and value safety.
5. Global diversification and resilience to local risks: The multinational structure of companies and dollar-based revenues shield the index from domestic economic and currency weaknesses, ensuring long-term stability.

The current #FTSE100 rally is the result of a powerful mix: foreign capital inflows, strength in defense and commodity sectors, and appealing dividends against a backdrop of moderate global rate policy. FreshForex analysts note that if investment flows persist and corporate leaders continue to deliver strong earnings and buybacks, the index may remain near record highs.

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Profit from the rally!

[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 27, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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Dollar/yen remains sensitive to U.S. rate repricing: political uncertainty around the Fed and a pullback in short-term U.S. yields limit the pair’s upside. Against this backdrop, periodic demand for safe-haven assets supports the yen, while a narrowing U.S.–Japan yield differential caps the dollar.

An additional fundamental factor is the vigilant stance of Japan’s Ministry of Finance toward FX market volatility. Verbal signals of “heightened vigilance” traditionally restrain attempts at rapid JPY weakening and reduce the odds of a sustained upside break absent confirmation from U.S. rates.

Risks to the short scenario include stronger-than-expected U.S. data, rising real yields, and clear market doubts about the prospects for Fed easing. Otherwise, the fundamental backdrop still suggests USDJPY is inclined to correct lower from the 147–148 area.

Trading recommendation: SELL 147.85, SL 148.50, TP 146.50

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