LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: oversupply as main factor

Current trend

The price of Brent crude oil has been declining from month highs at $54 per barrel for three weeks already, being pushed down by the excess of supply over demand.
Crude Oil Stocks change for the last week of October is due on Wednesday in the US. The previous report indicated a growth to 8.028 million barrels, which was more than 4 million barrels above the forecast.
Given the global economic slowdown and growing volumes of oil production and export, the price of oil tends to remain under pressure in the medium term.

Support and resistance

The price returned to September lows at the level of 47.00. This level is also the lower border of the range 54.00-47.00, within which the price has mainly been trading during last three months.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and 4-hour charts recommend short positions.
If tomorrow statistics indicate a decline in US crude oil stocks, an upward correction may start, but the price is unlikely to overcome the levels of 49.00 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 49.70 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 47.00, 45.25, 42.50.
Resistance levels: 49.00, 49.70, 50.00, 50.50, 51.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with targets at 46.60, 46.00, 45.25 and stop-loss at 47.60.
Pending Buy Stop orders can be placed at the level of 47.80 with targets at 48.20, 49.00, 49.40, 50.00, 51.00, 51.50, 52.00 and stop-loss at 47.40.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: almost zero inflation

Current trend

During the Asian session on Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair was under pressure from weaker-than-expected inflation figures, released in Australia.
Falling commodity prices, a decline in exports to China reduce Australia’s export earnings, thus, adding pressure on the county’s budget.
If the Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged today, the RBA, in its turn, may face the necessity to lower its interest rates at the forthcoming meeting. Lower exchange rate of the national currency would allow the Regulator to support the economy, accelerate the inflation and draw up the budget.

Support and resistance

The AUD/USD pair has declined back to the closing levels of August. On the weekly chart, the price is trading within a downward channel with the lower border below the level of 0.6800.
The breakdown of the lower border 0.7070 of an upward channel on the daily chart may lead to a decline towards year lows at the level of 0.6900.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions. On the weekly chart, the indicators are starting giving sell signals as well.
The pair may grow to the levels of 0.7380 (October highs), 0.7430 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7500 (23.6% Fibonacci) only after the consolidation above 0.7210 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7070, 0.6960, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7380, 0.7400, 0.7430.

Trading tips

Place pending Sell Stop orders at the level of 0.7105 or Sell Limit orders at 0.7190 with targets at 0.7070, 0.7010, 0.6960, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7230.
Otherwise, place pending Buy Stop Orders at the level of 0.7250 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7380, 0.7430 and stop-loss at 0.7190.

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: oil price as key factor

Current trend

On Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair is declining despite the USD growth against other “commodity” currencies. Today, market participant are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting. Most analysts suggest that the Regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged.
Global economic slowdown and increase in oil production and export, while global supplies exceed demand, negatively affect the price of oil. Thus, the CAD will remain under pressure and the USD/CAD pair will continue its upward trend in the medium term regardless of the Fed interest rate decision.

Support and resistance

The pair has broken down the level of 1.3140 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) and is trading at the upper border of a downward channel on the daily chart, close to the level of 1.3255, the breakout of which may allow the pair to strengthen to year lows at 1.3450. A decline, on the contrary, is restricted by the levels of 1.3140 (23.6% Fibonacci correction), 1.3110 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci correction).
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are likely to turn to short positions.
Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3110.
Resistance levels: 1.3255, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3280 with targets at 1.3310, 1.3390 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3190 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3110, 1.2965, 1.2890 and stop-loss at 1.3230.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil grew by almost $2 above the level of 49.00.
The growth was the result of larger than expected drop in the US oil reserves that was reported yesterday. According to the publication, Gasoline Inventories fell by 1 million barrels, while Distillates Stocks declined by 3 million barrels.
Currently, however, there does not seem to be any factors that would support the growth continuation. Therefore, most likely the price is going to correct downwards.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators give controversial signals.
The price broke out the upper MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands keep widening that confirms downward movement. However, MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing that indicates that Bullish sentiment prevails.
Support levels: 48.00, 47.00, 46.35.
Resistance levels: 49.19, 50.00, 51.00.

Trading tips

Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 48.00 with the target at 47.00.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 50.00 with the target at 51.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair gained support from negative macroeconomic statistics, released in the US, and continues strengthening today. Third quarter GDP growth slowed down from 3.9% to 1.5%, while analysts expected a decline to 1.6%. Personal Consumption Expenditures fell to 1.2% against a forecasted growth to 3.2%. Amid the abovementioned data, the GBP/USD pair has strengthened to its week high at 1.5358, but has not managed to consolidate above this level yet.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands indicator is not giving any clear trading signals. The price range is narrowing down that indicates a possibility of a downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are falling gradually.
Support levels: 1.5308, 1.5280, 1.5240.
Resistance levels: 1.5358, 1.53581, 1.5416.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.5350 with the target at 1.5381. If the price overcomes this level, it may continue growing to 1.5416.
Short positions can be opened after the consolidation below the level of 1.5308 with targets at 1.5280, 1.5240 and 1.5201.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: gold is falling

Current trend

The price of gold significantly fell after statements by the Fed that slowing world economy does not worry the regulator and December rate hikes are still in play.
After these statements, US government 10-year bond yields grew by 2.2% that indicates that investors are getting ready for the rate increase in the near future.
At the same time, markets did not react to yesterday’s data on the US GDP that showed slowing growth rates of the US economy, while gold futures on COMEX closed at 3-month lows.
Most likely, gold will remain under pressure until the next Fed meeting that is due on 14-15 December.

Support and resistance

A breakdown of the support levels at 1167.00 (ЕМА200 and 38.2% Fibonacci correction), 1156.00 (ЕМА144), 1147.00 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1136.00 (23.6% correction) would cancel an upward correction and returns the pair in the downward trend with targets at 1105.00, 1085.00 (year lows).
At the same time, a price return above the level of 1167.00 will resume an upward trend and sends the pair towards 1176.00 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart), 1193.00, 1200.00 (upper border of an ascending channel on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions and start turning to sales on the weekly chart.
Support levels: 1136.00, 1112.00, 1105.00.
Resistance levels: 1156.00, 1167.00, 1176.00.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1144.00 with targets at 1140.00, 1136.00, 1112.00 and stop-loss at 1151.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1157.00 with targets at 1167.00, 1176.00, 1180.00, 1190.00 and stop-loss at 1154.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: RBA decision ahead

Current trend

Non-Farm payrolls for October is due on Friday in the US. If the indicator comes in below the forecast, the Fed would be less likely to raise its interest rates before the end of the year and the USD would be under pressure.
According to TD Securities statistics, released today in Australia, zero inflation was recorded in October. On an annual basis, the indicator grew by 1.8% against a 1.9% forecast. RBA Commodity Index left an annual decline at 19.8% in October.
The RBA meeting is due tomorrow. Due to weak inflation and economic growth indicators, the Regulator may lower it interest rates. Otherwise, the AUD/USD pair would strengthen.

Support and resistance

An upward correction has stopped at the resistance level of 0.7155 (ЕМА144 on the hourly chart). OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend short positions.
The breakdown of the lower border 0.7070 of an upward channel on the daily chart may allow the price to decline to year lows at 0.6900. Alternatively, the price may grow to 0.7380 (October highs), 0.7430 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7500 (23.6% Fibonacci) but only after the consolidation above the level of 0.7190 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7070, 0.6960, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7155, 0.7170, 0.7190, 0.7325, 0.7380, 0.7400, 0.7430.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7115 with targets at 0.7070, 0.7010, 0.6960, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7180.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7210 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7380, 0.7430 and stop-loss at 0.7170.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: remains under pressure

Current trend

On Monday, despite weak US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which declined from 50.2 to 50.1 points in October, the US dollar managed to strengthen against most its counterparts at the end of the trading day.
During last three weeks, the price of gold has been falling, indicating that investors are getting ready for a possible US interest rate hike. As long as there is a 92% correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair, this downward dynamics cannot be overlooked while analyzing further movement of the EUR/USD pair.
Today it is worth noting the ECB President Mario Draghi's Speech. The head of the ECB will comment on prospects of the EU monetary policy.

Support and resistance

OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, weekly and monthly charts are giving sell signals. On the daily chart, they, probably, indicate that an upward correction has not finished yet. While the price remains below the levels of 1.1235 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are more preferable. The breakdown of the level of 1.1020 (the lower border of an upward channel on the weekly chart) may allow the price to continue declining to 1.0860, 1.0820 and 1.0500 (year lows).
Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0860, 1.0820.
Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1235, 1.1285, 1.1350.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the level of 1.0990 with targets at 1.0910, 1.0860, 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.1035 or when the price turns down at the level of 1.1050 with targets at 1.0910, 1.0860, 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.1090.
Open long positions from the level of 1.1120 with targets at 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1250 and stop-loss at 1.1080.

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair is currently under pressure amid news regarding federal budget resolution for the next fiscal year in the US, as it needs to be approved by Congress. Yet the US President Obama expressed his hopefulness that the document will be passed without any delays and signed within the appropriate period.

Support and resistance

Gold continues trading within a descending channel. At present, the price reached its lower border at the level of 1131.50. If it manages to overcome this level, the pair continues falling towards 1100.00. At the same time, an upward correction is possible from the bottom border of the channel. A confirmation of a possibility to consider long positions could be a price consolidation above the level of 1137.99.
Support levels: 1131.50.
Resistance levels: 1137.99.

Trading tips

Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 1131.50 with the target at 1112.55 and stop-loss at 1138.00.

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: review and forecast

Current trend

On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude oil posted the biggest fall in two weeks, having lost about $1.5. The main factor that pushed the price down was a notable increase in US oil production and reserves. Thus, reserves grew by 2.847 billion barrels, while production came in at 9.16 billion barrels. Today, the price continues being under pressure from US news releases.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed down, indicating that the price is likely to continue declining. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling, thus, a sell signal may be formed in the short term.
Support levels: 48.10, 47.00, 46.35.
Resistance levels: 49.00, 50.00, 51.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current levels with the target at 48.00.
Long positions would become valid after the consolidation above the level of 50.00 with targets at 51.00, 52.00.