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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Jul 28, 2025 3:41 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 28, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:


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The pound is sliding to 1.3425, reacting to a fresh slowdown in UK inflation and reduced expectations of further tightening from the Bank of England. The annual CPI for June fell to 2.2%, the lowest since March 2022, allowing the regulator to keep rates unchanged at the August meeting.

Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields intensify capital inflows into dollar assets after a strong US Q2 GDP report (+2.4% q/q). The British economy remains close to stagnation: the services PMI fell to 49.8, indicating shrinking orders and wage pressure.

Political risks also weigh on the pound: the ruling party's parliamentary majority shrank after unscheduled by-elections, complicating the government's implementation of fiscal stimulus. Collectively, this increases the attractiveness of selling the pair ahead of the Fed meeting, where markets price in a possible rate hike by year-end.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3445, TP 1.3325

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Jul 28, 2025 4:48 pm

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Tue Jul 29, 2025 3:02 am

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 29.07.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 119600, SL 118300, TP 126000

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After a slight shakeout with the price breaking down from the previously formed corrective channel and returning back within its limits, the asset has calmed down somewhat. Buyers did not continue to force events, and sellers did not rush to push the price down again.

Based on the current wave pattern, all this looks like price preparation for a sharp upward breakout. This is due to, as previously noted multiple times, the formation of the fifth impulse wave forming within wave [iii].

Thus, the buy recommendation remains relevant.

Investment idea: BUY 119600, SL 118300, TP 126000.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Wed Jul 30, 2025 2:27 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 30, 2025 EURUSD

Events to watch today:

30.07 15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product

30.07 21:30 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:

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EUR/USD remains under pressure amid stronger demand for the US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve decision (July 30, 2025). Market sentiment reflects the perception that the recent US–EU trade arrangements are relatively more favorable for the US economy, reinforcing expectations for stronger corporate earnings and a more supportive external balance in the coming months. Capital flows are skewed toward dollar-denominated assets, also because investors prefer to wait out key central‑bank communications in “quality” instruments.

A further driver is the divergence in macro momentum: the US economy shows greater resilience in consumption and labor markets, while the euro area faces constrained growth and a cautious ECB tone. With little reason for ECB tightening and with lingering risks for European industry and exports after tariff headlines, the euro’s fundamental support looks softer. Persisting uncertainty around the inflation path in the euro area adds to the preference for the USD.

Given these factors, the near‑term fundamental tilt remains to the downside for EURUSD. Risks to this view include unexpectedly dovish Fed communication, a pullback in US Treasury yields, and/or positive euro‑area data surprises that could improve growth expectations and support the euro.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1565, SL 1.1600, TP 1.1515

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Thu Jul 31, 2025 3:20 am

Analysis of margin levels for 31 July 2025 #NQ100


• Long-term trend: long. The maximum concentration of current contract volumes is located in the range of 22700.0–22950.0. Currently, investment transactions are being made above the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates the strength of buyers. #NQ100: BUY 23103.7-23381.2, TP1-23658.7, TP2-24754.2.

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• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range of 22810.0–22880.0 and 23220.0–23320.0. Currently, investment transactions are being carried out above the specified range for #NQ100, which indicates the strength of buyers.

• The area of favourable purchase prices from the point of view of margin coverage is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 31 July 2025.

• The upper limit of zone 1/4 is quoted at 23381.2.

• The upper limit of zone 1/2 is quoted at 23103.7.

• Intraday targets: update of highs from 31.07.2025–23658.7.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ – 24754.2.#NQ100: BUY 23103.7-23381.2, TP1-23658.7, TP2-24754.2.

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• Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 23103.7-23381.2, Take Profit 1-23658.7, Take Profit 2-24754.2.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Fri Aug 01, 2025 2:43 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 1, 2025 GBPUSD​

Events to watch today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Manufacturing PMI

15:30 EET. USD - Nonfarm payrolls

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

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The pound remains under pressure due to the strengthening of the dollar and expectations of further easing of the Bank of England's policy at its meeting on August 7. The regulator's rhetoric in June-July pointed to a “gradual and cautious” course of rate cuts amid weak growth, and the market is pricing in the likelihood of another move at the next meeting. The situation is complicated by the fact that July inflation in Britain unexpectedly accelerated, but the regulator interprets it as a temporary consequence of tariff and price shocks, not wanting to tighten financial conditions excessively.

The external environment is also unfavorable for the GBP: the US has imposed new tariffs on a number of trading partners, strengthening demand for the dollar as a risk-free asset. For the UK, the trade implications are mixed: part of the supply chain is focused on the dollar zone, and industry is sensitive to global demand, which, in the context of prolonged uncertainty, is hitting investment and employment expectations. The risks of a decline in private sector business activity remain elevated.

Today, attention is focused on US employment data: if the labor market confirms its stability, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September will decrease further, which will keep the dollar in the ascendancy. All these factors combined create a bearish bias for GBPUSD in the short term, with any brief rebounds from local oversold conditions typically being used for selling.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3100

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Aug 04, 2025 2:10 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 4, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The euro/dollar pair opens the week consolidating near 1.16 after a sharp rally on Friday, when a weak U.S. July jobs report and sizable downward revisions to prior readings boosted expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. Markets increased pricing for easing as early as September, short-dated Treasury yields retreated, and the dollar’s appeal as a “carry” asset diminished. On Monday, August 4, the greenback steadied somewhat, but the lingering impact of the soft NFP remains a notable driver of the EUR/USD balance of risks.

From the Eurozone, the early-week calendar brings few fresh catalysts, and the ECB’s tone remains cautious amid an uneven recovery. Even so, the key fundamental factor for the pair is the relative trajectory of monetary policies: if markets continue to price a quicker and deeper Fed easing cycle, the rate differential and yield expectations should favor the euro, supporting demand on dips. Softer U.S. inflation risks and a cooling labor market add to that backdrop.

Political and market uncertainty in the U.S. may further amplify short-term dollar volatility. Any new signals from the Fed, comments on the rate path, and upcoming U.S. labor/inflation data will be central to the next impulse in EUR/USD over the coming sessions. The base case for today is that the euro holds much of Friday’s gains amid lower U.S. yields and sustained expectations for an approaching Fed pivot.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1575, SL 1.1525, TP 1.1665

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Mon Aug 04, 2025 3:12 pm

Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia — Lifting Off in the AI Market


The “Big Three” are breaking new records: #Facebook (Meta) surged to $784.39 as AI-powered targeting tools pushed ad revenues higher, #Microsoft hit $551.10 by combining rapid Azure growth with new monetization from Copilot across its ecosystem, and #Nvidia climbed to a record $183.21, driven by unwavering demand for AI computing.

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Key growth drivers:

#Facebook (Meta): Markets welcomed strong ad revenue projections, outweighing concerns about capex. AI tools for ad targeting significantly improved performance.
#Microsoft: Azure’s YoY growth reached ~39%, Copilot crossed 100M monthly users, and the company committed up to $30B in upcoming AI infrastructure.
#Nvidia: Persistent demand for AI GPUs and networking gear from hyperscalers, plus a $4T valuation milestone, keeps momentum strong.


What’s fueling continued upside:

#Facebook (Meta): AI tools like Advantage+ improve audience targeting and ad creatives, while Reels and recommendation feeds increase impressions and eCPM. Large-scale investment in data centers and in-house AI models open new monetization paths. Stable rate expectations also favor growth stocks like META.
#Microsoft: Growth is driven by Azure’s ongoing expansion (~39% YoY), the second wave of cloud migration, and strong monetization via Microsoft 365 and GitHub Copilot. A $30B capex plan will expand data center capacity. A broad portfolio — Windows, Office, Gaming — supports steady margins.
#Nvidia: The AI compute supercycle is in full swing. Demand for H-series GPUs and InfiniBand networks exceeds supply. The clear upgrade roadmap (H200/Blackwell) extends through 2026, while CUDA ecosystem expansion strengthens customer lock-in. Strong cash flow and record valuation support M&A, buybacks, and accelerated development.


According to FreshForex, current price levels make #Meta and #Microsoft attractive for long positions. #Nvidia offers room for both upside and pullbacks, depending on news flow.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Tue Aug 05, 2025 2:46 am

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 05.08.2025 #NQ100

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

#NQ100: FLAT

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The situation remains stable — no significant changes have been observed in the instrument under review. Volatility remains low, and the price continues to move sluggishly and inexpressively.

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However, this lull cannot last forever. Sooner or later, one of the sides will take the initiative, and the market will revive. At the moment, the movement still fits within the framework of the formation of wave 5 of the upward impulse.

It is highly likely that the growth will continue, but at the same smooth and restrained pace. In such conditions, opening new trades seems inappropriate — it is better to wait for a surge in activity and then look for suitable entry points.

Investment idea: FLAT.

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Re: FreshForex - freshforex.com - Best promotions for trader

Postby Volkov Yuriy » Wed Aug 06, 2025 2:54 am

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 6, 2025 GBPUSD

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Event to Watch Today:

06 Aug 11:30 EET – GBP – Construction PMI
06 Aug 17:30 EET – USD – US DOE Crude Oil Inventories
06 Aug 19:45 EET – USD – FOMC Member Mary Daly speaks

GBPUSD:

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Sterling stays on the back foot ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England decision: consensus expects the Bank Rate to be held at 5.25 percent, but markets price only one or two modest cuts by year-end as inflation has slowed to 2.6 percent while June retail sales fell 0.9 percent m/m.

Additional pressure stems from fiscal concerns: the UK Treasury warned that GBP 4 billion of spending cuts will be needed in 2026 to keep the deficit at the 3 percent-of-GDP target, stoking stagflation fears and capping the pound’s upside.

The dollar is buoyed by inflows into US yield assets: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.47 percent, widening the spread over 10-year gilts to 155 basis points—historically associated with GBPUSD weakness.

Trading Recommendation: SELL 1.3285, SL 1.3305, TP 1.3180

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