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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 13.05.2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD: BUY 1.1125, SL 1.1090, TP 1.1350



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The price did not continue developing the correction driven by wave b of y and instead immediately moved down to complete the entire corrective structure. The resulting movement resembles a completed downward impulse. This suggests that the entire complex correction — which took the form of a double zigzag — is now complete. A weak attempt at an upward move is already underway. Cautious long positions can be considered here, with a protective stop-loss placed at the recently formed local low. The nearest target for this upward movement is at the 1.1350 level.

Investment idea: BUY 1.1125, SL 1.1090, TP 1.1350.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Bitcoin blows up the market: $100,000 broken — and this is just the beginning!

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged past the key $100,000 mark again on Thursday, May 8, 2025 — for the first time since February this year. During the day, BTC traded between $101,500 and $102,700, posting a daily gain of around 5.3%. Its market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion.

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Why Bitcoin is back at $100K — and what’s driving it higher:

• Macro tailwinds: Growing expectations of Fed rate cuts, reinforced by Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates, have fueled risk appetite across markets — Bitcoin included.

• US – UK trade deal hype: Hints of a potential trade agreement between the US and the UK announced by President Trump added a major boost to market sentiment, sparking a rally.

• Institutional demand: Massive inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue. Over $1.8 billion flowed in last week alone, with some sources reporting $2.68 billion by Thursday — the largest weekly inflow since mid-December 2024. Companies like MicroStrategy are leading the charge with more BTC purchases.

• Weaker dollar & falling bond yields: These trends have enhanced Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge.

• Market sentiment & BTC dominance: Breaking above $100K triggered optimism and possible FOMO (fear of missing out). Bitcoin’s market dominance now exceeds 60%, the highest since early 2021, reflecting investor preference for BTC over altcoins in the current phase.

The appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, along with a softer US regulatory stance and Arizona’s new pro-crypto law, are setting the stage for continued growth.

FreshForex analysts note that the current rally is mainly driven by institutional players, while retail investors have yet to fully engage.
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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 14, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:



The EUR/USD pair rose on Tuesday, recovering most of the losses from earlier in the week. The pair is currently retesting the 1.1200 mark thanks to a general weakening of the US Dollar in the broad market, rather than any particular bullish momentum in the Euro market.

Market reaction to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday was mostly subdued. Investors remain optimistic that ongoing trade deal negotiations between the Trump administration and various parties will keep sentiment positive, although all trade tariff concessions offered by the Trump team were purely temporary in nature.

US CPI inflation fell slightly in April, hitting a new three-year low on an annualised basis for core inflation. However, the Trump administration's approach of imposing triple-digit tariffs on key trading partners is expected to start to have an impact as early as May, so market experts expect this to be the last strong CPI report for some time.

Also due for release on Thursday is pan-European gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter, but average market forecasts expect the figures to be similar to the previous quarter.

In the US, the second half of the trading week is scheduled for the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data and the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. On Thursday, the US PPI inflation data will be released, and on Friday, important consumer sentiment data will be released.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1200, SL 1.1180 , TP 1.1300

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for 15.05.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 20779.8-21057.3, TP1-21334.8, TP2-22055.0.

• Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at the quotations 19720.0-19930.0. At the moment #NQ100 is making investment transactions higher, indicating the strength of buyers.



• Medium-term tendency: in longing. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 19740.0-19890.0 and 21130.0-21260.0. At the moment, #NQ100 is making investment transactions higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

• The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support, is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 14.05.2025.

• The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-21057.3.

• The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone-20779.8.

• Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 14.05.2025-21334.8.

• Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SNKZ - 22055.0.



• Investment recommendations: buying from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

• Buy: 20779.8-21057.3, Take Profit 1-21334.8, Take Profit 2-22055.0.
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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 16, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) rose against its US counterpart for the fourth consecutive day and reached a new weekly top in the Asian session on Friday. Yen buying has been relentless since the release of weaker-than-expected Japanese first quarter GDP data amid growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again. In addition, trade talks between the US and Japan seem to be progressing as officials continue to meet regularly, which is another factor supporting the Japanese Yen.

The aforementioned factors have overshadowed the recent optimism driven by easing fears of an all-out global trade war, which has recently caused investors to rush into risk assets and away from traditional safe-haven assets, including the Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to struggle to attract buyers as signs of easing inflationary pressures and weak consumer spending data confirmed bets on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is sharply at odds with BoJ expectations and favours the JPY bulls.

Trade recommendation: SELL 144.70, SL 145.70, TP 142.70

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 19, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair demonstrated resilience by recovering from the previous session's losses, trading in the vicinity of the 1.3300 level during the Asian session on Monday. The recovery was primarily driven by renewed pressure on the US dollar (USD) following Moody's Investors Service's downgrade of the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The agency has cited rising debt levels and the increasing burden of interest payments as the main reasons for concern.

This move follows previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor's in 2011. Moody's has forecast that the US federal debt will rise to approximately 134 per cent of GDP by 2035, up from 98 per cent in 2023. The federal budget deficit is projected to widen to almost 9% of GDP, driven by higher debt service costs, increased social spending and lower tax revenues.

A number of weak US economic indicators have reinforced expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, representing the lowest reading since June 2022 and marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had forecast a rise to 53.4.

Despite these unfavourable factors, the US dollar may receive some support from the easing of global trade tensions. The US and China have reached a provisional trade agreement that includes substantial tariff reductions. The United States will decrease its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce its tariffs from 125% to 10%.

Market sentiment is also supported by optimism over a possible US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the British pound (GBP) is gaining momentum, helped by stronger than expected UK GDP data released on Thursday. Both monthly and quarterly figures demonstrated robust economic growth, thereby reinforcing the likelihood that the Bank of England (BoE) may opt to maintain the current interest rate should inflation remain stable or exhibit further acceleration.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3315, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3400

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 20.05.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 102300, SL 104500, TP 97000



From the levels discussed in previous reviews, the expected corrective decline did not immediately materialize as Bitcoin continued pushing higher. However, once the local high was slightly updated, strong selling emerged, and buyers failed to sustain the upward movement. It now seems that the correction started earlier, and this failed bullish attempt is part of a zigzag structure — specifically wave b. The current downward move appears to be wave c of [ii], which still holds solid potential for further decline. As a result, short trades look like a promising setup for the next few days.

Investment idea: SELL 102300, SL 104500, TP 97000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 21, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a new two-week high against a weaker US dollar (USD) during Wednesday's Asian session despite disappointing Japanese trade balance data. Investors are now convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in 2025 amid fears of broader and more entrenched price growth in Japan. These expectations were confirmed by “tough” comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida earlier this week, which continue to have a positive impact on the Yen exchange rate.

In addition, hopes of a trade deal between the US and Japan offset the overall positive risk-off tone and had little impact on the prevailing bullish sentiment around the safe-haven Japanese Yen. On the other hand, the US Dollar remains depressed amid growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further reduce borrowing costs, as well as an unexpected downgrade of the US government's sovereign credit rating. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's decline towards 144.00 and supports the prospects for further downside in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 143.80, SL 144.20, TP 142.90

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#DAX30 Surges to 24,000: What’s Behind the Record-Breaking Rally?

On May 20, 2025, Germany’s benchmark stock index, the #DAX30, crossed the 24,000-point threshold for the first time in its history, reaching an all-time high of 24,079.40. This historic milestone reflects growing investor confidence in the prospects of Europe’s largest economy.

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The surge of the #DAX30 beyond the 24,000 mark was driven by a combination of key factors:

• Improved geopolitical climate: Global tensions have eased — most notably between the United States and China. Signs of de-escalation in trade policy between the world’s largest economies have bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, an improved negotiation climate in Eastern Europe, particularly due to reduced conflict in Ukraine, has helped lower market uncertainty.
• Strong corporate earnings: Major German corporations within the #DAX30 have posted robust quarterly results. Leading the charge were technology giants (e.g., SAP) and industrial powerhouses (such as Siemens and BMW), which reported increased profits despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. This has reinforced confidence in the resilience of German businesses.
• ECB monetary policy expectations: Markets are pricing in a potential easing of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Although interest rates remain elevated, growing signals of a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 are stimulating equity markets and making stock investments more attractive.
• Export growth and trade optimism: The reduction of trade barriers, a stronger euro, and a rebound in global trade have positively impacted export-driven German companies. As one of the world’s leading export economies, Germany is benefiting from a renewed global demand recovery.
• Hopes for domestic reforms: The German government is actively pushing investments in infrastructure, digital transformation, and the green economy. These initiatives are boosting investor sentiment, particularly in the technology and sustainable energy sectors.
• Technical momentum: From a technical perspective, the breakout above the 24,000 level served as a catalyst for speculative capital inflows. Many traders and funds that follow trends and resistance levels initiated buy positions after the breakout, amplifying the upward momentum.

This combination of fundamental and technical drivers has created a powerful growth impulse for the #DAX30. According to analysts at FreshForex, the index may continue its upward trajectory — provided current macroeconomic stability is maintained.

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