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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 30, 2025 EURUSD



Event to watch out for today:

15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States

EURUSD:

The US Dollar is attracting buyers for the second consecutive day amid some repositioning trade ahead of the release of key US macroeconomic data this week. On the other hand, the common currency has been weakened by ‘soft’ signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is proving to be another factor acting as a headwind for EUR/USD. In fact, traders estimate the probability of another ECB rate cut in June at around 75%.

The bets were confirmed by ECB Policy Director Olli Rehn's remarks on Monday, who stated that underlying inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are easing and that we should not rule out a rate cut below neutral. Moreover, ECB executive board member Piero Cipollone said on Tuesday that trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment and eurozone real GDP growth by around 0.2 per cent in 2025-26.

However, US dollar bulls seem reluctant to make aggressive bets amid concerns that Trump's unsustainable trade policies could trigger a sharp slowdown in the economy. In addition, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle is fuelling the dollar's decline and acting as a tailwind for EUR/USD, which requires some caution before positioning for any significant intraday decline.

Meanwhile in the US, the ADP private sector employment report, the advance Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) price index are released. This could have an impact on the US dollar and give some momentum to the EUR/USD pair.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1390, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1480

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Margin analysis of the market for 01.05.2025 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 3266.72-3304.22, TP1-3229.22, TP2-3151.32.

• Long-term trend: Long. The maximum volume concentration of the current contract is located in the range of 3300.00–3330.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating buyer weakness.



• Medium-term trend: Short. The maximum volume concentration of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 3305.00–3320.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

• The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin requirements is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the low of 01.05.2025.

• The quote for the lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 3266.72.

• The quote for the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 3304.22.

• Intraday targets: Updating the lows from 01.05.2025 – 3229.22.

• Medium-term targets: Test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ (likely a specific technical zone or indicator) – 3151.32.



• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Sell: 3266.72-3304.22, Take Profit 1 – 3229.22, Take Profit 2 – 3151.32.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 2, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair is showing downward momentum, falling towards the 1.3275 level during the Asian session on Friday. Some support for the US dollar (USD) is provided against the backdrop of positive signals regarding the prospects of trade negotiations between the United States and China. In the future, market participants will pay special attention to the publication of the April US employment report, which includes key indicators: non-farm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

On Friday morning, Chinese officials said they were ready to consider resuming trade talks with the US. This was the first positive signal since US President Donald Trump announced in April that he would raise import tariffs. The easing of tensions in trade relations between the world's two largest economies and hopes for a resumption of dialog contribute to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, thereby putting pressure on the position of the pound sterling.

According to the data published on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended April 26 increased to 241 thousand, exceeding both the revised value of the previous week (223 thousand) and the market consensus (224 thousand). In addition, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April from the previous reading of 49.0, despite a forecast of 48.0.

At the same time, the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey emphasized that the regulator needs to take into account the potential risks associated with global trade tensions caused by the US tariff policy. Increased uncertainty amid possible escalation of trade conflicts prompts investors to reconsider expectations about further actions of the Bank of England. According to a Reuters poll, financial markets estimate the probability of the base interest rate cut by 25 basis points to the level of 4.25% at the end of the meeting scheduled for May 8 at almost 96%.


Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3310, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3380

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 5, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD- ISM Services Business Activity Index from ISM

USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) traded with a slight positive bias against its U.S. counterpart for the second consecutive day on Monday amid a rebound in demand for the safe-haven currency, although the gains are not bullish. Despite signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China, US President Donald Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy has kept investors on edge. In addition, geopolitical risks are weighing on investor sentiment and providing some support to the yen. In addition, the moderate weakening of the US Dollar (USD) is pushing the USD/JPY pair towards 144.00 during the Asian session.

However, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ‘restrained’ pause last Thursday may deter JPY bulls from aggressive bets. In fact, the BoJ lowered its economic growth and inflation forecasts for the current year, causing market participants to cut bets on an immediate interest rate hike. In addition, traders may refrain from aggressive bearish bets on the dollar and prefer to step aside ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This could serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair and limit any corrective decline from the multi-week high reached on Friday.

Trading recomendation: BUY 144.20, SL 144.00, TP 144.90

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Brent under pressure: A rebound may be coming



In 2025, oil prices have come under significant pressure, falling more than 21% since the beginning of the year — from $75 to around $59 per barrel of #BRENT. This decline was driven by increased production from OPEC+ countries, weak global demand (particularly in Asia), heightened economic risks due to trade disputes, and rising output from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil. Together, these factors created an oversupply amid stagnant demand.

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Currently, the oil market continues to be shaped by a range of influencing factors. While accurately predicting prices remains a challenge, several key drivers are likely to steer oil price movements in the near term. Here’s a look at the main bullish and bearish factors:

• Geopolitical tensions (Bullish driver): Ongoing or emerging conflicts in key oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe) raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. Even without actual disruptions, the perceived risk leads traders to factor in a “risk premium,” pushing prices higher. Any escalation could trigger sharp price spikes.

• OPEC+ policy (Bullish/neutral driver): The alliance’s production decisions remain a major influence on supply. If OPEC+ maintains or tightens its current output cuts to balance the market or target price levels, this will support price growth or at least stability. Conversely, quota breaches or output increases would weigh on prices.

• Global economic outlook (Bearish/bullish driver): The trajectory of global economic growth directly affects oil demand. Signs of GDP slowdowns in major economies (U.S., China, EU) tend to weaken demand and drag prices lower. On the other hand, if economic growth proves more resilient than expected, it would support oil demand and prices. Uncertainty over the growth path of many countries persists in 2025.

• Non-OPEC+ output growth (Bearish driver): Countries outside of the OPEC+ alliance — including the U.S. (shale), Brazil, Guyana, and Canada — continue expanding their production. Significant output increases from these nations could offset OPEC+ efforts and lead to market oversupply, applying downward pressure on prices.

• Energy transition and underinvestment (Medium-term bullish driver): ESG pressures, the global shift toward renewables, and uncertainty around long-term fossil fuel demand have led to underinvestment in new oil exploration and development. If existing capacity declines faster than new projects come online, a structural supply deficit could emerge, supporting higher prices even amid the energy transition.

FreshForex analysts believe that, given ongoing geopolitical risks, strict OPEC+ policies, and underinvestment in production, the oil market is nearing a potential upward reversal. A modest uptick in demand or increased tension could be enough to put oil back on a growth trajectory.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 06.05.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100. BUY: 21940, SL: 20820, TP: 23500.



During the last trading day there were no cardinal changes in the market situation. The cost of the asset is striving for further growth. Having overcome the local maximum, buyers are fixing at new price levels, simultaneously preparing the base for continuation of the upward movement. As mentioned earlier, the current ascent is considered as wave (b) within the corrective movement, which has the form of a narrowing horizontal triangle. This forms an attractive potential for the movement, which is worth trying to capitalise on by opening buy trades. The target of the expected growth is located near the previously fixed absolute maximum, so the profit should be fixed in advance. Investment idea: BUY 20200, SL 19025, TP 21500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 7, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Key Interest Rate Decision

21:30 EET. USD - FOMC Press Conference

EURUSD:




EUR/USD failed to hold on Tuesday, marking a new short-term consolidation range near the key 1.1300 mark as traders wait for a reason to move. The key event this week is the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate announcement in the middle of the week, which has pinned investor sentiment to the pole for now.

The Fed's upcoming rate decision on Wednesday remains the focus of markets this week. While many expect the Fed to maintain current rates, investors will be closely monitoring comments from policymakers, especially Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, for any signs that the shift to a rate-cutting cycle may occur sooner than expected.

Recently, the Fed has been facing increasing pressure to lower interest rates. Market participants have consistently sought lower funding costs, and the Trump administration has been particularly vocal in insisting that the Fed must cut rates to ease the cost of servicing US debt. However, this stance runs counter to the Fed's dual mandate of promoting full employment and controlling price stability, which President Donald Trump does not appear to be taking into account.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1330, TP 1.1440

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Margin analysis of the market for 08.05.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 19634.9-19912.4, TP1-20189.9, TP2-20942.9.

- Long-term tendency: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 19640.0-19900.0. At the moment #NQ100 is investing higher, indicating the weakness of sellers.#NQ100: BUY 19634.9-19912.4, TP1-20189.9, TP2-20942.9.



- Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range, at quotes 19350.0-19450.0 and 19800.0-19900.0. At the moment, #NQ100 is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

- The area of favourable prices for purchase from the point of view of margin support, is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 02.05.2025.

- The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-19912.4.

- The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone-19634.9.

- Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 02.05.2025-20189.9.

- Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the NAV zone - 20942.9.#NQ100: BUY 19634.9-19912.4, TP1-20189.9, TP2-20942.9.



- Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

- Buy: 19634.9-19912.4, Take Profit 1-20189.9, Take Profit 2-20942.9.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 9, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

11:40 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to deliver a speech

GBPUSD:




The GBP/USD pair started Thursday with an early burst of gains, helped by the Bank of England (BoE) providing the market with a widely expected quarter-point rate cut. However, the bullish momentum supporting the Pound quickly evaporated as markets switched to trade news headlines from the United States (US). Investors are hoping for rapid progress on US trade deals that will allow the US to move away from its self-imposed tariff policy.

Market sentiment anchored on the high side and strengthened the US Dollar (USD) after the Trump administration announced an imminent US-UK (UK) trade deal that will allow the UK to avoid high ‘retaliatory’ tariffs on a permanent basis, which were due to come into effect on 9 July after President Trump temporarily refused to impose his own tariffs on ‘Emancipation Day’. However, 10 per cent tariffs will be imposed on all imports into the US from the UK, which could negatively impact market sentiment in the near term.

On key imports such as refined ethanol, the Trump administration has suspended tariffs entirely. The US has reportedly not imported purified ethanol from the UK for at least 15 years.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3230, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3140

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 12, 2025 USDJPY

USDJY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a one-month low against the US dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Monday, reacting to optimism over trade deals between the US and China. On Sunday, the US and China concluded trade talks in Switzerland on a positive note, which boosted investor confidence and undermined demand for traditional safe-haven assets including the yen. In addition, worries over Japan's growth prospects amid uncertainty over US tariffs further weighed on the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar has received support from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause earlier this month and easing fears of a US recession.

However, traders may refrain from aggressive bets and prefer to wait for a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva. In addition, favorable Japanese household spending data released on Friday bolstered the case for further Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalization and should help limit deeper yen losses. Meanwhile, the prospects for further interest rate hikes by the BoJ are strongly at odds with expectations of at least three rate cuts by the Fed. This, in turn, calls for some caution before positioning for a continuation of the USD/JPY pair's recent good recovery from its low for the year, a level just below the psychological 140.00 mark.

Trading recommendation: Trading recommendation: SELL 146.00, SL 146.40, TP 144.90

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