Dear Clients and Partners,
On 17 January 2024, we looked at the prevailing gold (XAU/USD) market trends, exploring historical trends and the key factors influencing the price of the precious metal. We conducted a technical analysis of the price chart and uncovered expert opinions on the gold price outlook for 2024.
Historical analysis of XAU/USD prices
Let us take a look at the gold price performance over the last 140 years:
- Since 1887, during the gold standard period, the US government fixed the gold price at 20.67 USD per troy ounce. After abandoning the gold standard and devaluing the dollar in 1933, the cost of an ounce increased to 35 USD and remained at this level until 1967
- Later in the 1970s, gold prices increased significantly due to international economic and geopolitical instability. From 1971 to 1980, quotes skyrocketed by over 1600%, from 35 to 800 USD per ounce
- In the 1980s-1990s, gold prices corrected downwards as the global and US economies experienced a period of relative stability, with declining oil prices
- In the 2000s, the price level remained relatively stable until the 2008 financial crisis, when quotes soared again from 800 to over 1,900 USD per ounce in 2011. The surge in prices and the end of the crisis were followed by a strong downward correction towards 1,100 USD
- From 2012 to 2020, the global economy and stock markets showed steady growth, with gold trading within a sideways price range from 1,100 to 1,400 USD per ounce
- In 2020, driven by the COVID-19 crisis, gold quotes resumed their upward movement, surpassing 2,000 USD per ounce
- In December 2023, amid rising inflation and geopolitical turbulence, the gold ounce set an all-time price record of 2,150 USD
- Economic indicators. This includes inflation, interest rates, unemployment, GDP, and other economic data. For example, a high inflation rate and economic instability may boost the demand for gold as a store of value
- Geopolitics. Investors traditionally consider gold a safe-haven asset against risks and uncertainty during wars, conflicts, sanctions, political and geopolitical instability, and tensions. Demand for gold typically increases during such periods
- New financial technology. For example, the development of the cryptocurrency market may negatively affect the demand for the precious metal. Investors might invest in digital assets instead of gold, lured by the potential for high returns
- US dollar exchange rate. As global gold prices are set in the USD, the US currency exchange rate fluctuations may also impact the price of the precious metal. Gold prices often fall when the US dollar strengthens since it becomes more expensive for buyers. Conversely, with a weak USD, gold prices may be on the rise
- UBS Global forecasts that gold prices will rise to 2,250 USD per ounce by the end of 2024
- According to Saxo Bank’s specialists, the precious metal quotes will reach the 2,300 USD mark in 2024
- J.P. Morgan expects gold prices to stand at 2,175 USD by mid-2024 amid potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
- According to Wallet Investor, the quotes will hover at 2,058 USD by the end of 2024, rising to 2,104 USD by December 2025
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team