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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 07.04.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:



The EUR/USD pair has shown signs of stabilisation after a decline during the Asian session, reaching 1.0880. For the time being, it appears to have halted its corrective decline from the mid-1.1100 level, which was the highest point since September, reached last week. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.0960, with little change for the day as sentiment remains mixed.

The US Dollar (USD) failed to capitalise on Friday's recovery from a six-month low, and began the new week on a weak note. This was amid speculation that the US economy could enter a recession, and that this would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle. Market analysis indicates the likelihood of the Fed implementing four quarter basis point rate cuts in 2025. This, along with a global flight to safety, is leading to a further sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields, which in turn is undermining the US Dollar and providing some support for EUR/USD.

However, traders are likely to exercise caution in making aggressive bullish bets on the common currency, in light of the risk of a further escalation of the trade war between the US and the European Union (EU). The 27-nation bloc faces 25 percent import tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as cars, and reciprocal tariffs of 20 percent on almost all other goods. In addition, on Monday, the European Commission will propose a list of U.S. goods that will be subject to additional duties in response to Trump's duties. This, along with global market fluctuations, could support the dollar and limit EUR/USD.

Moving forward, traders will be looking to the release of German industrial production and trade balance data, as well as Eurozone investor confidence from Sentix for further indications. However, the focus will remain on trade-related events, which will play a key role in influencing broader risk sentiment and driving demand for the dollar. This, in turn, could provide some momentum to EUR/USD and help traders capitalise on short-term opportunities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0910, SL 1.1000, TP 1.0825

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 08.04.2025 #EURUSD

EURUSD: SELL 1.1000, SL 1.1050, TP 1.0730



There was no continuation of growth as expected. The slightest attempt of upward movement was quickly stopped and the price had nothing to do but to calm down, remaining at the same values. The new trading day will probably be marked by a new attempt of impulsive growth. But this time nothing worthwhile will come out of it. The price will grow slightly, and then there will be a strong pressure from the dollar, which will lead to a good downward movement.

This scenario is conditioned by the fact that the formation of the impulse, which is wave 3, has probably ended earlier. The expected decline in this regard will be a corrective wave 4 and is considered as a zigzag by default. In this zigzag, the first wave is developing, so we are at the very beginning of the movement.

Investment idea: SELL 1.1000, SL 1.1050, TP 1.0730.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental analysis of the market for 09.04.2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBPUSD:



On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair broke a two-day losing streak, finding a technical bounce off the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 mark. Price action remains in a state of uncertainty ahead of the planned imposition of tariffs in the US, with investors maintaining a subdued outlook in anticipation of key US inflation and sentiment data due for release later this week.

Overall, the week has been relatively quiet on the UK economic data front, with Tuesday providing a welcome respite from the usual deluge of geopolitical and trade headlines that have become the norm for the Trump administration in recent weeks. Nevertheless, several key policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have provided insights, cautioning that uncertainty and unintended inflationary consequences from US tariffs could complicate, rather than facilitate, the Fed's rate-cutting efforts.

However, traders continue to bet that the Fed will be forced to cut rates before the end of the year, as the negative economic fallout from the same tariffs could lead the U.S. into recession. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rate swap traders are beginning to raise hopes that the first quarter-point rate cut could come as early as May. However, most betting market participants still see a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in July as more likely, and 100 bps or more by the end of the year.

On Thursday, US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released, followed on Friday by the producer price index (PPI) and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. This will be the latest in a series of key US inflation and sentiment data relating to the 'pre-tariff' period of 2025, which will be a key indicator for the remainder of the calendar year.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2860, SL 1.2780, TP 1.2960

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 10, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD remains stable in a narrow range between the levels of 1.1000 and 1.0900, despite the general recovery of investor interest in risk assets. This trend is observed against the backdrop of the United States' recent refusal to immediately implement its tariff policy. US President Donald Trump announced via social media the administration's decision to postpone the introduction of “retaliatory” tariffs for 90 days. Nevertheless, the current 10 percent duties remain in force for the time being.

Markets promptly reacted to this news by increasing demand, but the short-term strengthening of the euro to the level of 1.1100 was short-lived. The currency pair quickly returned to the previous price frames, remaining within the formed range.

The dynamics of interest rate expectations also changed. Market participants working with interest rate swaps have revised their forecasts and now expect the Federal Reserve to cut the key rate by 75 basis points by the end of this year. Although the baseline scenario suggests a 25 basis points rate cut as early as June, JPMorgan analysts believe it is more likely that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see attitude. This approach is due to the continuing uncertainty in the U.S. trade policy and, as expected, may last at least until September.

Market participants are also focused on upcoming macroeconomic publications. On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to be released, and on Friday - the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the results of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index. These reports will be the last important set of macroeconomic indicators covering the “pre-tariff” period of 2025 and will play a key role in shaping further expectations for the rest of the year.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.0980, SL 1.0910, TP 1.1110

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 11, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair made another bullish move higher on Thursday, helped by a general weakening in demand for the Dollar after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell even faster than expected. Combined with a general weakening of risk flows following the Trump administration's constant merry-go-round of tariffs, which have succeeded each other time and time again, the Dollar's strength has diminished, giving the pair a chance to bounce back from recent losses.

US consumer price index (CPI) inflation came in below expectations in March. Core CPI fell to 2.8% y/y, hitting a four-year low after stubbornly holding above 3.0% for nearly eight months. Core CPI inflation also fell to 2.4% y/y. Investment markets will be devastated if tariffs undo the Federal Reserve's (Fed) multi-year effort to keep inflation in check.

The week will conclude on Friday with the results of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey. The consumer sentiment index is expected to decline again in April as consumers continue to buckle under the weight of the Trump administration's tariff and trade ‘strategy’, falling to a near three-year low of 54.5. Consumer inflation expectations will also be released on Friday. UoM's 1-year and 5-year consumer inflation expectations were 5% and 4.1% respectively.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3050, SL 1.2960, TP 1.3135

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 14, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese Yen (JPY) is attracting new buyers at the start of the new week and remains within reach of the highest level since the end of September 2024 reached last Friday amid significant weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Fears over the rapidly escalating trade war between the US and China and its impact on the global economy continue to support traditional safe-haven assets, including the Yen. In addition, hopes that Japan may strike a trade deal with the US proved to be another supportive factor for the yen.

Meanwhile, signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) alive. Conversely, investors are assessing the possibility of aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid concerns that an escalating trade war between the US and China will hamper US economic growth. This would further narrow the rate differential between Japan and the US, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding yen lies to the upside.

Trade recommendation: SELL 142.50, SL 144.50, TP 140.50

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for 15.04.2025 #BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 85000, SL 83000, TP 95000



The price did not start flying upwards immediately from the first day of the next trading week, although the situation is favorable for it. The past time was spent to consolidate on the levels, which they managed to occupy and to check how aggressive sellers are ready to act this time. And it seems that they had enough strength only to stop the further growth, no pressure of supermercury could be exerted, which indicates the decrease of interest to sales.

Thus, in the near future the price is very likely to continue to grow. This will lead to the formation of an impulsive upward structure. The minimum target in the form of the value of 95000 is still relevant. However, it may well turn out that the buyers will reach the previously established absolute price maximum.

Investment idea: BUY 85000, SL 83000, TP 95000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 16, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is trading in positive territory around 1.1285 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading near a three-year low against the euro (EUR) as trade tensions persist.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the Trump administration's tariff policy was a major shock to the US economy that could force the central bank to cut rates to prevent a recession even if inflation remains high. At the same time, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said the Fed should hold rates until there is more clarity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday amid growing recession fears related to US tariffs.Analysts believe the ECB may cut all three key interest rates at its April meeting on Thursday. The ECB cut interest rates for the second consecutive time in March, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5 per cent. Further cuts would bring the rate down to 2.25%.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Margin analysis of the market for 17.04.2025 EURUSD

EURUSD: Sell 1.13344-1.14024, Take Profit 1-1.12664, Take Profit 2-1.10699.

- Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 1.07800-1.08200. At the moment the pair is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.EURUSD: SELL 1.13344-1.14024, TP1-1.12664, TP2-1.10699.



- Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at 1.13300-1.13550. At the moment the pair is investing lower, indicating the strength of sellers.

- The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 15.04.2025.

- The quotation of the lower border of the zone 1/4-1.13344.

- The quote of the lower boundary of the 1/2 zone-1.14024.

- Intraday targets: renewal of lows from 15.04.2025-1.12664.

- Medium-term targets: test of the upper boundary of ZNKZ-1.10699.EURUSD: SELL 1.13344-1.14024, TP1-1.12664, TP2-1.10699.



- Investment recommendations: selling from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

- Sell: 1.13344-1.14024, Take Profit 1-1.12664, Take Profit 2-1.10699.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 18, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:


The GBP/USD pair continues its upward momentum from 8 April, trading near 1.3280 during the Asian session on Friday. The pair is supported by a weakening US Dollar (USD) amid growing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs on the US.

The dollar found some support after remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who warned that a sluggish economy coupled with robust inflation could call into question the Fed's dual mandate and increase the risk of stagflation.

On the data front, the US Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended April 12 fell to 215,000, ahead of expectations, from a revised 224,000 in the previous week. However, jobless claims for the week ended 5 April rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million.

UK economic data is showing signs of resilience, with wage growth and improving GDP figures. However, weakening inflation is fuelling expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). March's consumer price index slowed to 2.6% year-on-year, below forecasts, while monthly inflation fell to 0.3%. Core services inflation, the Bank of England's key indicator, fell to 4.7%.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3280, SL 1.3150, TP 1.3480

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