LiteForex Market Analytics

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:00 am

GBP/USD: how high can the Pound climb?

Current trend

Steady growth of the British currency against the USD is slowing down. At the beginning of the week the pair gained over 100 points amid favourable statistics on the British PMI. Additional support to the pair was provided by the negative data on the key US indices.
Today the pair continues to go up by inertia and due to support from the positive data on the British construction sector. However, it is worth noting that despite positive fundamental data the pair is not moving up very quickly, which means that in the near future the pair may undergo correction.
Economic calendar shows that today the data on US manufacturing orders will be known, which is expected to be negative, and Janet Yellen will make a speech. If her speech will be pessimistic, the pair GBP/USD can go to the levels of 1.7200 and 1.7250 and then will undergo the correction with the target of 1.7060. In the medium-term the pair is likely to continue the rise to the target level of 1.7300, especially, if the Bank of England launches monetary policy tightening or the rise of the key interest rates.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.7150, 1.7060, 1.7000, 1.6850 and 1.6810.
Resistance levels: 1.7200, 1.7250, 1.7300 and 1.7360.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to trade in accordance with the trend, placing pending buy orders from the levels of 1.7060 and 1.7000 with taking profit at the level of 1.7300.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:46 am

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

European currency is slowly going down against the USD. The price of Euro failed to consolidate above Murray level of 0/8 (1.3672) and fell to1.3653.
The data on the retails sales in EU, which was released today, did not have significant impact on the movement in the pair; the index amounted to 0% against expectations of 0.3%. Business activity index in Europe reached the level of 52.8 points, which was expected. Today, traders do not rush to open positions prior to the meeting of ECB, where changes in the interest rates will be announced. Some experts believe that the regulator can reduce key interest rate in order to launch the program to combat inflation.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 0/8 Murray (1.3672). Support level is 1.3550 (1/8 Murray).

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3672 with protective orders at 1.3620 and the target of 1.3794.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:53 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair has been corrected down to the blue line, which remains a support level (1321.19). Tenkan-sen line is a resistance level (1325.63).

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XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. The pair is trying to leave the cloud; however, the upper border won’t let it. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support level (1319.14). If the pair is able to consolidate above the cloud, next resistance level will be at one of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span (1334.65).

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Key levels

Support levels: 1321.19, 1319.14.
Resistance levels: 1325.63, 1334.65.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see the beginning of trend reversal. However, short trades shouldn’t be opened unless we’ve got a confirmation signal. The cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines or the cross of the price chart and Chinkou Span line would be such signal.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:55 am

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Following the release of the business activity index of Japan, the pair went up above the level of 101.65 and continued to rise aiming at reaching the level of 102.00. Investors expected that the US labour market data would be positive and their projections proved to be correct, which helped the pair to go above the level of 102.00. As it became known, in June the number of new jobs outside agricultural sector increased by 288 000 thousand against the forecast of 215 000, while unemployment rate fell from 6.3% to 6.1%. American economy continues to recover, which is a favourable momentum for the pair USD/JPY. Earlier this week the pair broke down resistance level of 102.00 and reached the level of 102.25. However, at the Asian session today the pair had corrected to support level of 102.00, which prevented further decline in the pair. Today the market is going to be sluggish due to Independence Day in the USA. It is likely that the pair will move in the narrow range above the level of 102.00.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is 102.00, which is also the key level of the “bears”. Next support levels will be 101.90, 101.80 and 101.65. Resistance levels: 102.20, 102.25 and 102.35.

Trading tips

Short positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 102.00 with the target of 101.30. Buy positions can be opened after consolidation of the price above the level of 102.25.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:14 am

EUR/USD: USD is regaining positions, while investors’ interest to Euro is decreasing

Current trend
As expected, at the beginning of last week the pair had pushed off from the upper limit of the downward channel and went up, losing over 100 points. The pair was affected by the poor macro-economic statistics of the major European economics, including the decline in the retail sales of Germany. At the same time the USD is slowly strengthening with the help of support of the US labour market statistics.
Some key European events will be held today, including a speech of the chairman of European Central Bank, Mr. Mario Draghi and the meeting of European Group.

Support and resistance
It is likely that the pair will continue to decline and will again reach the local lows of 1.3500. After breakdown of this level the pair will go down to support levels of 1.3470 and 1.3400. In the medium-term the pair may fall to the target level of 1.3300.

Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000.

Trading tips
In the current situation it makes sense to open short and pending short positions from the levels of 1.3660 and 1.3720 and take profit at the level of 1.3300.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:39 am

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD

USD/CAD, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are almost merged and can soon form trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair was trying to overcome Tenkan-sen (1.0648) and Kijun-sen (1.0650) lines but still remains below them. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0623.

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USD/CAD, D1
At the daily Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is still descending. Tenkan-sen line remains resistance level at 1.0686. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0584.

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Key levels
Support levels: 1.0623, 1.0584.
Resistance levels: 1.0650, 1.0686.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the rise of the pair is blocked by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines? The pair will probably continue to fall. Targets for the short positions are 1.0623 and 1.0584.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:35 am

GBP/USD: only drastic measures of the Bank of England can provoke the rise in the pair

Current trend

Last week the pair traded in the narrow sideways channel of 1.7170-1.7100. Today the British currency was under pressure from negative data on industrial output and the volume of industrial output in the manufacturing sector. Contrary to experts’ expectation of the rise, the indices significantly declined. The pair GBP/USD went down and consolidated near support level of 1.7100.
Today the volume of consumer lending in the USA will become known and a member of Open Market Committee of the US Fed Mr. Kocharloct will give a speech. It is worth noting that the USD started to regain slowly, as well as US economy as a whole, which followed after the disastrous results in Q1. However, the decisions of the Bank of England will act an important part in the fight between the Pound and the USD.

On Thursday the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and the decision on the program of assets purchase. Mark Carney will make his comments and any hint on monetary tightening or the increase of the rates will provide huge support to the British currency. In the medium-term the pair is likely to continue ascending movement with the target level of 1.7300.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.7100, 1.7000, 1.6920, 1.6850, 1.6810 and 1.6780.
Resistance levels: 1.7150, 1.7170, 1.7200, 1.7250 and 1.7300.

Trading tips

It is recommended to place long and pending long positions from the level of 1.7000 and take profit at the level of 1.7300.

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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:51 am

USD/CHF: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The currency pair USD/CHF started this week with the decline to the level of 0.8928. The pair is undergoing this downward correction due to the positive data on the American labour market for June. The Franc was also supported by the data on the decline of industrial output in Germany by 1.8% in May. The decline of this important index caused the increase in purchases of Swiss Franc, which acts as a safe-haven currency.
Today the price of USD/CHF started to grow again, due to weak data on retail sales in Switzerland. The index fell by 0.6% in May.

Support and resistance

At the moment the price is slowly growing, moving along the moving average line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator. It is possible that the price can go up the level of 0.8960 today. If the middle average line is broken down, the pair may undergo downward correction to the level of 0.8910. Technical indicators confirm probability of the rise in price. Bollinger bands are rising. MACD indicator is in the positive zone, its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines have left oversold zone and formed a buy signal.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions from the level of 0.8945 with the target of 0.8960. Short positions with taking profit at the level of 0.8910 can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 0.8935.
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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:27 am

EUR/USD: Positive outcome of the FOMC meeting will give a confidence boost in the USD

Current trend

Following significant decline last week, the pair Euro/USD tried to win back losses at the beginning of this week. However, after the slight rise the pair went down due to favourable data on the US NFPR. This morning the pair traded in the narrow range prior to the release of the minutes of the US FOMC, which investors are waiting with big interest.
It is worth noting that overvalued dollar is gaining popularity among investors again. While, investors’ interest to the European currency, on the contrary, is decreasing amid poor macro-economic data and probability of another round of monetary policy easing in the near future.

Support and resistance

“Bullish” sentiments prevail at the market and it is likely that the pair will continue to decline to the local lows of 1.3520 amid strong American data. In the medium-term the demand for the American dollar will increase and the pair will continue to fall to the target level of 1.3300.

Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to trade in accordance with the trend placing sell orders and taking profit at the level of 1.3300.

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Dmitry Likhachev
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Re: LiteForex Market Analytics

Postby LiteForexTeam » Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:42 am

Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of crude oil Brent continues to decline slowly but steadily. However, as long as the conflict in Iraq has not spread into the South of the country, where most of the largest oil productions are located and until Libya does not increase oil supplies, nothing seems to trigger the rise in price. Brent price fell below the level of $109.00 and reached monthly lows at $108.40. Market participants are waiting for the data on oil and oil products inventories at the US warehouses as per API. Analysts believe that oil inventories fell by 2 million barrels. Investors also await outcome of the meeting of the US Fed devoted to open market transactions (21:00 GMT+3).

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that downward movement may continue. Bollinger bands are directed downwards; however, the price has broken down the lower line, indicating the chance of short-term correction to the middle moving average line at the level of 110.00. However, this scenario is unlikely. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are rapidly increasing.
Support levels: 108.35, 107.60, 107.00 and 106.25.
Resistance levels: 109.00, 110.00, 110.60 and 111.10.

Trading tips

If current trend maintains it is recommended to open sell positions with the nearest target of 107.60. Next target of the “bears” will be the level of 107.00 and 106.25.

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