Forex News from InstaForex

[IFX Gertrude]

Usd/myr Looks to Rally Towards 3.65, Weak China Pmi to Add to Myr Woes



MYR NDFs surged to new high at 3.66 on Friday night

China Jan PMI at 49.8 vs expected 50.2 - add to Malaysia exports worries

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Monetary Base Climbs 37.4% In January



The monetary base in Japan jumped 37.4 percent on year in January, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, coming in at 275.385 trillion yen. That follows the 38.2 percent spike in December. Banknotes in circulation added 3.5 percent on year, while coins in circulation gained 0.7 percent. Current account balances surged an annual 66.2 percent, including a 66.7 percent spike in reserve balances. The adjusted monetary base climbed 50.2 percent to 277.267 trillion yen.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Gas Prices Have Bottomed For Now



After declining a record 123 consecutive days, U.S. gas prices seem to have bottomed out. According to this week's Energy Information Administration "Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update", average US gas prices edged up from $2.044 per gallon on January 26 to $2.068 per gallon on February 2. However, US gas prices are still well below the $3.292 per gallon they were a year earlier. Average gas prices had dropped to nearly $2 per gallon due to the steep decline in the cost of crude oil during the previous six months. Gas prices generally are at or near seasonal lows in January due to relatively weak demand. Many Americans cut back on driving and travel during the cold winter months, which can allow gasoline supplies to build. "Many drivers are noticing an uptick in gas prices for the first time in months," said Avery Ash, AAA spokesman. "It is typical to see gas prices increase this time of year due to refinery issues, yet hopefully the consumer impact will be less problematic given how low prices are today." AAA expects gas prices to increase this month due to refinery maintenance and decreased production. Gas prices in February have increased during the previous five years by an average of 22 cents per gallon, according to AAA.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China January Trade Data to Benefit from Holiday Distortion



China's January trade data is due on 8 February. Notes from Standard Chartered Research says: While global economic momentum remains weak, the later timing of the Lunar New Year (LNY) should help. We expect export growth of 7.5% y/y versus 9.7% prior. Despite the resilient US recovery, demand from the EU and Japan is lagging, and EM demand has been hit by the USD rally and falling commodity prices. The sub-index of new export orders in the official PMI data showed softer external demand in January. We expect import growth to have fallen by 1% y/y, versus -2.4% in December. Sluggish domestic demand and falling commodity prices should continue to weigh on import growth, but the later LNY will likely act as a boost. We expect the trade surplus to remain high at c.USD 48.5bn.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Oil Back Up, Usd Back Down



Another day, another >5% swing in oil prices-this time higher overall. That helped CAD and NOK, but no more so than most other majors, as the biggest theme in FX was broad USD weakness. EUR managed to be the marginal top performer alongside DKK. At least part of that support may have come from central bank flows as the Danish Central Bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75% in defense of pressure on the EURDKK peg. That's the fourth cut this year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Ireland Construction Sector Growth Slows In January



The growth in the Irish construction sector eased at the beginning of the the year to mark its lowest level in almost one year, as activity and new orders rose at a slower pace, data from a survey by Markit Economics showed Monday. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Mangers' index dropped to 57.1 in January from 63.1 in the previous month. However any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. This signaled a sharp overall increase in total activity during the month, albeit the weakest since February 2014. Among the three sub categories of construction, commercial activity remained sharp during January despite easing for the third month running. At the same time. housing activity increased at a slowest pace and logged its weakest rise since August 2013. Civil engineering activity rose for the fourth straight month in January. The rate of growth in new orders slowed to the weakest level since August 2013, but remained solid during the month. In contrast to the slowdown of growth in activity and new orders, employment level in the construction sector remained strong and was only slightly weaker than in December, underpinned by Positive expectations regarding workloads in coming months. "The pace of jobs growth eased only slightly and remained strong. Moreover, sentiment ticked up from December levels and was the second-highest in the series history behind the record reached last November, suggesting that firms retain a very positive view of the year-ahead outlook despite an apparent easing in the pace of activity in January," Simon Barry, Chief Economist Republic of Ireland at Ulster Bank, said. On the price front, input prices climbed sharply in January due to the relative weakness of the euro. But this factor outweighed falls in the cost of fuel, thereby preventing a slowdown in the rate of input price inflation.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysia Expects Q4 Gdp to have slowed Versus Previous Quarters: Standard Chartered





Quotes from Standard Chartered Malaysia is due to release Q4-2014 GDP and current account data on 12 February. We expect GDP growth to have slowed to 5.0% y/y from an average 6.1% in the first nine months of the year. This would translate into full-year growth of 5.8%, the fastest since 2010, despite the slowdown towards end-2014. We expect net external demand to have contributed positively to growth, unlike in recent years. Malaysia forecast challenges to growth, particularly in Q1-2015, on lower global oil prices. We expect the current account balance to have narrowed to MYR 6.2bn in Q4 from MYR 7.6bn in Q3.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Consumer Confidence Rises In January



An index measuring consumer confidence in Australia surged in January, the latest survey from Westpac Bank and the Melbourne Institute showed on Wednesday. The index spiked 8.0 percent to a score of 100.7, touching a 13-month high. That follows the 2.4 percent gain in December to 93.2. "This is a much stronger result than we had expected. It represents the first time since February last year that we have seen a majority (albeit miniscule) of optimists over pessimists. It is also the highest level of the Index since January last year," Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans said.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Core Machine Orders Jump 8.3% In December



Core machine orders in Japan climbed 8.3 percent on month in December, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday. That topped expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the 1.3 percent gain in November. On a yearly basis, core machine orders surged 11.4 percent - also beating forecasts for an increase of 5.6 percent following the 14.6 percent plummet in the previous month. For the fourth quarter of 2014, core machine orders added just 0.4 percent on quarter. For all of 2014, they gained an annual 4.0 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Aud/usd up to 0.7767 As Shorts squeezed on Rba Comments



Comments coming thick and fast fm Stevens/Kent but not dovish enough

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