LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: Introduction of sanctions has led to the rise in oil prices

Current trend

On Thursday, following long-lasting decline the price crude oil Brent has corrected upward. The rise was caused by the fact that Russia and the USA exchanged sanctions against senior officials, their accounts will be frozen and access to their property will be blocked. Investors fear further aggravation and reformation of the tension into the trade warfare, which threatens to cause serious economic losses in the world economy in general. The price has gained over 150 points and reached resistance level of 106.97, however was not able to exceed it. In the near future quotes of Brent will remain under influence of foreign policy around Crimea. A lot will depend on whether the USA dares to start selling strategic oil reserves in order to reduce dependence of EU on Russian supplies.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is trying to go above the level of 106.97 (the upper moving average line of Bollinger bands indicator.) Breakdown of this level will allow the price to grow to 107.35, 107.70, 108.15 and 108.45 (38.2% Fibonacci). In case of opposite situation the price may correct to 106.35 (moving average line of Bollinger bands, 23.6% Fibonacci).

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions with the target of 108.45 can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 106.97. Short positions with profit taking at the level of 106.35 can be opened if the price falls below the level of 106.80.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend
The pair USD/JPY is rising after last week fall, which was determined by the conflict between Russian and USA. The Dollar is supported by the FRS decision to reduce QE3 program once more. From the other hand Yen is weakened by soft monetary policy of BOJ. Japanese regulator won’t change the interest rates unless inflation rate is 2%.
Economic calendar is almost empty today, so we’re going to use technical indicators for the forecasts. On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to buy. Bollinger Bands show a divergence, MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volumes are increasing.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 102.60, 103.00, 103.40.
Resistance levels: 102.00, 101.55, 101.20.

Trading tips
Long trades can be opened above 102.60 with target at 103.00. The breakdown of 103.00 will allow the pair to reach the level of 103.40.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: long-term downward correction

Current trend
Following sharp decline in the pair related to the reduction of the US QE3 program, European currency started slowly win back positions against the USD. Today favourable data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector of France had added support to the pair; however after the release of poor data from Germany the pair went down again. At the moment the pair GBP/USD is trading at the level of 1.3800. In the afternoon, monthly report of Bundesbank will be made public, as well as US business activity index in the manufacturing sector. Forecast of this index is negative.

Support and resistance
Weak EU statistics along with decreasing demand for risky assets will put huge pressure on the pair EUR/USD. Following significant decline the pair is expected to correct slightly to the key resistance level and local highs of 1.3830. After that the pair will continue to go down, aiming to reach the level of 1.3650. In the medium-term, the pair will decline to the level of 1.3560.

Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3650, 1.3560 and 1.3480.
Resistance levels: 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4000 and 1.4130.


Trading tips
It is recommended to open short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3650. Pending buy orders can be placed from the key support level of 1.3560 with profit taking at the level of 1.4000.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 24-28 March 2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuLqal0 ... 3NfndBfCqg

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: will the pair be able to break out psychologically important level?

Current trend

Downtrend prevailed during last week. Continuation of phasing out of QE3 in the USA provided additional support to the USD and increased investors’ interest to the American currency. The pair GBP/USD lost over 200 points and consolidated at the key support level of 1.6470. Due to lack of British and USA news yesterday, the pair traded in the narrow channel. The level of 1.6470 is psychologically important mark and breakout of this level will trigger long-0term decline in the pair.
British indices of retail, purchasing, consumer and distributing prices will become known today, as well as US index of consumer confidence and the data on construction sector. All forecasts are negative.

Support and resistance

If the “bulls” manage to drag the pair below support level of 1.6470, decline will continue up to the levels of 1.6250, 1.6100 and 1.5900. Alternative scenario: rebound from the level of 1.6470 and the rise in the ascending channel with the target of 1.6910-1.7000.

Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6250, 1.6100 and 1.5900.
Resistance levels: 1.6580, 1.6830, 1.6910 and 1.7000.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6600 and short stop-loss. It is also advisable to place sell orders below the level of 1.6450 with profit taking at the level of 1.6250.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD

USD/CAD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. After strong rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line, which becomes a resistance level at 1.1215. Support level is the upper border of the cloud at 1.1086.



USD/CAD, D1

At the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, indicating new wave of upward movement. However, both red and blue lines are horizontal, indicating consolidation phase. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is still ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (1.1152). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.1243.



Key levels

Support levels: 1.1086, 1.1152.
Resistance levels: 1.1215, 1.1243.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart short positions with targets at 1.1086 can be opened as soon as Tenkan-sen crosses Kijun-sen or Chinkou Span crosses the price chart.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: USD is expected to strengthen

Current trend

Yesterday morning European currency fell against the USD amid poor macro-economic German data. Business sentiment index fell below the forecast and the pair reached support level of 1.3750. In the mid-day Euro won back positions due to weakening in American dollar caused by negative data from construction sector. The speech of the chairman of ECB did not help pair to rise above the level of 1.3830.
Today, consumer confidence index of Germany became known. The index remained unchanged at the level of 8.5 points. Volume of orders of durable goods in the USA will be released today too. The main event of tomorrow is the final release of US GDP. If positive forecast is justified, the USD will receive significant support and the pair will go down.

Support and resistance

The nearest target of the downtrend is the key support level and the highs of October at 1.3650. It is likely that decline will continue to the level of 1.3560, which is important psychological level.
Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3650, 1.3560 and 1.3480.
Resistance levels: 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4120.

Trading tips

It is recommended to place short positions with take profit at the level of 1.3650 and stop-loss at 1.3870.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: ascending movement will continue

Current trend

Since the beginning of this week the currency pair NZD/USD has traded in the uptrend, slowly regaining from losses, caused by the US Fed decision to reduce bond purchase program. Negative US statistics puts pressure on the American dollar. Business activity index in the US manufacturing sector fell below the forecast, estimated by Markit and Richmond fell, reaching 55.5 and 7 points respectively.

Poor results were also demonstrated by the housing market. Sales of new houses fell below the level of January, amounting to 440 thousand.
Volume of orders for durable products in the USA for February will become known today. According to forecast this index can be the best since November last year, reaching the level of 1.1%, which will provide support to the American currency.

Support and resistance

In the near future the price will continue to go up to the levels of 0.8610 and 0.8640. However, correction, (which is not excluded, due to fundamental data), can reach the levels of 0.8580 and 0.8560 (middle moving average of Bollinger bands indicator).

Technical indicators confirm a chance of ascending movement. Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence, confirming uptrend; however the price chart has broken down the upper moving average, which suggests correction. MACD histogram has moved to the positive zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic lines have entered overbought zone, demonstrating a similar signal.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to place long positions from the current price level with take profit at 0.8640. Short positions can be opened if the price falls to the level of 0.8580.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: investors anticipate the rise of USD after publication of the US GDP

Current trend

On Wednesday the British currency significantly rose against the USD. The pair had pushed off from the lower limit of the ascending channel and reached the level of 1.6600. Today a lot of important British and US news will become known, including volume of retail sales for February in the UK and GDP for Q4 and number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the USA.
It is worth noting that according to expectations US GDP will exceed current level of 0.3%. If this index confirms this forecast, the USD will get strong support. In case of strong US data the pair GBP/USD will fall to the local lows of 1.6470. Breakout of the key support level of 1.6470 is unlikely. The pair will probably fall to the local lows and after that will experience correction with the target of 1.6900.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6250, 1.6100 and 1.5900.
Resistance levels: 1.6580, 1.6660, 1,6830 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions with take profit at the level of 1.6900. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.6470.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Crude oil Brent has exceeded the upper limit of the trading channel on H4 chart. The rise in the instrument can continue but situation in the oil market will depend on geopolitical situation. On the one hand oil is supported by situation in Libya, where oil production in one of the largest deposits has been suspended, which can reduce daily oil production to 0.15 million barrels.
On the other hand, the USA plans to negotiate with Saudi Arabia about the increase of oil production. Therefore, American authorities want to bring down oil prices and undermine economy of Russia. According to economists Saudi Arabia has about 25% of the world oil reserves and can influence on pricing. It is not clear yet if Americans manage to cut down oil price but the fact of such negotiations can destabilize oil market.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is the moving average with the period of 200 (108.50). Support level is the bottom limit of the trading channel (105.36).

Trading tips

It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 107.21 with stop-loss at 107.00 and a target of 108.38.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies