LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: next target of the “bulls” is the level of 1.3830

Current trend
It is expected that last Friday European currency would grow against the USD; however ascending movement slowed down and the pair EUR/USD shifted to the stage of consolidation. All day the pair traded below the key resistance level of 1.3700. New trading week started with the rise in Euro. However, following the increase in bear’s stop-losses, the pair reversed and went down. Volatility is not expected to be high today, as America celebrates President Day; not many European news are scheduled for today either. The pair is likely to go back to 1.3630.
This week investors will be guided by the data on business activity index in EU and US labor marker statistics. In the medium-term Euro will grow against the USD up to the key resistance level and local highs of 1.3830.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3470 and 1.3400.
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830.

Trading tips
It is advisable to place pending buy orders above resistance level of 1.3700 with a target of 1.3800-1.3830.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 17-21 Feb 2014

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsWZZmr ... 3NfndBfCqg

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the USD. Today, the pair was able to overcome resistance level at the upper limit of the trading channel and consolidated at the level of 0.9068. Although technical indicators show that the AUD is in the uptrend, fundamental data does not encourage the growth. Unemployment rate in the country has reached record high of 6%. Such large companies as Toyota and General Motors are planning to reduce jobs at their plants, since strong national currency has a negative impact on the price of the final product, reducing its appeal to the international market. Amid negative data on the labour market, Central Bank of Australia is unlikely to raise interest rate in the near future.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is the local highs of 0.9085. Support level is the limit of the trading channel (0.9034).

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 0.9030 with protective orders at 0.9054 and a target of 0.8880.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: long correction can turn into downtrend

Current trend

Following rapid rise of the previous week, the pair GBP/USD reversed and sharply went down, losing over 100 points this Monday. The decline was provoked by numerous profit- taking orders of the “bulls.” Demand for the overbought Pound significantly dropped and many traders open short positions in anticipation of the downward correction.
Today, some important British macro-economic statistics will be released. Forecast for it is negative. According to statistical agencies, retail sales in January will drop by 0.5%, consumer price index for the same period will fall by 0.6%. Important American economic news is not expected today.

Support and resistance

It is likely that the pair GBP/USD will sharply go down, probably up to support level of 1.6660. in future downward movement may continue towards the target of 1.6540 (Fibonacci line 50%) From this level uptrend may resume or probably the pair will experience minor upward correction, after which downtrend can continue.
Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540, 1.6470 and 1.6400.
Resistance levels: 1.6740, 1.6810 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

It makes sense to place pending sell orders below key support level of 1.6660 with profit taking at the level of 1.6540.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of this week the pair had reached the local highs and after that started to decline. The pair NZD/USD reached the level of 0.8280, but failed to break it down. The level of 0.8280 coincides with the line 61.8% Fibonacci, being a strong support level. “Bears” will need additional momentum to overcome this level. It is likely that the pair will return to the level of 0.8390. Technical indicators give mixed signals. MACD histogram has crossed the zero line from top to bottom, forming a sell signal, while Stochastic lines have crossed in the oversold zone and are rising.

Support and resistance

Support levels are 0.8300 and 0.8280; the latter one is the main target of the “bears”. Resistance levels are 0.8335, 0.8360 and 0.8390.

Trading tips

The pair is likely to continue growth. Long positions are recommended with the target of 0.8390. Limit sell orders can be placed at the same level.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: euro needs strong growth catalyst

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair EUR/USD continued to grow amid weakening of the USD. Despite the fact that investors were disappointed by ZEW indices in Germany and Eurozone, the pair went up to the level of 1.3770 after publication of negative macro-economic US data.
Construction sector statistics of Europe will be released today; construction indices have remained negative for a few months. Producer price index in the USA will also become known. European positive sentiment, raised by acceleration of economic growth rate in European countries, is fading away. Demand for Euro is decreasing and the pair slows down upward movement. America‘s macro-economic statistics is not encouraging either. The USD is significantly weakening against major currencies.

Support and resistance

The pair is likely to test local highs of 1.3770 again; however further upward movement is unlikely. The pair is expected to move in the sideways in the wide range of 1.3830-1.3630.

Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3630 and 1.3600.
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Trading tips

It is recommended to place pending orders to buy from support level of 1.3630 with profit taking at the level of 1.3830.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: Pound is ready to decline, while the USD is still weak

Current trend

The pair cannot determine further movement direction for a few days. GBP/USD several times tried to break down key support level of 1.6660, but did not succeed. British currency is significantly overbought and weak economic British data negatively affects Pound. Yesterday, following the news that unemployment rate in the UK rose, the pair fell reaching the level of 1.6660, after which the pair went up again. Downward movement does not persist only for one reason: weak dollar, which is in the low demand among investors, continues to decline amid negative US statistics.
Important British economic news is not scheduled for release today. At the same time, U.S. data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, consumer price index and business activity index will be known.

Support and resistance

In order to break down key support level of 1.6660 the USD needs support of the strong American statistics. Favourable data on initial applications for unemployment benefits can act as such catalyst. If it happens, the pair will go to 1.6540. In the medium-term the pair will try to reach the level of 1.6250.

Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470.
Resistance levels: 1.6740, 1.6810 and 1.6900.

Trading tips

It is recommended to place pending short positions below the level of 1.6650 with profit taking at the levels of 1.6540 and 1.6400.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAG/USD

XAG/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are getting closer. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. After a long rise the pair is being corrected. Tenkan-sen (21.33) and Kijun-sen (21.66) lines have become support and resistance levels respectively.



XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 20.94. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a resistance level at 22.73.



Key levels

Support levels: 21.33, 20.94.
Resistance levels: 21.66, 22.73.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the pair is being corrected, however daily chart confirms the continuation of upward trend. Target for the long positions is 22.73.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: Euro continues to weaken

Current trend

On Thursday the pair EUR/USD was under strong pressure from fundamental facts. Following the release of negative preliminary data on business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Eurozone, exchange rate of the pair has lost over 100 points and reached support level of 1.3685. Volume of industrial output in large European countries has dropped: in Germany business activity index fell to 54.7 points, in France the same index fell to 48.5 points, which is below the threshold. European index fell from 54 to 53 points. However, in the evening the pair corrected and regained some of the losses, reaching the level of 1.3727.
Correction was triggered by negative statistics from the USA. It became known that business activity index in Philadelphia fell to -6.3 points. Today, movement in the pair can be affected by the speech of James Bullard. It is assumed that the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can announce new performance targets for changes in the country’ monetary policy.

Support and resistance

At the moment the price of the pair resumed downward movement, trying to reach the level of 1.3685 (lower line of indicator “Bollinger bands”). Breakdown of this level will enable the pair to go down to the levels of 1.3665 and 1.3685. In case of different situation, the price can return to the level of 1.3730 (middle line of Bollinger bands).
MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed upwards.

Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions. Pending orders to buy can be placed at the level of 1.3685 with profit taking at the level of 1.3730.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend

American dollar continues to decline against Swiss Franc. However, as soon as the pair reached the lower limit of the trading channel at the level of 0.8855, the decline slowed down and the USD managed to regain some of the losses. Some support to the pair was provided the rise in the index of leading indicator (+0.3% in January). The rise in the index is associated with gradual recovery of the American economy and the rise in price of real estate.
Attention today shall be focused on the US news, among which will be the data on sales of secondary housing markets. If changes in the index will amount to -4.3%, positions of the American dollar can significantly falter.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is the middle limit of the trading channel (0.8950). Support level is 0.8856 (lower limit of the trading channel).

Trading tips

It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 0.8950 with protective orders at 0.8925 and a target of 0.9019.



Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies