LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair EUR/USD is still under pressure from the bears. Strong USD and the lack of strong macro-economic data from Eurozone do not give the pair EUR/USD a chance to change trend. Last week retail sales in Germany fell by 2.5% on monthly basis. Economists had expected that this index would remain at the previous level. In addition, inflation rate in Eurozone declined by 0.1% to the level of 0.7%, reaching the lows of many years. However, the key level of 2.0% set by ECB is still far away. Sellers have already tested support level of 1.3475 today, and it is likely that this level will be broken down in the near future.

Support and resistance
First support level is 1.3475. Next support levels are 1.3440 and 1.3395. Resistance levels are the local highs of 1.3515, 1.3555 and 1.3600.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart technical indicators show further decline in rate. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Bollinger bands are directed downwards, forming a sell signal. If current trend maintains, it is recommended to open sell positions with the targets of 1.3440 and 1.3395.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed steeply down. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (1.6348). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.6253.



GBP/USD, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged above the cloud, indicating the reversal of the trend. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has entered the cloud, borders of which are support (1.6216) and resistance (1.6361) levels.



Key levels
Support levels: 1.6253, 1.6216.
Resistance levels: 1.6348, 1.6361.

Trading tips
On the both charts we can see the continuation of the downward trend. The targets for the sell positions are 1.6253 and 1.6216.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
Following the lows at the level of 105.45, the Japanese Yen started to strengthen against the American dollar. The USD has lost about 500 points and the USD/JPY rate is approaching psychologically important resistance level of 100.0. If this level is broken down, the pair will soar up to the levels of 98.00 and 96.00.
According to economists there are no reasons, which could have caused the fall in the USD against the Yen and market is experiencing minor correction. Moreover, monetary policies in these countries are completely opposite: US fed is reducing quantitative easing programs, while Central Bank of Japan, on the contrary, injects cheap liquidity in order to overcome inflation.
It is worth noting that first positive results are evident: unemployment rate in Japan fell to 3.7%, number of new jobs increased by 2.8%. Sales of new cars have also risen by 27.5% versus previous year. However, due to the rise of sales tax from 5% to 8% car dealers think that this year’s sales are going to fall.

Support and resistance
The nearest support level is psychologically important level of 100.00. Support level is the bottom limit of the trading channel of 101.95.

Trading tips
Short positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 100.00 with stop-loss at 100.50 and a target of 98.20.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
At the beginning of the week the pair XAU/USD went up due to the decline in the USD and the fall in the American stock market, which has lost about 3% over a the last few sessions. Experts believe that such rapid decline is associated with the decision of the US Fed to continue reduction of stimulus programs, as well as with the weak macro-economic statistics from China and the USA, which makes gold attractive for investment of free capital.
ADP’s forecast of the US employment rate will be released today; it is expected that number of jobs in the US private sector will fall to 180 thousand. Negative data on the US labour market will help the pair XAU/USD rise up to 1300.00. Main participants in the market of precious metals are Asian countries and in particular China; therefore, in the long-term the price of gold will be determined by the demand in these countries.


Support and resistance
Gold continues to trade above the moving average with the period 200, confirming uptrend. Important resistance level is the upper limit of the trading channel (1277.00). If this level is broken down the price may go up to the level of 1300.00. Support level is the moving average with the period 200 (1233.00).

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1277.00 with stop-loss at 1268.00 and a target of 1298.00.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Today, the pair EUR/USD consolidates near the level of 1.3510, which followed after rapid fall last week. The American dollar is rising amid positive US statistics. According to US Bureau of the Budgets the budget of the country will fall to the lowest level this year over the past seven years. Deficit this year will reduce to 3%, although previous forecast showed the value of 3.4%. Estimated growth of American economy in 2014 will be 2.7%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing. Stochastic also gives a sell signal; however the lines of indicator are in the oversold zone. Resistance levels are Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% (1.3540), 38.2% (1.3575) and 50% (1.3610). Support levels are the local highs of 1.3493, 1.3476 and 1.3398.

Trading tips
It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3540 with the target of 1.3610; however “bearish” trend is more likely. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3493 with the target of 1.3420.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: technical analysis

Current trend
At the end of last week the price of metal closely approached the level of 19 USD per troy ounce. “Bears” repeatedly tries to break down this level but with no success. At the beginning of this week, silver sharply rose in price reaching the level of 20.20. Most indicators have confirmed trend reversal. MACD has moved to the positive zone, the signal line is inside histogram and is directed upwards. Both line of Stochastic are in the middle zone and are rising. Moving average lines started to realign and in the near future can form a strong buy signal.


Support and resistance
The nearest support level is 19.85, which is also a key level for the “bears”. The main target of the “bulls” is 20.20, which will be followed by the levels of 20.40, 20.50 and 20.60.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 19.80. Buy orders can be places above the level of 20.20. However, do not forget about protective orders.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the USD puts pressure on the weak Pound

Current trend
On Wednesday negative British PMI in the service sector was released: the index fell by 0.5 points. Demand for the Pound decreased and the pair consolidated near strong support level at the local lows of 1.6250. However, weak data on the US labour market prevented the USD from consolidating advantage.
The Bank of England will make decision on interest rate and on volume of asset purchase program. American data on number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and trade balance will also be released. It is likely that British data will not add volatility in the pair, while positive US labour market statistics can strengthen American currency. In addition, the data on industrial output and production in manufacturing industry will become known on Friday. The indices are expected to be unfavourable. Following brief correction, the pair will continue to go down rapidly, similar to downward movement in August 2011.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.6200, 1.6100, 1.5920, 1.5860 and 1.5600.
Resistance levels: 1.6330, 1.6450, 1.6540, 1.6600 and 1.6660.


Trading tips
It is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at 1.6100-1.5920. Pending orders to sell can be placed from the level of 1.6450 with the target of 1.6100.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: European and US news will increase market volatility

Current trend
On Thursday the pair EUR/USD traded with high volatility. First, Euro slightly went down amid poor data on German factory orders. Later ECB announced that interest rate would remain at the previous level and Mario Draghi highlighted that there was no risk of deflation. The pair sharply went up and reached the level of 1.3620. At the same time US data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was released: the number has decreased; however the pair has hardly responded to the news.
Today, favourable trade and payment balances in Germany have supported European currency. However the most important news is ahead: German industrial output for December will become known, as well as US Non-Farm Payrolls. If German index goes down, Euro is likely to decline against the USD. Strong data on the US labour market will put additional pressure on the pair and EUR/USD will rapidly go down.

Support and resistance
Daily chart clearly shows downward channel. In the medium-term the pair will continue to decline to the key resistance level of 1.3300.
Support levels: 1.3470, 1.3400, 1.3300 and 1.3175.
Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830.

Trading tips
It is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.3310.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is trying to consolidate below it. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9015. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is going to be a support level at 0.8948.



USD/CHF, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above within the cloud. Chinkou Span is crossing the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. The pair wasn’t able to consolidate above the cloud and returned within its borders. Senkou Span B line is the closest resistance level at 0.9024. The lower border of the cloud becomes a support level at 0.8942.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.9048, 0.8942.
Resistance levels: 0.9015, 0.9024.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair is consolidating below the cloud, the target for the short positions is 0.8948. On the daily chart the pair is trading within the cloud. Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 0.9024.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair USD/CAD had reached the lows of 1.0967 and started to rise gradually. Experts believe that high oil price and gradual recovery of the US economy have had positive impact on the CAD. The pair is also supported by Canadian macro-economic statistics, showing that unemployment rate fell by 0.2%, exceeding the forecast. In addition, volume of tax revenues is increasing: this index has risen by 9.3% on annual basis.
This week, Canadian authorities are planning to approve budget for the next 2 years. The main objective is to reduce trade balance deficit and reach surplus level. According to economists this goal is feasible, since Canadian economy has weathered the crisis better than other countries, holding stable position. It is assumed that country’s GDP in 2014 shall grow by 2.2%.

Support and resistance
Support and resistance levels are the bottom (1.0967) and the top (1.1224) limits of the channel respectively.

Trading tips
It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.0967 with protective orders at 1.1029 and a target of 1.0835.




Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies