LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the USD will grow in Q1 2014

Current trend

Upcoming holiday affects volatility in the pair: GBP/USD has calmed down, trading in the narrow range of 1.6330-1.6380. Market was flat also because of the lack of important economic news from the UK and US. However, the data on mortgage lending of the Bank of England will become known as well as number of orders for durable goods in the US. At the end of the week American data on initial claims for unemployment benefits will become known. Given acceleration of economic growth rate in the USA, statistics on the labour market can support the USD. However, we should not undervalue British currency: over the last 6 months British economy has improved noteworthily.

Support and resistance /b]

It is expected that in the medium-term the USD rate will grow due to positive macro-economic statistics. The pair will decline to Fibonacci line 38.2 % (1.5860) with long corrections at support levels.

Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100, 1.5920 and 1.5860.
Resistance levels: 1.6400, 1.6460 and 1.6540.

[b]Trading tips

In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking in the range of 1.5920-1.5860.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below under the cloud, forming trend reversal pattern — Golden Cross. However, the upward impetus hasn’t been enough and the price dropped under the red line again. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen (0.8931) and Kijun-sen (0.8889) lines have become resistance and support levels respectively.



AUD/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After small correction the pair is falling again. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.8951. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8751.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.8889, 0.8751.
Resistance levels: 0.8931, 0.8951.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the levels: Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen. On the daily chart the Bearish trend is still strong. Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.8889 with targets around 0.8751.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The currency pair EUR/USD has been trading in the narrow range of 1.3700-1.3663 during Christmas holidays in Europe and America. Nevertheless, today, a weekly report on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US will be released. According to forecasts, this index will drop for the first time in December and will reach the level of 346 thousand, which will strengthen the national currency.

Support and resistance

In the near future the price is likely to grow up to the upper limit of the range (1.3700); after that the pair may experience correction to the levels of 1.3678 and 1.3663, or even up to 1.3648 (middle line of Bollinger bands). On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm possibility of ascending movement; the price chart cannot break down the middle line of Bollinger bands, which is a support line. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines are rising.

Resistance levels: 1.3700 and 1.3715.
Support levels: 1.3678, 1.3663 and 1.3648.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions with profit taking near 1.3700, at the same level pending sell orders can be also opened.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

Following extended period of downtrend, the pair has ceased its decline. At the beginning of the month the pair reached summer highs at the level of 19.00. This is the key level at the moment, which prevents further decline in the pair. Currently, the pair is trading in the narrow range of 19.20-20.20. Technical indicators show continuation of the sideways movement. Stochastic is slightly above the middle line and is directed sideways. All three moving average lines also indicate flat.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels are 19.50, 19.80, 20.00 and 20.20.Support levels are 19.15 and 18.90, the latter one is the main target of the “bears”.

Trading tips

Short positions are recommended below the level of 18.90. Limit sell orders can be placed at the level of 20.50 with the target of 19.00.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed upwards. The pair has broken through the sideways channel and is still growing. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (1.6413). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.6564.



GBP/USD, H4, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After small correction the pair has returned to the upward movement. Tenkan-sen line remains the closest support level at 1.6350. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.6700.



Key levels

Support levels: 1.6350, 1.6413.
Resistance levels: 1.6564, 1.6700.

Trading tips

Both charts confirm the continuation of the Bullish trend. The targets for the long positions are 1.6564 and 1.6700.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

At the beginning of the trading week the pair demonstrated uptrend in the sideways channel. However, taking into account Christmas holidays and lack of macro-economic data, we should not expect changes in the exchange rate of the pair. It such case it makes sense to rely on the technical indicators.
On the four-hour chart indicators give similar signals, showing further sideways movement. Bollinger bands are horizontal; MACD histogram and the signal line are approaching zero line.

Support and resistance /b]

Resistance levels are 1.0654 and 1.0680. Support levels 1.0620 and 1.0580.

[b]Trading tips

Based on technical indicator it is advisable to open sell positions as part of the corrective movement from resistance levels of 1.0654 and 1.0680 with the targets of 1.0620 and 1.0580.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have almost merged under the cloud. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. Last week the pair brake down the cloud, but today it has returned within the cloud’s borders, which become support (0.8916) and resistance(0.8941) levels



USD/CHF, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span is below the price chart; current cloud is still descending. After a long fall the pair has been corrected above Tenkan-sen line (0.8900), which has become a support level now. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 0.8975.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.8916, 0.8900.
Resistance levels: 0.8941, 0.8915.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the cloud borders. Daily chart shows us a correction of the descending movement, short positions can be opened below the level of 0.8900.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 30 Dec 2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZcQCeldn1w&list=PL0AkDoT530vyjQ_utOoMufN3NfndBfCqg&index=29[/youtube]

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: review

Current trend
Last week crude oil Brent has risen up to the level of 112.59 and after that corrected downwards. Support level was at the level 110.86. Currently investors expect that escalation of conflict in Southern Sudan, which exports about 220 thousand barrels of oil a day, will keep oil prices at a sustainable level. Last week, rebels in the Southern Sudan seized some oil wells and oil workers have been evacuated. In Libya oil production fell up to 230 thousand barrels per day against previous 1.6 million barrels per day. Strikes of the workers have led to the halt of several terminals at the end of July. Strikes in some of oil refineries in France also cause deficit and interruption of oil supplies to the world markets.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is yesterday’s highs of 112.59, next after it will be the level of 112.95. Support levels are Fibonacci retracement 50% (110.25) and 61.8% (109.70).

Trading tips
It is likely that Brent will continue to trade in the narrow channel at the boundary of which it is advisable to place limit sell orders at the level of 112.59 and limit buy orders at the level of 110.86.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
After Christmas holidays the pair EUR/USD has started to fall. Since the beginning of the year Euro has lost more than 200 points. The pair is under pressure of US Dollar strengthening. Today we anticipate fundamental data from USA: Non-manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders are going to be published. According to the forecasts, the indicators may rise and make EUR/USD fall even lower.

Support and resistance
On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm the possibility of the fall. Bollinger bands are directed downwards, MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Support levels are 1.3580, 1354.40 and 1.3510. The pair will meet resistance at 1.3670, 1.3705 and 1.3740.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open short positions at current price with targets at 1.3540 and 1.3510.



Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies