Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 21. They Didn't Even Agree to Negotiate



The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Monday, especially in the first half of the day, despite the geopolitical backdrop. This backdrop, it must be said, remains filled with reports that do not indicate a quick end to the war in the Middle East. Over the past two weeks, markets have regained hope following the ceasefire between Iran and the US. However, the ceasefire was initially agreed upon as temporary.

Perhaps many traders thought that great things start small, and if the parties actually sat down at the negotiating table, an agreement would eventually be reached. However, facts tell a completely different story. To begin with, the Strait of Hormuz remained open for less than one day after Trump's statements. Then Tehran discovered with surprise that Iranian ports remained blocked by the US Navy and reintroduced its blockade.

It's unclear who did not understand this situation. Initially, Tehran stated that it was lifting the blockade because Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon. However, it later became clear that Tehran was also expecting the lifting of the American blockade, even though this had not been mentioned beforehand. This marks the first case where it is no longer Trump making empty promises or issuing false statements, but Iran itself not understanding what it wants, what was agreed upon, and under what conditions to proceed.

However, traders, in principle, do not care who understood whom this time. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the second round of negotiations, which was supposed to take place first on Saturday, then Sunday, and finally Monday, never occurred. In addition, the US fleet fired upon several Iranian vessels in the Persian Gulf, and Iran fired upon several foreign vessels attempting to leave the Gulf.

So what is the outcome? The Strait is closed, the war continues, there are no negotiations, and the world is seriously beginning to search for alternative sources of oil and gas supplies, not expecting a quick end to the conflict in the Middle East. So why didn't the US dollar show growth on Monday? We have already mentioned in recent weeks that the geopolitical factor has an expiration date. It seems that the conflict in the Middle East has an expiration date of approximately two months.

Thus, the market initially priced in the war itself, then the temporary ceasefire, and now all events are accounted for. Of course, the situation may change in either direction, but we believe that from now on, the influence of geopolitics will be much less than before. Even Brent oil prices declined slightly on Monday, not reacting to the failure of negotiations or the new blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical standpoint, the situation is currently quite complex. On the one hand, the dollar still has no reason to show growth other than geopolitical ones. But the geopolitical factor will likely no longer influence currency traders' mood as strongly as it did before. On the other hand, new escalations in the conflict could still provoke a couple of rounds of dollar growth, and after two weeks of rising, the EUR/USD pair needs correction

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 21 is 60 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1725 and 1.1845 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, signaling a bearish trend.

However, in reality, the upward trend of 2025 may resume. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a downward pullback. A "bullish" divergence indicates a renewal of the upward trend. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1780 S2 – 1.1719 S3 – 1.1658 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1841 R2 – 1.1902 R3 – 1.1963

Trading Recommendations:



The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement amid a weakening geopolitical influence on market sentiment. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, so in the long term, we still expect the pair to grow. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1597 based on technical grounds.

Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902. The market is gradually moving away from the geopolitical factor, and the dollar is losing its only growth driver.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4tpDYYU

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. April 22. Who Is Interested in the Statistics Now?



The GBP/USD currency pair traded extremely calmly on Tuesday, despite the release of several important and resonant reports from the UK. First, let's start with the unemployment report, which unexpectedly fell from 5.2% to 4.9%, below forecasts of 5.2%. Such a decrease in one of the main macroeconomic indicators should have triggered a rise in the British currency. And it would have, if it weren't for one "but"—the market has been ignoring the macroeconomic backdrop for two months now.

There is no need to search for a "spoonful of tar" in the report itself. This is far from the first time that the market has shown no reaction to crucial data. If the report was not as strong as it appears at first glance, the pound should have dropped immediately following the publication. If the report was indeed good, the British currency should have risen. However, we saw neither of these outcomes, and the US dollar's moderate growth is purely corrective. The GBP/USD pair had also risen for two consecutive weeks, so a slight pullback is not detrimental.

Although the influence of geopolitics is waning, the market is still not rushing to respond to standard fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. Upcoming meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are approaching, and the British central bank seemed much more "hawkish" a month ago than its American counterpart. Nevertheless, the dollar continued to rise, driven solely by geopolitical factors. Currently, the market is in limbo, as it is unclear whether a new round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington will take place this week. JD Vance may have already flown to Islamabad, but what stops Iran from once again refusing to meet? Moreover, various reports suggest that there is no consensus in Tehran regarding negotiations with the US. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps insists on a hardline stance: no negotiations until Washington unblocks Iranian ports. Meanwhile, the new supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, agrees to meet to resolve the conflict as quickly as possible.

The confusion over who is really in charge and making decisions in the country also remains unclear. As for the negotiations themselves, we remain quite skeptical. We still do not understand what the parties are supposed to negotiate when no one is willing to compromise on the most important points. The only chance for the world is the signing of a nuclear deal akin to the one that existed between the countries ten years ago. Specifically, representatives from international organizations would be allowed access to Iran's nuclear facilities to establish control over enriched uranium. However, has Tehran agreed to a new nuclear deal when Donald Trump once unilaterally withdrew from a similar agreement? In Tehran's view, any arrangement with the US guarantees nothing.



The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 67 pips, which is considered "average." On Wednesday, April 22, we expect the pair to trade within a range between 1.3434 and 1.3568. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, signaling a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and has formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a potential downward pullback.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3QnkrKe

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 23. Neither Fish nor Fowl



The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility and a slight downward corrective bias on Wednesday. Traders continue to ignore the macroeconomic backdrop. Even if there is a market reaction to individual reports, it is extremely difficult to distinguish it from technical movements. Over the weekend, we discussed that the market is in a situation where a downward correction is needed.

This downward correction we have observed for the fourth consecutive day. Where the price will be in a week is known only to God. The situation that developed over the weekend is as paradoxical as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. What have we seen? The pair has declined for two months due to geopolitical tensions. This means that the negative scenario for events in the Middle East has already played out. Check one box. Next, we observed a two-week rise against the backdrop of a temporary truce between Iran and the US and hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict.

This means that the positive scenario has also played out. Check another box. What's next? For a new, powerful rise of the U.S. dollar, a significant escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is required. In simple terms, the situation needs to become much worse than it was a month ago. What might that entail? It seems that only a renewal of full-scale war involving all participants and the closure of the Bab-al-Mandab Strait would suffice. However, neither Trump nor Tehran has a particular desire to return to war. The situation with Tehran is clear. Iran did not start this war, and therefore does not want to continue it. However, Tehran does not intend to sign Trump's "set of peace ultimatums." Iran wants to end the war, but on fair terms, which Trump cannot propose to his opponent.

Simultaneously, the U.S. president also wants to end the war, as discontent among American consumers and voters continues to grow. The war negatively impacts the U.S. economy, and Trump may forget about a reduction in key interest rates by the Federal Reserve for a long time. Additionally, in November, Trump's party may lose elections in both chambers of Congress. Thus, the White House leader himself wants to resolve matters in the Middle East as quickly as possible, but how can he do so if Iran is unwilling to accept Trump's ultimatum? Start a new chapter of war? What would that achieve when Iran has already shown and proven to the world that it is ready to fight as long as necessary?

This leads to a situation in which both sides want to end the war, but one demands a series of conditions be met, while the other holds a set of trump cards that allow it to reject foreign ultimatums. The war is on pause, and this is the best option available at the moment. The absence of new escalations, the extension of the temporary truce, and no worsening of the situation with oil and gas in the Middle East is already a positive outcome. The EUR/USD pair is simply undergoing a typical technical correction at this time.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 23 is 68 pips and is categorized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1646 and 1.1782 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, the upward trend of 2025 could resume.

The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1719 S2 – 1.1658 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1780 R2 – 1.1841 R3 – 1.1902 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement amid the weakening influence of geopolitics on market sentiment.

The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; thus, we still expect long-term growth in the pair. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1646 on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902. The market is gradually distancing itself from the impact of geopolitical factors, while the dollar loses its only driver for growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4cLYvA5

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 24. The Pound Sterling Outpaces the Euro



The EUR/USD currency pair continued its modest decline on Thursday, and in this article, we will analyze why the euro is falling while the pound is not. Overall, we can say that both the pound and the euro remain relatively stable—not just in the short term (the last two months), but also in the long term. Switching to the daily timeframe shows that the U.S. dollar has only managed another correction.

Importantly, the EUR/USD pair has been unable to drop below 1.1440 during any correction over the past nine months, which marks the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Thus, there is no talk of a long-term downward trend. Yes, we have observed sideways movement for the last nine months (with rare exceptions), but a flat trend can persist indefinitely. It is worth reminding traders that trending movements are sharp and fast, while flat trends are slow and weak. As mentioned over the weekend, we anticipated a corrective decline for both the euro and the pound.

The euro is indeed falling, but the British pound is holding steady. Why? In our view, the issue lies in energy and inflation. First and foremost, it should be remembered that the UK is far less dependent on external energy resource supplies than the European Union. This means that London has felt much more confident than Brussels over the past two months. Additionally, the recent inflation data in the UK shows an increase of only 0.3% in March, while in the eurozone it was 0.7%. Thus, the potential energy crisis triggered by Donald Trump has more serious consequences for the European economy than for the British one. Furthermore, it is important to note that both pairs are currently influenced by technical factors.

Geopolitics has faded into the background, allowing both the euro and the pound to recover in recent weeks. Additionally, there have been no significant geopolitical news items this week. The constant flow of alternating messages about the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the similar flow regarding negotiations in Pakistan are data that traders no longer react to. What is the point if there are up to ten contradictory messages coming in a single day? The situation in the Middle East may heat up again, and that is a fact.

Therefore, the necessity for a correction is somewhat supported by the current geopolitical situation. However, there have been no significant changes in the positions of the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days. Oil prices remain high, the Strait remains closed, and Tehran and Washington are still unable to reach any agreements, with Donald Trump continuing to exert any possible pressure on Iran. Thus, we believe that the EUR/USD pair will continue to correct, but without serious negative news from the Middle East, the decline will not last long. The dollar has lost its sole support factor.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 24 is 64 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1640 and 1.1768 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, there could actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4mLh5g6

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 27. Negotiations Have Stalled



The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Friday, April 24, as it had been throughout the past week. The average volatility over the last five trading days has dropped to 58 pips. This is not particularly low, but it is not high either. As shown in the chart, both volatility and market activity are decreasing. What might this be related to? Certainly, it is tied to geopolitics. It's worth noting that virtually every week, there are enough macroeconomic and fundamental events that could stimulate traders to trade more actively.

However, the market remains focused on geopolitics. As there have been no significant "turning points" in this area recently, the market has "slowed down" and is waiting for events, not merely news. Recent news over the past week, or even two, has become boring. Almost every few hours, there are new reports that negotiations with Iran may resume, that they are set to happen any minute now, that a deal is nearly agreed upon, etc. In the coming hours, contradictory statements arise, leaving the market at a standstill.

Therefore, traders (and we too) have grown weary of reacting to or even analyzing the flow of false and unverified information. Practically every reputable news agency feels obliged to announce that, according to some insider information, "something will happen soon." The fact that none of these insider predictions have materialized doesn't seem to trouble anyone. Thus, like many other experts, we advise focusing on actions rather than words. Actions indicate that there have been no movements in negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

The second round of talks did not take place this past weekend, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi's visit to Pakistan is unrelated to a desire to meet with the American delegation. As we enter the new week, the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop will be abundant, but it is far from certain that the market will not continue to ignore much of the economic information. Given the situation, there are three central bank meetings, but all three central banks may adopt a wait-and-see approach amid escalating uncertainty over the Middle East and energy prices. A significant series of macroeconomic data? Yes, these are important events, but the market has ignored substantial portions of important macroeconomic information over the last two months.

Therefore, even if there are no geopolitical events this week, it does not mean the market will shift its focus back to fundamentals and macroeconomics. Traders may react to the most critical events, but if volatility remains in the 50-60-pip range, it is unlikely to delight anyone. The EUR/USD pair may continue to correct, as the scenario involving a ceasefire and negotiations has already been priced in. Nonetheless, we still expect growth only from the euro in the medium term.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of April 27 is 58 pips, which is considered "average." We anticipate the pair moving between 1.1664 and 1.1780 on Monday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a bearish trend. However, there could actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/49bBPId

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 28. The Market is Tired of the Dollar



The EUR/USD currency pair started the new week with an upward movement, although there were no particular reasons for traders to buy the pair. It is worth noting that a vast number of events and news occur in the world every day, but why should they matter to currency traders if they have no impact on the exchange rate of the dollar or the euro? For example, over the weekend, there was already a second "attempt" on Donald Trump. In the first instance, the shooter expertly hit the U.S. president in the ear, yet following that incident, no one saw Trump with any injuries or damage to his hearing apparatus. It's hard to imagine what kind of person could hit a target in the ear from several hundred meters away with a sniper rifle. In the second instance (over the weekend), an unknown assailant broke into the White House and opened fire on the nearest security officer. Unlike the first instance, they only hit the bulletproof vest, causing no injuries to the security personnel. It should be noted that Trump was in the White House at the time of the event, but the shooter would have had to navigate through several dozen rooms and encounter hundreds of guards along the way.

Trump naturally labeled this event as an "attempt on his modest persona," but, realistically, if Trump's motorcade were to travel down one of the streets of Washington, and an assailant several blocks away opened fire, that too could be considered an attempt on his life. Thus, we pay little attention to such events, just as we do to the continuous stream of geopolitical news pouring in from the Middle East, which holds no real meaning or significance. For instance, what is the purpose of constant, daily reports on whether negotiations between Iran and the US are either set to resume or not? The media has been publishing various insider insights and secret information for a week, but representatives from Tehran and Washington have yet to meet, and Iran continues to hold firm: no negotiations until the Americans lift the blockade on Iranian ports.

Therefore, the matter is settled—there will be no negotiations in the near future. Against the backdrop of the absence of further movement toward de-escalation of the conflict and peace in the Middle East, oil prices are rising again, and the global economy is edging toward recession. It is essential to understand that oil shortages are not the worst scenario. The most concerning situation is the combination of oil shortages and rising prices. If oil prices are increasing, it means that all goods and services will become more expensive in one way or another. Rising prices for all goods and services do not mean that consumers will simply pay more; rather, they will likely buy and spend less. If they buy and spend less, industrial production will decline, import and export volumes will drop, and economic and business activity will wane, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth. This is a widespread problem at present.



The geopolitical factor has receded into the background, while the long-term upward trend remains relevant. Thus, nothing prevents the euro from continuing its growth. The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 28 is 59 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1672 and 1.1790 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, there may actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a potential downward pullback.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4eeb0GW

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on April 29? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:



There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but important economic information will finally begin to come to the market. Today, we advise paying attention to durable goods orders in the U.S. and to inflation in Germany. The market may well ignore both reports, as they do not hold "super-significant" status, and for the past two months, traders have paid little attention to even important reports.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:



Among the fundamental events, the FOMC meeting stands out, as it will be the last under Jerome Powell's tenure as chairman. No significant decisions are expected, as the market is confident that the key rate will remain unchanged. At the press conference, Powell will likely maintain a wait-and-see stance, and his rhetoric is unlikely to change significantly from previous speeches. Thus, even at the FOMC meeting, the market's reaction may be quite weak and will not significantly impact the technical picture for either currency pair.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to astonish with its level of uncertainty, preventing central banks from rushing into important monetary policy decisions. The war in the Middle East may resume if a deal between Iran and the U.S. is not signed. A deal cannot be signed if Iran does not even agree to a second round of negotiations. Meanwhile, the ceasefire continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

General Conclusions: On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may exhibit high volatility in the evening, but during the day, technical factors will again prevail. The euro can be traded today in the ranges of 1.1655-1.1666 and 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3476-1.3489. The correction for both currency pairs may continue, but the market may pay attention to today's FOMC meeting, which could provoke further movements.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: hhttps://ifxpr.com/4vTTjCZ

[IFX Bella]

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. Weekly Preview: The Dollar Still Has No Chance



The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited signs last week that it is ready to resume its upward trend. Reasons for the rise of the euro and the fall of the dollar are not necessary. However, they do exist. Let's begin by noting that the market continues to ignore the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop. The pinnacle of this disregard was the Friday Nonfarm Payrolls report, which, for once, showed a value above forecasts, but the US dollar did not appreciate at all. Naturally, some experts immediately explained this phenomenon by the report's negative structure. We would like to remind you that the market is not obligated to react to every report or news, nor to trade this particular piece of news exclusively as desired by certain traders. The most important thing is to understand that, currently, macroeconomics plays almost no role, and to honestly acknowledge this rather than trying to find a spoonful of tar in a barrel of honey or vice versa. The geopolitical factor also continues to weaken its influence on the currency market. The ceasefire between Iran and the US has lasted for a whole month and, despite the lack of results in the negotiations, the absence of personal meetings between the Iranian and American delegations, as well as a complete lack of information on the progress of negotiations and two violations of the ceasefire just last week, the war in the Middle East is not reigniting with new force, thus leading the market to maintain an optimistic outlook for the future. To be precise, the market does not understand why it should now buy the problematic dollar, which is affected by Donald Trump, especially since the geopolitical factor no longer supports it. At this point, it is essential to recall the fundamentals and macroeconomics that the market is ignoring. However, it ignores local events while the overall global fundamental background remains so evident that there is no question about what to do with the dollar. We have been saying for over a year that the dollar will continue to fall. Of course, we are not Nostradamus and cannot know Trump's plans. In February and March of this year, the US currency would likely have continued its decline peacefully if Trump had not started the war with Iran. Thus, the EUR/USD pair does correct in the long term from time to time. However, this does not affect the global trend; the economy, monetary policy, the investment sector, the White House's trade policy, and Trump's stance towards the national currency—all of these factors support everyone except the dollar. Now, we need to deal with the technicals. On the 4-hour timeframe, we observe occasional corrections and even entire trends, but the situation on higher timeframes (daily, weekly) is clear-cut. Therefore, we continue to expect only the strengthening of the European currency, regardless of local macroeconomic reports and fundamental events. This week, by the way, there is really nothing noteworthy in the Eurozone. There will be two more speeches by Christine Lagarde, and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP will be published. Nothing particularly interesting, considering that the market is fully aware of the European Central Bank's position on monetary policy.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4v0b8iv