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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – July 17: U.S. Inflation Will Only Accelerate



The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than it had on Tuesday, remaining relatively stable until the evening. There were no major fundamental or macroeconomic events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. throughout the day. We believe that even the U.S. inflation report published on Tuesday can no longer be considered highly significant under current conditions. More precisely, it remains important, but its influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is no longer as significant as it once was. The Fed remains firm in its stance: first, it needs to understand how the finalized tariffs will affect key macroeconomic indicators, then it will make a decision on the key interest rate. Over the past three months, Jerome Powell has seemed to do little else besides publicly discuss inflation. The Fed Chair has repeatedly warned that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is bound to rise if import prices increase by 20–30–40%. Especially when it comes to commodities and metals, which cannot be replaced as easily as consumer goods, now that June has arrived, we are indeed witnessing a rise in inflation. The CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7% in June. This may not seem like a dramatic jump, but let us highlight two important points. First, Trump's tariffs began to influence inflation in June because, prior to that, American businesses had stockpiled goods at old prices for several months ahead and had neither raised prices nor placed new foreign orders. Therefore, the rise in June inflation is just the beginning. Second, on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, which translates to an annualized rate of 3.6%. Powell and his colleagues suggest that the inflationary shock might be short-lived and that consumer prices may "stabilize" once final tariff rates are set. But what kind of stabilization can we expect when Donald Trump has signed only 3 out of 75 trade agreements, has prepared new tariff hikes for 24 countries starting August 1, and introduced 50% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper? This means that average U.S. import tariffs will rise even further from August 1, and even those will not be final. So, if inflation is already acceler

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 21, 2025



The euro continues to trade sideways within the range of 1.1535–1.1692, staying between the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue).

The Marlin oscillator is slowly declining in negative territory, indicating a higher likelihood of the price breaking below the support level once the sideways movement ends. In that case, the target would be 1.1420. Upward movement is hindered by two resistance levels: 1.1692 and 1.1750.

On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD lines. There were false breakouts above the balance line, marked by upper candle wicks, indicating weak or misleading bullish attempts. The Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory. Visually, the price may shift into a downward trajectory if it drops to around 1.1600. The price is expected to move toward the lower boundary of the sideways range.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 28: The Ideal, Strong Euro



EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again traded with low volatility but demonstrated nearly perfect technical behavior. There was little news during the day, with the only noteworthy report being on durable goods orders, which gave mixed signals. On one hand, the actual figure was better than the forecast. On the other hand, the number of orders in June dropped by 9.3%, which is quite significant. Thus, this report cannot be considered positive. Traders themselves were unsure how to interpret the data. After its release, the pair became volatile, but it was the rebound from the critical line — not the macroeconomic data — that held key significance for the dollar. From a technical perspective, the local uptrend remains in place. Last week, the price saw a slight downward correction, but forming a proper trend line or channel is still not possible — the second extremum is missing. The price failed to consolidate below the critical line, so we expect a new wave of euro growth on Monday. On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday produced two nearly perfect trading signals. First, the price bounced precisely from the 1.1750–1.1760 zone, then dropped to the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, and rebounded from that line with a small deviation (2 points), eventually returning t



COT Report

The latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report is dated July 22. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders was bullish for a long time. Bears barely took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office as President of the U.S., the dollar has only declined. While we can't say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, current global developments suggest this scenario is likely. We still see no fundamental factors supporting the euro, but one strong factor remains weighing on the U.S. dollar. The global downtrend remains intact, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 16 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may begin to rise — but when will that happen? The position of the red and blue lines in the indicator continues to show a bullish trend. During the last reporting week, long positions held by the "Non-commercial" group increased by 6,200, while shorts increased by 8,900. Therefore, the net position decreased by 1,700 contracts — a negligible change.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 30, 2025



On Tuesday, the euro declined by 42 pips. The downward movement paused at the 55-day moving average (MA55). Now, the test of the target support at 1.1495 — if the market decides to react to new guidance from the FOMC — is likely to occur via a sharp breakout, as it would need to overcome technical supports. If that happens, the next target would be 1.1380.

The current situation on the daily chart is bearish: the price is holding below the indicator lines, the MACD line has turned downward, and the Marlin oscillator is declining in the negative zone. The only question is: how strong will the FOMC signal be regarding a possible rate cut in September? We believe it won't be particularly strong — possibly just one rate cut before the end of the year, without further changes in December. This is due to inflation, which has started to rise again. Additionally, we observe the Federal Reserve's resistance to market-driven signals for rate cuts, particularly in relation to the yield curve. The FOMC is pursuing a deeper, more strategic agenda.

On the H4 chart, the picture is also fully bearish: the price is declining below downward-sloping indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has made a mild correction — a release of pressure to allow for a smoother continuation of the decline. However, if the price breaks above the MACD line (1.1636), an attack on the daily MACD line at 1.1770 becomes possible. But that would be an alternative scenario. Laurie Bailey

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 4, 2025



The euro's 170-pip rally on Friday represented a 50% correction from the extremes observed between July 24 and August 1. While the technical picture has noticeably shifted, the core medium-term bearish scenario for the European currency remains intact.

We believe the correction is now complete, and the EUR/USD pair will attempt to reach the target support level at 1.1266, with pullbacks expected from intermediate levels. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line, but for this move to be classified as a false breakout, a return below this line must occur.

We believe the correction is now complete, and the EUR/USD pair will attempt to reach the target support level at 1.1266, with pullbacks expected from intermediate levels. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line, but for this move to be classified as a false breakout, a return below this line must occur.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 5, 2025




The euro's trading range on Monday was 47 pips, and the day closed with a black (bearish) candlestick. The price failed to make a solid breakout above the balance indicator line. As expected, the market paused Friday's sharp movement.

Today, the euro may start moving in the opposite direction — downward — supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. business activity data and weak numbers from the eurozone. The eurozone services PMI for July is expected to rise from 50.5 to 51.2, but the composite PMI may decline from 52.0 to 51.0. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI is expected to increase from 50.8 to 51.5, and the composite PMI forecast stands at 54.6 versus the previous 52.9. The key task for the euro today is to close below yesterday's low. The target at 1.1495 also looks attractive. The Marlin oscillator has halted its upward movement and is now poised to decline.

On the H4 chart, the price is consolidating above the MACD line (1.1547). The Marlin oscillator is not yet showing any leading signals. The market is likely to continue sideways until the release of macroeconomic data. However, the longer the price stays sideways above the MACD line, the higher the probability of an upward spike. A firm move below 1.1547 would prepare the euro for a test of the 1.1495 level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – August 7: Trump Launches a New Round of Trade War Escalation



The EUR/USD currency pair traded with very low volatility for most of Wednesday once again. There are indeed very few macroeconomic events this week, but at the same time, it cannot be said that the news background is absent. We still believe that the events and reports from last week are enough for the dollar to continue declining for about another week. In addition to last week's events, we should also highlight some "fresh news." Over the past few days, Donald Trump has announced the introduction of new tariffs. First, they will concern semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. There is nothing new in this announcement, as last month the U.S. president repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on these categories of goods. This week, he merely confirmed his intentions, stating that medications should be produced in the United States. And to encourage domestic production, all foreign drugs will be subject to tariffs—starting small but rising to as much as 250% in a year and a half to two years. Second, Trump is already moving into a second or even third round. Initially, he introduced individual tariffs against half the countries in the world. Then sector-specific tariffs followed (on cars, copper, steel, and aluminum, for example). Now, Trump is planning to implement "sanction tariffs." What does that mean? It means that if any country refuses to follow Trump's orders, it will face additional tariffs. For instance, India purchases oil from Russia and is perplexed by Washington's prohibition. The reason is that Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine and believes the financial inflows to the Russian budget from oil and gas exports must be limited. Thus, to end the war, all countries must stop buying Russian energy. To force this, Trump came up with "sanction tariffs" that will apply to all imports from such countries (India, in this case) to the U.S. until they stop buying Russian oil and gas—or until the war in Ukraine ends. And these tariffs will be very high.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 11, 2025

The euro has settled even more firmly at the 1.1632 support level. The longer it consolidates there, the more balanced the probabilities of growth and decline will become. However, two factors are influencing this neutral structure and subtly increasing the chances for the bears: Fibonacci time line No. 8, which gets closer with each candlestick, and the Marlin oscillator, which, amid sideways price movement, will remain in negative territory.

In this situation, either on August 15 or August 18, the euro could break down toward the nearest target at 1.1495 and then further to 1.1392. For an upward move to develop, the price must break above the August 7 high at 1.1699 (with the target at 1.1777 — the MACD line), while for a downward move, it must firmly consolidate below 1.1632.

On the four-hour chart, the price has formed a triangle — a trend continuation pattern — but ongoing consolidation could easily turn it into a typical range. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has approached the zero line, and in the event of sideways price movement, it is likely (especially as it moved down from above) to remain in a sideways channel below it, in the negative zone. The first downside target is 1.1570 — the MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD forecast for August 13, 2025



Yesterday, the euro once again attempted to test the balance line resistance. This time, it was supported by external markets — the S&P 500 rose by 1.14% and even set a new all-time high. However, the euro is in no hurry — it has not broken out of its range, as it is approaching Fibonacci time period No. 8 on the daily scale. Moreover, the stock market rally itself is facing increasing risks.



The Marlin oscillator's signal line is moving into positive territory. A slight rise is possible, as is a reversal from the upper boundary of the range. Today's session opened above the balance line, so there is a chance of surpassing yesterday's high. The maximum potential growth is toward the MACD line at 1.1770. At the moment, time remains the key factor.

The updated range is visible on the four-hour chart (grey rectangle). Here, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, making it difficult for the price to replicate yesterday's surge. Overall, the sideways movement continues.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview – August 14: Technicals + Fundamentals = Verdict



The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement, which did not require any new fundamental events or macroeconomic releases. Tuesday's U.S. inflation report was more than enough. Recall that headline inflation remained unchanged for the second month of summer, while core inflation accelerated slightly more than forecast. So why have we seen the U.S. currency fall for two days in a row? First, because we have been seeing the dollar decline for the seventh month in a row, we have listed the reasons countless times, and they have not changed recently. Second, because low inflation encourages repeated monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, the labor market has shown discouraging results over the last three months, while inflation remains relatively low. What follows from this? The Fed may cut rates several times before the end of the year — in fact, three times. Third, Donald Trump is winning against Jerome Powell in their forecasts. It was the U.S. president who consistently stated that tariffs would not cause inflation to rise, while the Fed Chair took the opposite view. Frankly, we still believe Powell is correct, as higher prices for many imported goods and goods that use imported raw materials in production cannot fail to provoke a general rise in prices. At the same time, we acknowledge that, for now, inflation is indeed growing very slowly. Let us remind traders of the main equation. If the dollar fell like a stone into an abyss in the first half of 2025, when the Fed maintained a hawkish stance and did not cut the key rate even once, then what can be expected from it in the second half of 2025, when the Bank of England and the European Central Bank remain silent, but the Fed will have to ease monetary policy? Especially if the trade war continues in its current form.

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