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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 13, 2024



Perhaps never before have we seen a scenario where, following a 60 basis point cut in the refinancing rate, the currency issued by the central bank making such a significant move actually rises. But that's precisely what happened yesterday. After the European Central Bank lowered the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, the single currency didn't even consider a decline. On the contrary, it grew quite confidently. And this was the largest single cut in the refinancing rate in the entire history of the ECB. While it's now listed in virtually every economic calendar that this outcome was predicted, that's not entirely accurate. Right before the meeting, forecasts were pointing to a rate of 4.00%. That was changed almost after the fact. So, this large cut was an outright surprise. This raises the question of why the euro continued to rise afterward. The answer lies in the comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde. During her press conference, she explicitly stated that the ECB is putting the monetary policy easing process on hold. In other words, no more rate cuts for now. The market, however, had expected this process to be drawn out over a more extended period. Now, the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates, not the ECB. This shift in expectations likely spurred the euro's rise. However, interest rates in the United States are still significantly higher than those in Europe, which is unlikely to change. The only question is the size of the interest rate disparity. This fact will continue to put pressure on the euro. Once the market recovers from the initial shock, the dollar will likely resume steadily strengthening its position.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Solar vs. Media Storm: Solar Gains, Trump Media Falls!

US Stocks Gain Thanks to Tech Sector All three major US stock indexes ended higher on Wednesday. A solid rally in tech stocks offset a morning of disappointment caused by inflation data that dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. The tech sector, represented by the S&P 500 (.SPLRCT), posted an impressive 3.3% gain after starting the day lower. Key to this was Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares soared 8%. The reason for the rise was a report from Semafor that the US government is considering allowing Nvidia to export advanced chips to Saudi Arabia. Political factors fuel investor interest An additional factor influencing market sentiment was events in the political arena. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris managed to put her opponent, Republican Donald Trump, on the defensive during the presidential debate, which caused some reaction from the market. Inflation data: expectations were not met Earlier in the day, the US Department of Labor released data on the consumer price index (CPI), which rose 0.2% in August, which is in line with July. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3%, beating economists' expectations of a 0.2% gain. Market Rate Changes: Traders Adjust Forecasts Following the release of inflation data, traders revised down their expectations for a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 85% from 66% the day before, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 15% from 34%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Investors were hoping for softer inflation data "The market was probably expecting a more muted inflation reading, which would give the Fed more reason to cut rates by 50 basis points," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2024



The market is starting to prepare for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting this Wednesday, which is causing the euro to continue strengthening its position. The anticipation centers around the market's expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. There are still strong expectations of a 50-basis-point cut. As a result, it may turn out that after the first rate cut in several years, the dollar could rise if the Fed lowers the key rate by only 25 bps. Until then, the dollar will likely remain under pressure and gradually lose value.

The EUR/USD pair is currently in a recovery phase following a recent corrective move. The psychological level of 1.1000 serves as support. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves within the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating an upward sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects If the next stage of the euro's recovery continues amid the market's dollar sell-off, stabilizing the price above the 1.1100 mark could increase the volume of long positions. Under this scenario, the pair may move at least toward the recent local high of September. As an alternative scenario, there could be a slowdown in the recovery cycle, with the price returning to the upper area of the psychological level. The complex indicator analysis indicates an ongoing upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Moderna's bleak outlook drags stocks lower, Warner Brothers inspires investors with 10% gain

Wall Street is on the rise again: gold hits records US stock markets showed solid gains on Thursday, with gold prices reaching a new all-time high. Investors are optimistic about the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, expecting an interest rate cut as early as next week. Stock indices end the day higher The key US indices fluctuated in mixed territory for most of the trading day, but showed solid gains by the close. The European Central Bank's recent decision to cut interest rates and slightly better-than-expected U.S. producer price data helped fuel the rally. Despite this, investors remain confident that the Fed will cut rates slightly at its next meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.58%, the S&P 500 rose 0.75%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. Strong results from tech companies helped the Nasdaq take the lead in growth. World markets trending The MSCI World Equity Index, which measures markets around the world, rose 1.08%, confirming positive investor sentiment in global markets. ECB Cuts Rates Again Earlier on Thursday, the European Central Bank announced its second interest rate cut in three months, which was driven by slowing inflation and weakening economic growth in the eurozone. The cut was predictable, but the ECB has yet to give clear signals about its future plans. While the 0.25% rate cut did not come as a surprise to the market, the question remains as to how decisively and quickly the central bank will act in the remaining months of the year. Focus on the Federal Reserve Market participants are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which will decide on the key interest rate on Wednesday. Investors are expecting the Fed to make the first rate cut since 2020. However, fresh economic data released on Thursday suggest that the Fed will likely limit the rate cut to 25 basis points, rather than the larger 50 basis point cut that some analysts had previously expected. Inflation data softened expectations An important factor for the upcoming Fed decision was the inflation data released on Wednesday and Thursday. The indicators point to a slight increase in prices, but the rate of inflation remains relatively low. Thus, the core consumer price index increased by 0.28% in August, which is higher than the expected growth of 0.2%. In addition, the data on producer prices also exceeded expectations: in August, they grew by 0.2% instead of the expected 0.1%. Despite this, the general trend remains in favor of slowing inflation, which increases the likelihood of a moderate rate cut. The dollar weakens, the euro grows Amid expectations of a rate cut, the US dollar showed weakness against major world currencies. The dollar index, which tracks its dynamics against a basket of leading currencies, fell by 0.52%, reaching 101.25. At the same time, the euro strengthened by 0.54%, reaching $1.1071. This trend reflects global changes in investor sentiment, who expect further easing of monetary policy in the United States. Oil prices rise: Hurricane impact, production recovery Oil prices continued their upward movement, adding almost 3%, amid investor concerns about how severely U.S. crude output will be affected by Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, producers announced forced production cuts, but there were signs that some export ports were partially reopening. WTI crude rose 2.72% to $69.14 per barrel, while benchmark Brent crude rose 2.21% to $72.17 per barrel. Gold at new heights: a safe haven for investors Gold prices soared to all-time highs as expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut made the precious metal even more attractive for investment. Amid market instability, gold has once again confirmed its status as a "safe haven" for capital. Spot gold rose 1.85% to a record $2,558 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.79% to settle at $2,557 an ounce.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2024



Leading media outlets are increasingly promoting the idea of a 50-basis point cut in the U.S. rate, contributing to further weakening of the U.S. dollar. Considering that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is tomorrow, this trend is likely to persist until the close of today's trading. However, the scale of the dollar's weakening is expected to be somewhat more modest than yesterday. The dollar will find some support from macroeconomic data. Despite the possible slowdown in retail sales growth, from 2.7% to 2.2%, the decline in industrial production of -0.3% is likely to turn into growth of 0.2%. So, two key sectors of the economy might show growth, which should provide at least some support for the dollar.

Since the start of the new trading week, the euro's recovery has accelerated, allowing it to surpass the 1.1100 level. This price movement indicates more than a 60% recovery relative to the recent corrective cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating a bullish market sentiment. It is worth noting that the overbought zone has already been reached. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1100 may indicate further growth in the volume of long positions in the euro, which, from a technical analysis perspective, suggests the possibility of the price rising toward the resistance level of 1.1200. The alternative scenario considers a slowdown in the upward cycle in the form of a pullback due to the euro's local overbought condition in the short term. The complex indicator analysis indicates a sustained upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intel heads higher as federal grants give stocks a boost

Investors weigh Fed moves, market reacts unevenly US stocks were mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 posting small gains while the Nasdaq slipped significantly as Big Tech stocks slid. Investors turned their attention to the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where they are expected to decide on an interest rate hike. Tech is on the retreat The tech sector, which has been the leader in the S&P 500 all year, suffered the biggest losses. The S&P tech index lost 0.95%, the biggest decline among all 11 major sectors on the day. A major contributor to the decline was Apple, whose shares fell 2.78%. This led to significant weakness in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The reason for this decline was the forecasts of analysts at TF International Securities, who reported weaker-than-expected demand for the new iPhone 16 lineup. Chipmakers under pressure Apple was not the only one feeling the negative market sentiment. Chipmakers also suffered. Nvidia, whose shares showed the best result in the S&P 500 for the year, lost 1.95%. Broadcom fell 2.19%, while Micron Technology fell 4.43%. This led to a 1.41% decline in the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index. Investor Strategies: Quick Sells in Giant Stocks Ken Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, noted that tech giants are often the first choice for sale when investors need to raise capital quickly. "If people want to raise money quickly, they sell big companies like Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, or Microsoft. You can do it quickly and with minimal risk to your portfolio," Polcari explained.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 18, 2024



If the leading U.S. media were assuring the inevitability of a 50 basis points interest rate cut on Monday, yesterday, it seemed everyone had forgotten about those reports. The same outlets casually began talking about a 25 bps cut instead. This, of course, had its effect and even allowed the dollar to start strengthening from the opening of the U.S. trading session. But in reality, it no longer matters much how big today's interest rate cut will be. The dollar has been losing ground since spring when talks about the upcoming monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve began to intensify. The market has already priced in one or two cuts—those very 50 bps. Of course, the fact that this is the first rate cut in several years will impress the markets, and the dollar will weaken for some time. But the scale of its decline will still be minor. What's far more important is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say. But, based on his previous speeches, he will most likely stick to ritualistic phrases, essentially saying that future interest rate decisions will consider macroeconomic dynamics. In other words, the head of the Fed is unlikely to say anything concrete. Therefore, the market will eventually return its focus to the interest rate disparity, which has recently shifted significantly in favor of the dollar. It's quite possible that once the initial emotions subside, the dollar will start to strengthen. This process could take several months.

During its upward momentum, the EUR/USD pair nearly reached the local high of September 6, at which point the volume of long positions decreased. As a result, a pullback-stagnation occurred, fitting within the component of the upward cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator exited the overbought zone during the pullback but remained in the bullish area of 50/70. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Price stabilization above the 1.1150 level is necessary for the next growth phase. Under this scenario, a complete recovery from the recent correction and an update to the medium-term trend's high is possible. It's important to note that today, technical analysis takes a backseat, as speculators' primary focus is on the outcome of the Fed meeting. The complex indicator analysis suggests a pullback in the short term, while indicators are geared towards an upward cycle in the intraday and medium-term periods.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 19, 2024




For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by a substantial 50 basis points. This move was driven not only by the steady slowdown in inflation but also by the U.S. central bank's concerns about the potential slide of the economy into a recession. However, what is truly surprising is the market's reaction— the dollar immediately started to rise significantly. The reason lies in the statements made by Jerome Powell. The head of the U.S. central bank promptly warned the markets not to expect the same pace of monetary policy easing to continue. According to him, the Federal Open Market Committee is considering cutting interest rates by another 50 bps by the end of this year, but this will happen gradually. With only two meetings left this year, this means 25 basis points at each meeting. However, everything will depend on macroeconomic dynamics. Given that the pace of inflation will surely slow down, there is a possibility that the central bank might only lower its interest rates once before the start of next year. This is precisely why the dollar began to strengthen, as the markets were expecting a more aggressive monetary policy easing. Today, the focus shifts to the Bank of England, which will likely set the tone for further actions by key central banks. The British central bank is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged. In the context of the Fed starting to lower its rates, such a step by the BoE would provide momentum for the pound to rise. This, in turn, would also pull up the euro via the dollar index.


The EUR/USD pair, driven by a strong flow of news and information, shows increased volatility. During this period, the price almost reached the 1.1200 mark. The upward sentiment remains undeniable despite the previous trading day's closing near the opening level. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the current price movement. Expectations and Prospects For the next stage of growth, price stabilization above 1.1150 is necessary. Under this scenario, it is possible to see an update of the mid-term trend high, located around the 1.1200/1.1280 range. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods supports a sustained upward trend.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Surprise Reversal: Fed Cuts Rates, Markets Fall, Indexes Lose Ground

Volatile Trading Ends Down US stock indexes closed with minor losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the upper limit of expectations for the first rate change in four years. Investors were expecting the Fed's move, but their reactions to the decision were mixed. Short-Term Market Fluctuations The trading session was jittery. The S&P 500 had been moving up and down, showing little change, before the Fed's decision. After the rate cut was announced, the index rose 1%, but then weakened again and closed with losses. The Dow Jones index saw similar swings, reaching an intraday high, but then, like the S&P 500, ending the day lower. The Fed is betting on inflation and the labor market The Federal Reserve justified its decision by citing "high confidence" that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. The Fed's policy focus now is on maintaining the resilience of the labor market, which remains the focus of economists. The half-percentage-point rate cut was a key step in that direction. "The Fed has signaled that they are serious about cutting rates by 50 basis points and will likely continue to do so through the end of the year," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin. In his opinion, such a move indicates the Fed's intention to stabilize the unemployment rate at 4.4% and return inflation to target levels. Market expectations: from 25 to 50 basis points Over the past few days, markets have been unable to decide on the forecasts for the size of the rate cut. According to the FedWatch tool from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point cut was estimated at 65% last week. However, by the time the Fed's decision was announced on Wednesday, the probability of a larger 50 basis point cut had already reached 57%. Minor losses amid expectations of rate cuts US stock indices ended trading in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 103.08 points, which amounted to 0.25%, ending the day at 41,503.10. The S&P 500 lost 16.32 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,618.26. The Nasdaq Composite also lost ground, losing 54.76 points, or 0.31%, to 17,573.30.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 20, 2024



After the Bank of England kept its interest rates unchanged, investors finally realized that the situation in the market was changing somewhat. The number of votes in favor of lowering the key rate decreased, which means the British central bank put on pause further easing monetary policy. Not long before, the European Central Bank implemented a significant rate cut, indicating that any further reductions would occur in the more distant future. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is just starting its monetary policy easing journey. In other words, only the United States will be lowering interest rates in the near future, while in Europe, they will remain unchanged. This is precisely why the dollar is losing ground, and it seems this process will continue for several months.

The EUR/USD pair has almost fully recovered its value after the recent corrective cycle. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the local high of the upward trend. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement direction. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1150 reflects a bullish sentiment among market participants. However, buyers still face resistance in the 1.1200/1.1280 area, which represents the peak of the medium-term trend. This area must be overcome to strengthen the current trend; otherwise, it could act as resistance. The complex indicator analysis indicates an upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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