LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, H4
This week the price of silver continues to decline, reaching the lows since August on Wednesday at the level of 20.42. Trend reversal is possible due to the fact that the metal is oversold. On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downward and started to narrow. The pair XAG/USD is trading near the moving average of the indicator (20.80), which is the key resistance level. If the price fails to overcome this level, the pair will push off from this level and go down to 29.45 (bottom line of “Bollinger bands” indicator). Otherwise, the pair can reach the level of 21.20 (top line of the indicator). MACD histogram is in the oversold zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downward.



XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart silver is traded in the downward channel. The pair has reached the lower limit of the channel at the level of 20.45 and may start upward movement. “Bollinger bands” demonstrate divergence confirming downtrend. The price chart has recently broken the lower moving average suggesting probability of the rise up to the level of 21.70 (medium moving average). MACD histogram is in the oversold zone, its volumes are increasing. Both lines of Stochastic can leave oversold zone soon and form a strong buy signal.



Key levels
Support levels: 20.45 and 20.10.
Resistance levels: 21.20, 21.70, 22.00 and 22.50.

Trading tips
Based in the technical indicators we would recommend to open short positions with profit taking near 20.45. Long positions can be also opened from this level with the target of 21.70.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the USD lacks upward momentum

Current trend
On Wednesday and Thursday the British currency regained more than 200 points against the USD and returned to the level of 1.6100. Growth was prompted by favourable data on the British labour market. Unemployment rate fell by 0.1% as well as the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Even yesterday’s negative statistics on retail sales was not able to hinder the rise in the pair for long.
American news releases will be of interest today: industrial production output and price index for imports and wholesale inventories will become known.


Support and resistance
Due to the lack of important British news the pair can slightly correct downward to support level of 1.6000. A lot will depend on the USD: if US statistics does not support the national currency, the pair GBP/USD will soar up to resistance levels of 1.6200 and 1.6260. In the medium-term the Pound will go down.
Support levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5880 and 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.6200, 1.6260 and 1.6300.


Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to place pending sell orders from the levels of 1.6200 and 1.6260 with profit taking at the level of 1.5750.




Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD

EUR/USD, H4
On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are moving upwards. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from below, current Kumo is ascending. With the help of Golden Cross the pair has entered the cloud from below and is probably going to trade within it for a couple of days. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (1.3469). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the upper border of the cloud (1.3540).



EUR/USD, D1
Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen is below Kijun-sen, and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is getting narrower before the reversal from ascending to descending. Under the pressure of the Dead Cross, the pair has broken through the cloud but weren’t able to consolidate below, so the price has broken through the upper border of the cloud. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 1.3563. The upper border f the cloud is a support level at 1.3469.



Key levels
Support levels: 1.3469.
Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3563.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair has entered the cloud, pending buy orders can be placed above 1.3540. However on the daily chart the price has broken through the cloud, giving a signal to open buy positions with targets at 1.3563.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: general analysis

Current trend
At the opening of the trading session this week crude oil Brent slightly fell in price due to the increase of export of the “black gold” from Saudi Arabia. At the moment the instrument is trading at the level of 108.10. Oil will continue to grow this week because the US Fed is going to keep previous volume of the incentive program. Although some experts believe that the demand exceeds the supply and correction within uptrend may continue.

Support and resistance
The first obstacle for the “bulls” will be the level of 108.60 (Highs of last Friday). Next resistance level is the highs of November at the level of 108.89. Support levels: 107.66 and 106.70.

Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 108.60 with profit taking at 108.89.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 18.11.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the Pound is likely to strengthen

Current trend

The pair GBP/USD grew up at the beginning of this week, reaching the four-week highs of 1.6153. However disappointing data on European payment balance has corrected the Pound downward. At the moment the pair is trading in the narrow range of thirty points (1.6095-1.6125). Investors are waiting for the publication of economic sentiment indices in business sectors of Germany and EU. According to preliminary estimates the indices can rise up to the level of 54.0 and 63.1 points respectively, which will put significant pressure on the American dollar.

Support and resistance

Currently the pair is trading near the medium line of “Bollinger bands” indicator (1.6090). In the near future the price may go up to the level of 1.6150 (upper moving average of “Bollinger bands”) and probably to 1.6190. If ZEW index disappoints investors, the pair will break down support level of 1.6090 and fall to 1.6020.
On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are directed upward. Stochastic lines are crossing. They are directed upward, giving a buy signal. MACD histogram is still in the positive zone; however its volumes are decreasing.

Trading tips

In the current circumstances it makes sense to open long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6150. It also advisable to place pending sell orders at the levels of 1.6150 and 1.6190.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards.. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is still descending. The pair has broken through the cloud from below, though the price can stick around flat Kumo top until the end of the week. The closest support level is Senkou Span B line at 0.9406. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9465.



AUD/USD, H4, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen is below Kijun-sen and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines have merged before the cloud reversal. Under the pressure of the Dead Cross the price has entered the cloud, but weren’t able to break it down, so the pair has returned above the red line. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud at 0.9384. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be Kijun-sen line at 0.9513.



Key levels

Support levels: 0.9406, 0.9384.
Resistance levels: 0.9465, 0.9513.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the pair has broken the cloud from below, giving a strong signal to open long trades with targets at 0.9465. On the daily chart the price is following the upper border of the cloud. Confirmation signal to buy will be a cross of the price chart and Chinkou Span line of the breakdown of resistance level of Kijun-sen.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: the pair is experiencing correction

Current trend

Yesterday the price of the currency pair was growing slowly. Following the speech by Ben Bernanke the pair received additional growth momentum. The head of the US Fed said that situation in the labour market has improved; however it is doubtful that stable economic growth may take place without support from Federal Reserve System. Interest rate is likely to remain at the previous level even after the completion of the assets purchase program. Following these declarations, quotes of the pair EUR/USD have reached three-week highs at the level of 1.3579, and then corrected.
Attention today shall be paid to the US data on retail sales and consumer price index in October, which can provide short-term support to the American currency.

Support and resistance

At the moment market is experiencing correction; the price is moving to support level of 1.3510 (moving average line of “Bollinger bands”). If this level is broken down the price can fall down to the level of 1.3480 and after that the price can reverse and resume upward movement.

On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm probability of the downward correction. Bollinger bands are directed upward; however the price chart is moving towards the average line of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone; it can cross the signal line from top to bottom in the near future, forming a sell signal. Stochastic lines are also crossing, going down and forming a sell signal as well.

Trading tips

In the current conditions it is advisable to open short positions at the current price with the target of 1.3480. Limited sell orders can be placed at the levels of 1.3510 and 1.3480 with the target of 1.3565.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CHF: the pair will continue to decline

Current trend

Following bears’ failure to break down resistance level of 0.9240 at the beginning of the month the pair returned to the downward channel. Now the pair USD/CHF is trading below the level of 38.2% (0.9100), Fibonacci retracement, which has been acting as a support level for a few days. If the pair manages to consolidate below this level, the decline can reach the level of 0.9000. Technical indicators also show the decline. Histogram and the signal line of MACD indicator are in the negative zone. The signal line is directed downward being inside the histogram. Stochastic is below the medium level and its both lines are directed downward.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level of 0.9100 is the key level of the “bulls.” Breakdown of this level will give them a chance to regain losses. Main support levels of the bears are 0.9075, 0.9050 and 0.9000.

Trading tips

It is advisable to open long positions above the level of 0.9100 with profit taking at the level of 0.9150. Limited orders to sell can be placed at the same level. Short positions are recommended below the level of 0.9075.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday afternoon quotes of the currency pair GBP/USD fell to 1.6070 in respond to the publication of the minutes of the US Fed’s last meeting. Members of the Open Market Committee confirmed recovery of the American economy and considered a possibility to curtail bond purchase program in the near future; however they decided to postpone this measure until further improvements in the labour market.
Today statistics on net borrowings in the public sector of Great Britain will become known. According to the forecast budget deficit will reduce reaching 4.8 billion pounds, which will support the British currency.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is experiencing correction. During the day the price is likely to reach the level of 1.6115 (medium line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. If this level is broken down the pair may go up to 1.6150 (top moving average of “Bollinger bands”). On the four-hour chart technical indicators give mixed signals. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are in the oversold zone shifting to the upward movement.

Trading tips

In the current conditions it makes sense to open long positions with the target of 1.6115. Pending orders to buy can be placed at the same level with profit taking near 1.6150.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies