LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of yesterday’s trading session the pair went up, reaching resistance level of 0.8400. However the pair failed to overcome this level and fell to 0.8300. On the four-hour chart pattern “triangle” has been formed. Breakout of this pattern will determine further movement direction of the price.
MACD indicator shows the decline: the signal line is outside histogram and is directed downward. Stochastic is in the oversold zone; both of its lines indicate sideways movement.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 0.8335, next obstacle for the upward movement in price will be: 0.8360 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), 0.8390 and 0.8430. Support levels: 0.8300, 0.8250 and 0.8200.

Trading tips

The most feasible scenario is the decline in the pair. It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 0.8300 with the profit taking at the level of 0.8200.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: USD will continue to strengthen

Current trend
At the end of last week the British currency dropped against the USD amid negative UK statistics and strengthening in the USD. The pair was under pressure from the UK trade balance, as the index was far below the forecast. In the USA unemployment rate fell to 7.3%, while number of new jobs outside agricultural sector increased to 204 thousand. Following the release of US statistics the pair GBP/USD fell to the level of 1.5950; closing level of the last week was 1.6000.

Support and resistance
Following high volatility last week, the pair is trading near key support level of 1.6000. In the medium-term downtrend can consolidate and decline can reach key support level of 1.5750 (highs of June) and 1.5550 (level of 50% Fibonacci).

Indicators: MACD and Ichimoku confirm forecast of downtrend. MACD histogram is below the signal line, moving towards the negative zone. The line Tenkan has crossed Kijun from top to bottom under the cloud, forming a sell signal: Dead cross.

Support levels: 1.6000, 1.5920 and 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.6100 and 1.6260.



Trading tipsIt is advisable to open short positions with the target at 1.5750.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

AUD/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair couldn’t break through the thick cloud and restarted its fall. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9416. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9297.



AUD/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen line from above, forming a Dead Cross reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9447. The support level and a target for the Bears is the upper border of the cloud at 0.9289.



Key levels
Support levels: 0.9297, 0.9289.
Resistance levels: 0.9416, 0.9447.


Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair has bounced off the lower border of the cloud and gone down. On the daily chart we can see a sign of trend reversal. Targets for short positions are 0.9297 and 0.9289.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 11-15.11.2013

Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site http://www.liteforex.com/?uid=434248008

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend
The pair USD/JPY has started this week with a rise. Last week positive news from US labour market gives a strong Bullish impetus for the pair. Today USD/JPY has reached 99.60 and still has a potential to grow.
Yen also may be affected by the fundamental data from Japan. Preliminary stats on Machine Tools Orders will be published today. If the indicator continues to decrease, the pair will go up.


Support and resistance
We expect USD/JPY to rise up to the levels of 99.90 and 100.15 (50% of Fibonacci lines). On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm the possibility of the rise. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are increasing.

Trading tips
Regarding the situation it is recommended to open long trades at current price with targets around 100.15.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
European currency is trading in the range of 1.3365-1.3380. On the H4 chart the pair failed to exceed the upper limit of the trading channel of 1.3415, so decline is likely to continue. Euro is under pressure from the decision made by International rating agency “S&P” to downgrade the level of France up to “AA”. Experts believe that reforms adopted in the tax sector of France will not lead to positive results. It is expected that GDP of France will reduce by 0.1%. In addition, France will have to revise budget policy of the country because of high unemployment rate. The plan, suggested by President of France for prompt exit from financial crisis, turned out to be not very efficient.


Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level on the four-hour chart is the upper limit of the descending channel. Support level is 1.3294.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 1.3294 with the target of 1.3220 and stop-loss near 1.3330.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: negative statistics from UK drags the pair down

Current trend
On Tuesday, following the release of the British negative statistics the pair GBP/USD continued downward movement. It became known that the indices of retail, purchasing selling and consumer prices have declined making the Pound hit the lows of September. Today the data on British labour market will become known, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney will make a speech and Federal budget for October will become known.

Support and resistance
If the data on the British labour market will be up to expectations, the pair may experience insignificant upward correction. Otherwise, the pair will reach new lows of 1.5750. In the medium-term the pair may decline to the level of 1.5550. MACD histogram has moved to the negative zone confirming forecast of decline.

Support levels: 1.5880, 1.5750 and 1.5550.
Resistance levels: 1.5920, 1.6000, 1.6100 and 1.6260.


Trading tips
In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking near 1.5750-1.5550. Pending orders to sell can be placed from the level of 1.6000, in view of expected corrective upward movement.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
This week the pair NZD/USD rate has dropped reaching the two-month lows at the level of 0.8169 on Tuesday. The rise in the USD is associated with publication of the positive data from American labour market. Many experts believe that US Fed can start to decrease the issue of bonds in December. On the other hand, the NZD is under pressure from the speech of the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Graeme Wheeler, who said that it is too early to assess the impact of policy of limitation mortgage lending on the economy of the country.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that price chart tends to the level of 0.8180 (lower moving average of “Bollinger bands” indicator). Bollinger bands are directed downward. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes started to decrease. Stochastic lines are directed upward; however they may cross in the near future and then reverse.

Trading tips
In the current situation it is advisable to open long positions from the level of 0.8310 with profit taking near 0.8370.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
This week, the pair USD/CAD has reached the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 1.0508, and pushing off from this level started corrective decline. Today the price chart has broken down the moving average with the period 50 on the four-hour timeframe, showing the strength of sellers in the market. William’s Percent Range indicator with period 80 is also declining, confirming downward movement. It is likely that the fall of the USD against the CAD will continue; the nearest resistance level will be the bottom limit of the channel at the level of 1.0405.
The price of oil, which has significant influence on the CAD rate, is declining. Quite often the price of the black gold is considered by traders as the leading indicator for making speculative decisions. Today the data on the housing price index at the primary housing market and trade balance of Canada will become known. According to forecast these indices will not change significantly; therefore the rise in the CAD is not expected.


Support and resistance
On the daily chart the nearest resistance level is 1.0466 (local lows of the price). The bottom limit of the ascending channel will become the level of support (1.0405).

Trading tips
Limit sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0466 with the target of 1.0385 and stop-losses of 1.0485.



Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: economic growth in Eurozone has slowed down

Current trend
On Wednesday European currency was slowly regaining after the significant decline. However, ascending movement in the pair EUR/USD was caused largely due to weakening in the USD, following the release of negative economic statistics from the USA), than the recovery of European economy. Fundamental data from Europe is not encouraging. GDP of Germany and France have reduced, which became known today. Later today GPD in Europe will become known. Experts predict that the index will drop by 1/10%. US trade balance for September will be also released as well as weekly report on initial applications for unemployment benefits.

Support and resistance
Judging by the latest data European economy is experiencing another surge of recession, economic growth is slowing down, statistics is discouraging and government measures to stabilize economy are not effective. Additional easing of European economy is one of the measures which can be taken by ECB, but it will put significant pressure on the rate of Euro. It is expected that after slight correction the pair will continue to go down to new local lows of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci) and 1.3100 (lows of August). However, despite the decreasing volumes MACD histogram is still in the negative zone below the signal line, indicating continuation of the downtrend.

Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3300 and 1.3100.
Resistance levels: 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3700 and 1.3830.

Trading tips
In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking near 1.3300-1.3100. Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.3520 in view of minor corrective movement upward.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies