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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 08 May 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4607.00, SL 4557.00, TP 4757.00



Gold starts the week near 4607.00 per ounce, with demand for safe-haven assets supported by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations. At the same time, high oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which limits further upside.

This week, the key factors for gold will be expectations around the Fed rate decision, the US dollar’s performance, and news from the Middle East. If uncertainty remains elevated, interest in gold may recover after short-term profit-taking.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4607.00, SL 4557.00, TP 4757.00



#SP500: BUY 7230, SL 7150, TP 7470



The S&P 500 enters the week near 7230 after a strong end to April and new record highs. The index is supported by solid corporate earnings, especially in the technology sector, as well as expectations for upcoming reports from major companies.

High oil prices remain a limiting factor, as they increase inflation risks and may slow the pace of rate cuts in the US. However, economic resilience and strong earnings results are still outweighing this risk for now.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7230, SL 7150, TP 7470



#BRENT: BUY 108.14, SL 104.50, TP 119.10



Brent is trading near 108.14 per barrel, supported by supply disruptions and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. The US decision to assist vessels has reduced part of the tension, but the market is still assessing the risk of further delays.

Additional supply from OPEC+ remains a limited factor for now, as logistics in the region are still difficult. This week, oil prices will remain sensitive to news about US-Iran negotiations.

Trading recommendation: BUY 108.14, SL 104.50, TP 119.10

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for May 5, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4569.37-4638.17, TP1-4500.47, TP2-4357.27.

• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 4780.00–4830.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.



• Medium-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4725.00–4745.00 and 4560.00–4580.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.

• The area of favorable selling prices in terms of margin is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the low of 04/05/2026.

• The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4569.37.

• Lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is quoted at 4638.17.

• Intraday targets: Renew the lows from 04.05.2026 at 4500.47.

• Medium-term targets: Test the lower boundary of the SWCZ at 4357.27.



• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Sell: 4569.37-4638.17, Take Profit 1–4500.47, Take Profit 2–4357.27.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Crypto Market Awakens: BTC Back Above $80,000!

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has maintained positive momentum. BTCUSD is trading around $80,780, gaining about 6% over the last 7 days. ETHUSD is near $2,375 with roughly a 4% weekly increase, while TONUSD is rising to $1.78, showing an impressive gain of about 37% over the same period.

The market is mainly supported by capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, renewed interest in risk assets, and expectations of clearer digital asset regulation in the United States. Bitcoin remains the primary benchmark for the entire crypto market: its move above $80,000 has strengthened buyer interest and helped altcoins continue their recovery. Ethereum is supported by its role as a foundational network for DeFi, stablecoins, and asset tokenization, while Toncoin has emerged as one of the top gainers following news about Telegram’s expanding role within the TON ecosystem.



Key growth drivers:

Bitcoin ETF inflows: Institutional investors continue returning to cryptocurrencies through spot ETFs. This format makes BTC exposure more accessible and convenient for large market participants, while steady capital inflows create additional demand and support the overall positive sentiment.
$80,000 level for BTC: Bitcoin’s return above this round level has strengthened the technical outlook and increased buyer interest. As long as the price holds above it, the market views the move as a recovery attempt and is more likely to consider buying on pullbacks.
Interest in risk assets: Cryptocurrencies benefit from improving global market sentiment. When investors are less concerned about macroeconomic deterioration, they tend to shift toward higher-yield assets. In such an environment, BTC usually leads the move, followed by capital flowing into ETH and strong altcoins.
Ethereum’s fundamental role: Ethereum remains one of the key networks for DeFi, stablecoins, smart contracts, and real-world asset tokenization. ETHUSD is supported not only by the broader crypto recovery but also by expectations of continued growth in demand for blockchain infrastructure, where Ethereum maintains a leading position.
Telegram and TON developments: Toncoin gained strong momentum following news of Telegram’s deeper involvement in the TON ecosystem. Lower network fees and Telegram’s growing role as a core ecosystem participant are increasing interest from both traders and developers in TONUSD.

According to FreshForex analysts, BTCUSD may maintain its positive momentum in the coming days if it holds above $80,000. For ETHUSD, the key area remains around $2,400, while for TONUSD, the focus is on holding above $1.65–1.70 after its sharp rise. If ETF inflows persist and the external environment remains stable, cryptocurrencies may continue a moderate recovery—making this a great time to consider trading decisions.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 6, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:



USD/JPY fell toward the 156.00 area on 6 May after a sharp strengthening of the yen and broad US dollar weakness. The market is reacting to reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, which reduced demand for the dollar and pushed oil prices lower. This is important for Japan, as expensive energy worsens the country’s trade balance and weighs on the yen; a lower oil premium partly removes this negative factor.

Another factor supporting the yen is expectations of action by Japanese authorities. Japan’s finance minister again warned of readiness to take decisive measures against excessive speculative moves, while recent sharp fluctuations have intensified discussion of possible intervention. Even without official confirmation, this risk is making market participants more cautious about holding long dollar positions against the yen near elevated levels.

The dollar may receive support if upcoming US employment data confirm the resilience of the economy and keep the Federal Reserve on pause for longer. However, as of the current date, the combination of a weaker dollar, lower oil prices and the risk of Japanese intervention creates an advantage for further USD/JPY decline. Therefore, preference is given to selling from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.15, SL 157.05, TP 153.45

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for May 7, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 81500, SL 80500, TP 95000.​



The price experienced some volatility during the previous trading day. Initially, Bitcoin rose confidently, but this was quickly followed by selling pressure that not only returned the price to the starting point of the rally, but also pushed it slightly lower.

For now, this is viewed as a corrective decline within a developing impulsive wave. Going forward, Bitcoin is expected to recover and continue its upward movement.

This outlook is supported by the presumed development of wave 3 of (iii) within the upward impulse.

Thus, long positions remain relevant and continue to offer attractive profit potential.

Investment idea: BUY 81500, SL 80500, TP 95000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Will Non-Farm shake the market?

This Friday, the market will receive one of the key macroeconomic signals of the month — the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The release is scheduled for May 8 at 15:30 EET. At that moment, volatility in dollar pairs, gold, indices, and cryptocurrencies could rise sharply.

The U.S. labor market enters the Non-Farm release in a mixed condition: March’s report was strong at +178K jobs, but forecasts for April are significantly weaker — around 62K, with unemployment expected at 4.3%. Meanwhile, the ADP report showed +109K private-sector jobs, adding intrigue but not guaranteeing alignment with the official BLS data.



If the Non-Farm report comes in stronger than expected, the dollar may gain support as the market begins pricing in a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance once again. In this scenario, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD could come under pressure, while U.S. indices may react nervously.

If the report disappoints expectations, the market may move in the opposite direction: the dollar could weaken, while gold and equities may rise on expectations of a more dovish Fed policy.

In traders’ focus:

EURUSD — reaction to dollar strength or weakness;
GBPUSD — heightened sensitivity to dollar-driven moves;
USDJPY — response through U.S. Treasury yields;
XAUUSD — gold may react sharply to interest rate expectations;
#NQ100 and #SP500 — reassessment of Fed prospects and risk appetite;
BTCUSD and ETHUSD — the crypto market may also gain momentum through dollar dynamics and market sentiment.

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report could become one of the most significant events of the week. The market is waiting for confirmation: is the U.S. economy maintaining strength, or beginning to slow down? For traders, this means heightened opportunity — but also heightened risk. Before the release, it’s worth checking margin levels and position sizes in advance.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 8, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is trading near 1.1730–1.1740 on Friday. The euro remains moderately supported as market participants continue to assess the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2026. Another supportive factor is the relatively stable macroeconomic outlook for the eurozone: the market is not pricing in a sharp deterioration in the ECB’s position, while a pause in further policy decisions supports demand for the single currency.

At the same time, the pair’s growth remains limited. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, while rising oil prices increase concerns about inflationary pressure. Against this backdrop, investors are cautious about opening large positions against the dollar before the release of US labor market data, which may change expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy.

The fundamental picture remains moderately positive for EUR/USD, but without signs of accelerated growth. If US statistics do not strengthen expectations that rates will remain high for longer, the euro may continue to recover from current levels. Therefore, buying remains preferable, while taking into account possible volatility caused by US data and Middle East developments.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1735, SL 1.1705, TP 1.1830

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for May 11, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is holding near 1.3590 after a weak start to the week and a partial recovery during the Asian session. The pound is supported by lower political risks in the United Kingdom and signals from the Bank of England that it is ready to respond to persistent inflation. However, the pair’s upside potential remains limited, as the US dollar continues to attract demand after strong US labor market data.

The American currency is strengthening due to a reassessment of expectations for Federal Reserve policy. April job growth exceeded forecasts, while unemployment remained at 4.3%, making market participants more cautious about the likelihood of an early rate cut. Another factor is the rise in oil prices caused by the escalation around Iran: this increases inflation concerns and makes a prolonged pause by the Federal Reserve more likely.

For the pound, the domestic picture looks relatively stable, but the external environment is more important today. The absence of significant UK statistics leaves the pair dependent on dollar dynamics and Middle East-related headlines. If demand for the US currency remains strong, GBP/USD may continue to decline from current levels despite support from the Bank of England.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3595, SL 1.3625, TP 1.3505

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 15 May 2026


XAUUSD: SELL 4678.00, SL 4718.00, TP 4558.00




Gold starts the week under pressure: spot XAU/USD is trading around $4,675–4,685 per ounce after declining amid a stronger dollar. The rise in oil prices has increased the risk of renewed inflation, weakening expectations of an early Fed rate cut and making demand for non-yielding assets more cautious.

Additional uncertainty comes from the US April Consumer Price Index, due on May 12. Geopolitical demand remains a supportive factor, but over the weekly horizon, the reassessment of interest rate expectations and the dollar looks more influential. The base scenario is a moderate decline with high sensitivity to inflation data.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4678.00, SL 4718.00, TP 4558.00



#SP500: BUY 7399, SL 7339, TP 7579




The S&P 500 enters the week after closing near record levels: the index finished May 8 around 7,399 points. The market is supported by strong corporate earnings, especially in sectors linked to artificial intelligence, as well as the continued resilience of the US economy.

The key risk this week is US April inflation and rising oil prices due to tensions around Iran. Higher fuel prices may put pressure on consumers and rate expectations, but investors are still focused on corporate profits and technology-related capital spending. This keeps the overall backdrop moderately positive.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7399, SL 7339, TP 7579



#BRENT: BUY 105.70, SL 102.20, TP 116.20




Brent starts the week near $105.70 per barrel after another price surge. The main driver is the failure of peace signals between the US and Iran and concerns over possible supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is quickly pricing in a risk premium, as this route is crucial for global oil trade.

The weekly balance remains in favor of buyers: Barclays has already raised its Brent forecast for 2026, while the US Energy Information Administration expects prices to peak in the second quarter. The main limit to further growth is the risk of weaker demand amid expensive fuel, but for now, supply-related news remains more important.

Trading recommendation: BUY 105.70, SL 102.20, TP 116.20

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for May 12, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4632.08-4702.88, TP1-4773.68, TP2-4913.48.

Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 4700.00–4760.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within this range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4705.00–4715.00. At the moment, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out above this range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

The favorable buy price area from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the high of 12.05.2026.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4702.88.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4632.08.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 12.05.2026 — 4773.68.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ — 4913.48.



Trading recommendations: buying from the favorable price range when a reversal pattern is formed.

Buy: 4632.08–4702.88, Take Profit 1–4773.68, Take Profit 2–4913.48.

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