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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 3, 2026 USDJPY

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Change in Non-Farm Payrolls

15:30 EET. USD – Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:



USD/JPY is trading near 159.60 and remains near the upper end of its recent range, though the potential for further gains looks limited. Approaching a round-number level increases the attention of Japanese authorities to market moves and raises the risk of statements aimed at cooling the market, while expensive oil adds strain to an economy that depends on imported commodities.

The US dollar is supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid the Iran-related conflict and by expectations that US interest rates will stay high for longer. At the same time, arguments for a stronger yen are also building: import-driven inflation caused by energy prices increases the likelihood of a tighter policy stance from the Bank of Japan, and sharp exchange-rate moves may be viewed by authorities as speculative.

Today’s US labor market data could become a turning point: weak figures would reduce pressure on yields and make the dollar less attractive. Given the proximity to levels that traditionally trigger a reaction from Japanese officials, it is reasonable to factor in a downside correction in the pair in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.60, SL 159.80, TP 158.40

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 6, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is holding near 1.1520 on April 6. The pair is under pressure due to demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, as the market is focused on the renewed escalation around Iran and risks to supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains above 110 dollars per barrel, which increases inflation risks and reduces interest in the currencies of regions that depend on expensive energy imports.

Additional support for the dollar came from the March US labour market data. The number of new jobs increased by 178 thousand, unemployment fell to 4.3%, and the market reduced expectations of an early Federal Reserve rate cut. US Treasury yields remain elevated, while investors are waiting for the minutes of the March Fed meeting and fresh inflation data. As long as macroeconomic statistics do not point to a sharp slowdown in the US economy, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage.

The euro has some support of its own: inflation in the euro area accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, mainly because of higher energy prices. This has strengthened expectations of firmer steps from the European Central Bank. At the same time, growth prospects for the regional economy are deteriorating, while expensive energy is putting pressure on demand and business costs. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD still faces downside risks.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1520, SL 1.1550, TP 1.1430

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 10 April 2026


XAUUSD: SELL 4652.90, SL 4725.00, TP 4435.00




Gold enters the week near $4,653 per ounce. Pressure on the metal increased after strong US labor market data: in March, the economy added new jobs, while the market began to price in a later rate cut. Octa materials also pointed to weaker demand for safe-haven assets and a shift in expectations for policy easing toward later months.

This week, the main limiting factors for XAUUSD remain a strong US dollar, elevated yields, and the risk that expensive oil may add inflationary pressure. At the same time, geopolitical tensions are limiting the depth of the decline, so the scenario looks like downward pressure with a chance of sharp but short-lived rebounds driven by foreign policy headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4652.90, SL 4725.00, TP 4435.00


#SP500: SELL 6622, SL 6680, TP 6445




S&P 500 futures start the week near 6,622 points, but the backdrop has become noticeably less comfortable. Higher oil prices, a strong US labor market, and delayed expectations for a rate cut are making conditions for equities more restrained. Additional tension comes from the release of the Fed minutes, inflation data, and the start of the corporate earnings season.

In the medium term, major financial institutions still expect the index to rise by the end of the year, but on the horizon of the current week the picture is complicated by expensive oil, the risk of faster inflation, and investor caution ahead of company reports. Therefore, the base fundamental scenario for #SP500 in the coming days is moderate downward pressure with high sensitivity to the news flow.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6622, SL 6680, TP 6445


#BRENT: BUY 110.74, SL 106.90, TP 122.40




Brent starts the week near $110.74 per barrel. The main driver is the continuing risk of supply disruptions due to the military conflict around Iran and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the increase in output from OPEC+ does not yet look sufficient to quickly ease tensions in the market, while refiners are already searching for alternative crude supplies.

Over the course of the week, the balance for oil remains tilted toward growth: any deterioration in the negotiating environment quickly restores a supply risk premium to the market. Additional support comes from analysts revising their expectations for the average Brent price in 2026 after the March jump in quotations. As long as the issue of the strait and Middle Eastern infrastructure remains unresolved, upward pressure is likely to persist.

Trading recommendation: BUY 110.74, SL 106.90, TP 122.40

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for April 7, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 70500, SL 68200, TP 80500.



The persistent resistance and clear unwillingness of Bitcoin to decline increasingly suggest considering an alternative scenario. One of the most probable options is that the corrective decline in the form of a double zigzag has already been completed.

This was followed by the development of a contracting leading diagonal triangle, representing wave (i) of an emerging upward impulse. The corrective decline in wave (ii) can also be considered complete.

Thus, the sharp surge in buying during the previous trading day may mark the beginning of the next impulse wave. Upon updating the local high, cautious long positions may be considered.

Investment idea: BUY 70500, SL 68200, TP 80500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 8, 2026 USDJPY
​
Events to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - Publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

USDJPY:

​

USD/JPY is falling toward 158.40 as the yen is receiving support from several factors at once. The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran weakened the dollar and eased part of the tension in the oil market, which reduced demand for the US currency. An additional factor came from warnings by Japanese officials that they are ready to respond to excessive exchange-rate fluctuations. The area near 160 yen per dollar remains a sensitive zone for the market.

Fundamentally, the yen also looks stronger because of expectations regarding the Bank of Japan. The regulator notes that all nine regions of the country continue to show a moderate economic recovery. Officials from the Bank of Japan and international institutions allow for further rate increases if inflation pressure remains in place. The weak yen and the recent jump in energy prices have increased import costs, so the issue of tighter policy has not disappeared from the agenda.

For today, the backdrop remains unfavorable for the pair. The dollar is losing part of its previous support after the decline in the geopolitical premium, while the yen is gaining an advantage due to expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan and the risk of official intervention if a new wave of yen weakness appears. The base scenario for the current session remains a move lower in USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: SELL 158.40, SL 158.70, TP 157.50

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Crypto crash: no coincidence behind it!

In the first quarter of 2026, BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and BNBUSD posted sharp losses. Pressure on the crypto market intensified amid capital outflows from crypto funds, fading hopes for U.S. rate cuts, and rising anxiety across global financial markets. The sell-off was further fueled by regulatory uncertainty, internal failures within individual crypto projects, and a broader flight from risk among investors.



Key drivers behind the decline:

1. BTCUSD. Bitcoin came under the strongest pressure from persistent hawkish expectations regarding U.S. interest rates and outflows from major cryptocurrency investment products. In January, CoinShares repeatedly reported significant weekly outflows, while in early February Reuters highlighted a sharp price drop and widespread sell-offs.
2. ETHUSD. Ethereum experienced particularly heavy losses due to delays surrounding the U.S. CLARITY Act. The market interpreted this as a sign that the industry still lacks clear regulatory rules, and by the end of March ETH had become one of the main targets of negative sentiment and capital outflows.
3. SOLUSD. Solana suffered a major blow to investor confidence following the Drift hack — a project within the Solana ecosystem — where losses were estimated at over $280 million. This intensified concerns over security risks across the ecosystem.
4. BNBUSD. BNB remains under pressure due to ongoing regulatory issues surrounding Binance. In late March, an Australian court fined Binance Australia Derivatives, reminding the market once again that pressure on the Binance ecosystem has not disappeared.

Pressure on BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD, and BNBUSD may persist, as hopes for a rapid easing of the Federal Reserve’s policy have weakened, while global markets remain nervous due to tensions surrounding Iran, elevated oil prices, and a strong U.S. dollar. When investors shift toward a more risk-off stance, cryptocurrencies are usually among the first assets to come under pressure. In such conditions, it may be worth considering short-selling opportunities and using market weakness as a potential entry point.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for April 9, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4711.45-4788.05, TP1-4864.55, TP2-5122.45.​

• Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range of 4800.00–4850.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place below this range, indicating sellers' strength.



• Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the medium-term trend is located in the range of 4580.00–4615.00 and 4640.00–4675.00. Currently, investment transactions on XAUUSD are taking place above this range, indicating buyers' strength.

• The area of favorable buying prices in terms of margin is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the high of 08.04.2026.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4788.05.

• Upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is quoted at 4711.45.

• Intraday targets: Renewing the highs from 04/08/2026 at 4864.55.

• Medium-term targets: Testing the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 5122.45.



• Trading recommendations: Buy from within the favorable price range when a reversal pattern forms.

• Buy: 4711.45–4788.05, Take Profit 1–4864.55, Take Profit 2–5122.45.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 10, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is holding near 1.1690 on Friday after a notable weakening of the US dollar over the week. The US currency is losing part of its safe-haven demand as the market reduces positions opened during the peak of the Middle East conflict and assesses the prospects for negotiations between the United States and Iran. This allows the euro to maintain an advantage.

The single currency is also supported by the European backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% a month earlier, mainly due to energy prices. In March, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but pointed to risks for prices and growth, while officials indicated that a firmer response remains possible if the energy shock proves persistent.

On the US side, inflation remains a key uncertainty. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range in March, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. Today, the market is awaiting the March US Consumer Price Index report, and if there is no fresh reason for the dollar to strengthen, demand for the euro may remain in place.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1690, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1780

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 13, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



GBP/USD is holding near 1.3405, but the pound remains under pressure at the start of the week due to the broad strengthening of the dollar. After the collapse of negotiations between the US and Iran, market participants once again moved into defensive assets, while the jump in oil prices increased concern over inflation and reduced the likelihood of a rapid easing in Fed policy. For the British currency, this means a deterioration in the external backdrop, as demand is shifting in favor of the dollar.

Within the UK, the picture is also not favorable for the pound. In February, inflation remained at 3.0%, while the core figure rose to 3.2%, indicating persistent domestic price pressure. On March 19, the Bank of England unanimously kept the rate at 3.75% and made it clear that it is ready to respond to new risks linked to expensive energy and an unstable external environment. The market is increasingly less confident about a near-term reduction in borrowing costs.

Additional pressure on the pound comes from business sentiment. According to the latest Deloitte survey, confidence among finance directors of major UK companies dropped to its lowest level since early 2020, while inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 3.6%. Companies are tightening cost control, cutting hiring plans, and becoming more cautious about investment. Combined with a stronger dollar and expensive energy, this keeps the risk of further GBP/USD decline in place.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3405, SL 1.3435, TP 1.3315

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 17 April 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00​




Gold starts the week near $4,716 per ounce after declining amid a stronger US dollar and worsening expectations for a Fed rate cut. The sharp rise in oil above $100 has intensified concerns about a new wave of inflation, which reduces the chances of rapid monetary easing in the US and increases pressure on XAUUSD.

The metal is still supported by tensions in the Middle East and steady demand from central banks, including China. However, the key drivers for the coming days remain the dollar, inflation signals, and comments from Fed officials, so for this week a scenario of moderate downside with elevated volatility appears more likely for gold.

Trading recommendation: SELL 4716.70, SL 4748.00, TP 4621.00


#SP500: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610​




The S&P 500 index finished Friday at 6,816.89 points, but futures slipped to 6,805 at the start of the new week. The main reason is another jump in oil prices and rising tensions around Iran. Higher energy prices are once again increasing inflation risks and making the market more cautious about the prospects for US rate cuts.

This week, the focus shifts to earnings reports from major banks and technology companies. Profit expectations remain generally strong, but any deterioration in guidance on demand, costs, and margins could quickly bring sellers back into the market. For now, the external backdrop remains restrictive, which means short-term pressure on #SP500 looks more likely.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6805, SL 6870, TP 6610


#BRENT: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92​




Brent crude starts the week near $102.23 per barrel after a sharp rally caused by the collapse of US-Iran talks and the announcement of a blockade on Iranian ports. The market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil trade, so buying interest remains strong at the start of the week.

Additional support comes from expectations of tighter supply and a possible shift in the market balance toward deficit. OPEC’s monthly report is due today, while the IEA will publish its oil market report on Tuesday, so supply expectations will remain the central theme for the market. For the current week, the fundamental backdrop for Brent remains supportive of further gains.

Trading recommendation: BUY 102.23, SL 99.00, TP 111.92

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