LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: the pair is being corrected

Current trend

This week the pair USD/CAD has been rising and hit resistance level of 1.0940. US Dollar has been supported by the positive national stats. Manufacturing PMI as well as Construction Spending have risen considerably. From the other hand, Canadian Dollar is under pressure of crude oil prices falling.
Today market players are waiting for the Bank of Canada decision of interest rate. Most probably it will remains at the same level of 1.0%, since the head of Canadian regulator Stephen Poloz promises the raise only in the middle of 2015.

Support and resistance

The pair is being corrected after a long rise. Target of the correction is the middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator (1.0890). The breakdown of this level will allow the pair to go further down to the levels of 1.0860 and 1.0840. Otherwise the price can return to this week highs. Technical indicators confirm the downward trend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards.

Trading tips

Short trades with targets at 1.0840 can be opened as soon as the price consolidates below 1.0890. Long positions with take-profits at 1.0940 should be placed if the price bounces off 1.0890 and breaks through 1.0900.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. After a strong fall the pair has been corrected between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, which have become support (1267.11) and resistance (1276.07) levels respectively.



XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, and both lines are horizontal. However, the correction hasn't reached the red line. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1278.64). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1270.26.



Key levels

Support levels: 1267.11, 1270.26.
Resistance levels: 1276.07, 1278.64.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the pair is in the deep correction, however it is too early to speak about trend reversal. Daily chart confirm the development of the downward trend. Targets for the short positions are 1267.11 and 1270.26.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD

GBP/USD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair is still falling toward last year’s lows at 1.6250. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (1.6376).



GBP/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, however, both lines are directed steeply down, reflecting the power of Bearish movement. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (1.6465). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.6105.



Key levels

Support levels: 1.6250, 1.6105.
Resistance levels: 1.6376, 1.6465.

Trading tips

All Ichimoku lines show the development of the downward trend. Targets for the short positions are 1.6250 and 1.6105.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend
Last week the currency pair USD/JPY has reached six-month highs. The pair has consolidated above the level of 105.00 due to the US data. The market responded to the positive US production activity index, which became known on Thursday. The index increased to the level of 59.5 points against the forecast of 58.5 points. However the pair was not able to maintain the achieved level, as investors were disappointed by the US labor market data- the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector fell to 142 thousand against the forecast of +222 thousand.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 105.22 (Asian session’s highs), 105.70 (six-year highs), 106.00 (important psychological level)
Support levels: 104.98 (Asian session’s lows), 104.67 (Friday’s lows, Fibonacci retracement of 23.6%), 104.10 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%), 103.60 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%).

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened in case of consolidation of the price below the level of 105.00. Long positions are recommended above the level of 105.30.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: China stats put pressure on the Australian currency

Current trend

On Monday the currency pair AUD/USD has lost over 100 points, dropping to the three-week low at the level of 0.9250. Sharp decline in the Australian currency is associated with the data from China. It became known that contrary to predictions, imports to China decreased by 2.4% in August, which inevitably has a negative impact on the Australian producers, as China is one of the main trading partners of Australia.
News releases, which can affect movement in the pair, are not expected today and tomorrow. The main event for the market participant will take place on Thursday, as on this day consumer price index of China for August will become known, as well as employment and unemployment rates in Australia for the same period.

Support and resistance

At the moment the pair is undergoing technical correction, which can reach resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9320. However, it is likely that the pair will steadily go down to the level of 0.9210.
Technical indicators demonstrate mixed signals. Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms downtrend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are in the oversold zone, not giving clear trading signals.

Trading tips

In the current situation it is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 0.9250. Long positions with take profit at 0.9320 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 0.9280.



Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the price of EUR/USD continued to decline. The pair fell to the low of 14 months. Pressure on Euro was caused by the ECB’s decisions to reduce rates to the record lowest level and to launch new incentive programs
On the other hand, the pair EUR/USD is going down due to the strengthening in the USD. According to the report of Federal Reserve in San Francisco, US Fed can change interest rate sooner than expected.
Situation in Ukraine is also uncertain. An uneasy truce, which was achieved recently, has not brought positive changes. Experts believe that the ceasefire will be prolonged, as the parties have not reached agreement on a few key issues

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2957 (yesterday’s highs), 1.3000 (important psychological level), 1.3125 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), 1.3200 (important psychological level).
Support levels: 1.2858 (14-month lows), 1.2800 (important psychological level), 1.2754 (lows of 9 July 2013).

Trading tips

Short positions are recommended if the price breaks down the level of 1.2850. Short-term target is 1.2800, the main target is 1.2755.



Andrey Cherkas
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: “nervous tic” of the Pound before the referendum

Current trend

The British currency has slightly regained after the investors’ panic caused by the probability of separation of Scotland from Great Britain. However although Pound won back some of the losses, this vexing issue still remains to be the key catalyst of the British currency. Over a week is left before the referendum and it is likely that in the following trading days volatility will be high.
Attention today shall be paid to the American data on the labour market; tomorrow retail sales statistics and inventories in the USA will become known.

Support and resistance

It is very difficult to predict movement of the pair in the existing situation, as a lot will depend of the will of Scottish people. That there are two factors on the scales: on the one hand, it is sincere desire of the majority of Scottish people to separate from Great Britain plus serious propaganda, on the other hand, statistics, showing the results of the previous referendums, which indicates that there have always been plenty of those who chose against the separation. At the moment the pair has reached resistance of 1.6260 and consolidated slightly below this level.

Support levels: 1.6200, 1.6150, 1.6065, 1.6000, 1.5970 and 1.5900.
Resistance levels: 1.6260, 1.6350, 1.6400, 1.6370 and 1.6410.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to trade as the trend, placing short positions from the current level and pending short positions from the level of 1.6370 (1.6410) and take profit at the level of 1.6060. In the long-term the pair can reach 1.5600.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

On Wednesday afternoon the pair hit the low of 1.2855; however soon after that it has regained some losses and is trading above the level of 1.2900. Within two days EUR/USD has been trading in the narrow range without significant changes in movement. The pair looks strongly oversold; however despite this fact experts believe that the USD still has growth potential, which can find confirmation in today’s US retail sales data, as forecast for this index is positive. If this positive forecast proves to be correct, it will put additional pressure on the pair and will help the “bears” to consolidate below the level of 1.2900. Otherwise, correction will be possible, but it is unlikely to go above the level of 1.3000. Nevertheless, even this correction can be used by investors as a chance to enter into short positions.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2930, 1.2965 and 1.3020. Resistance levels: 1.2900 and 1.2855; the latter one is the main target of the “bears”.

Trading tips

Short positions are recommended below the levels of 1.2900 and 1.2855. It also makes sense to place limit orders at the levels of 1.3020 and 1.3055.



Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

EURUSD: Euro lack the support

Current trend

Following the significant decline of European currency against the USD, the pair has started to strengthen, and is now trading in the narrow range of 1.2870 - 1.2970. Eurozone has not demonstrated high economic growth lately, while introduction of the sanctions has intensified the negative impact. Euro is weak and is not able to win back at least some of the losses.
Ambiguous data on economic sentiment index was released today. The index in Germany was positive and above the forecast, while the same index in Eurozone fell to the level of 14.2 points. This week the pair can be supported by the results of tomorrow’s meeting of the US FOMC.

Support and resistance

It is likely that the demand for the American currency will continue to increase. On Wednesday investors expect that the timing of the monetary policy tightening will be specified on Wednesday, which can trigger further rise in the USD. In the medium-term the target is 1.2700. Many analysts believe that the pair can reach the two-year lows at the level of 1.1500-1.1000.

Support levels: 1.2910, 1.2860, 1.2750 and 1.2700.
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3190 and 1.3245.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to trade on trend, placing short positions at the current price and pending short positions from the level of 1.3000 (1.3100) with take profit at the level of 1.2700.



Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Gold continues to drop against the USD despite minor correction. On Monday, the price of gold had almost reached the 8-month lows and then went up again. The pair has continued to rise on Tuesday and is still moving up today.
Investors are waiting for the information from the US Open Market Committee on whether the asset repurchase program will be reduced or not. They would also like to know if interest rates on bonds will be increased. Such decisions may prevent the rise in gold and make investors to search for the alternative assets for investments.
In the short term the pair may undergo upward correction. In the long-term the decline in the pair will continue, as the demand for the metal is not high among the Asian buyers; despite the fact that the price of the metal has dropped to the many-months lows.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is the highs of Tuesday at 1241.70. Support level is the opening price level of this week at 1228.50.

Trading tips
In the short-term it is recommended to open long positions with take profit at the level of 1241.70 and stop-loss at the level of 1228.50.
In the long-term it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 1228.50 and stop-loss at 1241.70.

[img]http://www.liteforex.com/uploads/other/9d73e715d35b1e2fba4cba6a4fe8ab76.jpeg">

Igor Shukin
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited