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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for January 06, 2026 BTCUSD.

BTCUSD: BUY 94500, SL 93000, TP 103000

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The situation in Bitcoin continues to develop according to the previously considered wave scenario. The price is doing its best to move higher, apparently developing the third wave within the forming bullish impulse.

At the moment, this wave still does not look completed. For this reason, a continuation of the upward price movement is expected in the near future. Accordingly, previously opened long positions should be kept in play, and new ones may be opened if possible.

Investment idea: BUY 94500, SL 93000, TP 103000.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 7, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change

EURUSD:

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The EUR/USD pair is holding near 1.1700, while the dollar’s moves remain restrained: market participants are waiting for fresh U.S. labor-market data to refine expectations about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Ahead of the release, investors typically cut large positions, so the reaction to the news may be sharp even if the figures deviate only moderately.

The backdrop for the dollar is mixed. On the one hand, part of the demand for the U.S. currency is supported by periods of elevated uncertainty and interest in safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the market still prices in the possibility of further rate cuts in the U.S. in 2026 if the economy slows and price pressures ease. Any signs of cooling employment could increase pressure on the dollar.

In Europe, the single currency is supported by improving sentiment; however, softer eurozone inflation data reduce the likelihood of a firm ECB response and limit the euro’s upside. In this setup, the key driver for the pair today remains U.S. macro data: weaker-than-expected figures would argue for EUR/USD strength, while stronger results would favor a return of demand for the dollar.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1705, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1795

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of Margin Levels for January 8, 2025 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4382.15–4442.15, TP1 — 4502.15, TP2 — 4634.05

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• Long-term trend: bullish (long). The largest volume concentration of the current contract is located in the 4200.00–4250.00 quote range. At the moment, investment activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, indicating strong buyers.



• Medium-term trend: bullish (long). The largest volume concentration of the medium-term trend is located in the 4320.00–4340.00 quote range. At the moment, investment activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, indicating strong buyers.

• Attractive buy area from a margin/coverage standpoint is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the high of 07.01.2026.

• Upper boundary quote of the 1/4 zone: 4442.15.

• Upper boundary quote of the 1/2 zone: 4382.15.

• Intraday targets: a retest / update of the highs from 07.01.2026 — 4502.15.

• Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the ZNKZ — 4634.05.



• Trading recommendations: buy within the attractive price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

• Buy: 4382.15–4442.15, Take Profit 1–4502.15, Take Profit 2–4634.05.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Crypto is charging higher again: BTCUSD and the pack are ready to run

In December, our clients most actively traded cryptocurrencies such as BTCUSD, ETHUSD, BNBUSD, SOLUSD, and XRPUSD — and these instruments delivered the highest share of profitable trades. Today’s review focuses on the crypto market: demand from major investors, news from large corporations, and the ongoing development of leading blockchain platforms are setting the tone for early 2026.

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Growth outlook for cryptocurrencies in Q1 2026:

• BTCUSD — strong interest from institutional investors and the expansion of exchange-traded crypto products support demand even during pullbacks.
• ETHUSD — increasing network usage and progress toward faster, cheaper transfers create room for strengthening in a calm external environment.
• SOLUSD — active project development and rising attention from major market participants point to further upside potential if news remains positive.
• BNBUSD — ecosystem service growth and infrastructure upgrades provide support, though price moves may be sharp.
• TONUSD — expansion of Telegram-related services and user tools may drive additional demand if adoption momentum continues.

FreshForex analysts believe that in the coming months the market will be shaped by three key factors: overall global market sentiment, inflows and outflows into public crypto instruments, and news around the development of major networks. Even under a positive scenario, prudent risk limits should be set in advance.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 9, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

09.01 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

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GBP/USD is holding near 1.3435 after the pound strengthened in early January. Investors are waiting for key US labor-market data, which directly affects expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path and, consequently, demand for the dollar.

The pound has been supported by improved market sentiment and a reduction in domestic risks, but upside potential is limited by expectations for Bank of England policy: discussion of a possible rate cut in the first quarter is restraining buyers. Market participants are also watching UK output and business-activity data to gauge how sustainable the recovery is.

If US data comes in strong, the dollar typically gains the upper hand. Therefore, the base scenario for today is to sell the pair with a protective stop above current fluctuations and a target below current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3435, SL 1.3465, TP 1.3345

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for January 12, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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On Monday, January 12, EUR/USD is holding near 1.1660, reflecting a softer US dollar after reports of an investigation involving the Fed’s leadership and a rise in market nervousness. Investors are pricing in higher uncertainty around the US rate path and temporarily reducing demand for the dollar, while also rotating into safe-haven assets and gold.

On the US side, the picture is mixed: recent labor-market data point to resilient employment, so the probability of a rapid policy easing by the Fed has diminished. At the same time, the market is awaiting the release of December consumer inflation data — an upside surprise could quickly restore support for the dollar, while a moderate print would strengthen expectations for a rate cut later in 2026.

The euro is supported by eurozone data: December inflation returned to around the 2% area, reinforcing the case for the ECB to pause after a series of rate cuts in 2024–2025. If the ECB keeps current policy settings while the Fed remains constrained by both inflation risks and political noise, the balance of factors still favors a gradual appreciation of EUR/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1660, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1720

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 16 January 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4570.00, SL 4540.00, TP 4660.00​

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Gold starts the week near $4,570 per ounce, holding close to record highs amid stronger demand for safe-haven assets. Support comes from rising geopolitical tensions and a softer US dollar as investors reassess the stability of US monetary policy.

Over the coming days, the main driver will be US inflation data and the Fed’s messaging: if price growth remains moderate, expectations of rate cuts should keep gold in demand. A sharp jump in government bond yields could cap gains, but ongoing buying by central banks continues to provide a fundamental cushion.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4570.00, SL 4540.00, TP 4660.00



#SP500: BUY 6970, SL 6940, TP 7060​



The S&P 500 begins the week near 6,966 after setting fresh record highs. Sentiment is supported by expectations of resilient corporate earnings, but the market has become more sensitive to Fed-related headlines and potential political and legal risks in the US.

Key focal points this week are US inflation data and the start of the earnings season for major banks and technology companies. Softer inflation and strong results may sustain demand for equities, while higher inflation and a new wave of uncertainty could increase caution and temporarily cool risk appetite.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6970, SL 6940, TP 7060



#BRENT: SELL 63.40, SL 64.00, TP 61.60​




Brent starts the week around $63.39 per barrel: geopolitical risks in the Middle East add a premium, but the market is not yet pricing in serious supply disruptions. At the same time, attention is growing around a potential recovery of Venezuelan exports.

Over the week ahead, pressure comes from expectations of excess supply in 2026 and cautious demand estimates. Support could appear if there are signs of production cuts or new restrictions on supply from major producers, but without such news the balance of factors still favors a modest decline in Brent.

Trading recommendation: SELL 63.40, SL 64.00, TP 61.60

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for January 13, 2026 NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 25850, SL 25600, TP 26500.

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The index continues to tread water, and volatility is slowly but surely dying out. It looks like the calm before the storm. But it is impossible to say for sure in which direction the price will rage.

The wave pattern under consideration is still viewed as the development of a terminal diagonal triangle within the development of wave (v) of the upward impulse.

In this model, wave 3 is presumably forming. Then we may see growth in the near future. For this reason, it is recommended to keep previously opened buy trades open and, if possible, open new ones.

Investment idea: BUY 25850, SL 25600, TP 26500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

New XAUUSD Records — $4,600!

Over the past month, gold against the US dollar (XAUUSD) has gained more than 10%, rising from around $4,170 per ounce to new all-time highs above $4,600. The rally is unfolding amid expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, a weaker US dollar, and a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. FreshForex analysts previously pointed to the upside potential driven by central bank activity — and this factor remains one of the key drivers.

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Five growth drivers:

1. The Fed is cutting rates. Yields on deposits and bonds are declining, making gold more attractive.

2. The dollar is weakening. When the USD falls, gold priced in dollars usually rises, while also serving as protection against USD depreciation.

3. Heightened global tensions. Conflicts and political risks increase market anxiety and boost demand for safe-haven assets — primarily gold.

4. Central banks are actively buying gold. Steady demand from governments supports prices and reduces the risk of deep pullbacks.

5. Capital inflows into gold funds + the record-high effect. At historical highs, new buyers enter the market, reinforcing the trend.


Gold remains one of the main beneficiaries of an era of elevated uncertainty. FreshForex analysts note that in 2026, the asset is worth considering for purchases — but with strict risk management. It is crucial to closely monitor Fed decisions, dollar dynamics, geopolitical flare-ups, and flows into precious metals funds. On a strong market, local pullbacks can often be viewed as opportunities for more cautious re-entry — provided there is discipline and clear stop-loss control.

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