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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 16, 2025 GBPUSD


Event to Watch Today:

15:30 EET. USD – Producer Price Index

09:00 EET. GBP – Consumer Price Index



GBPUSD:

GBP/USD remains under pressure, trading around 1.3380. Fundamental factors continue to shape a bearish outlook:

Economic Risks: Recession threat in the UK and weak GDP growth (0.1% for Q2) heighten expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in August.

Trade Conflicts: The introduction of tariffs on EU and Mexican imports increases capital flows into the dollar.

Yields: The gap between US Treasury yields and UK government bond yields remains a key driver for the pair.

Key support level is 1.3350. A break below this mark will open the way toward 1.3200. A rise above 1.3420 would be a signal to cancel the bearish scenario.

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Trade Recommendation: SELL 1.3380, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3300

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 17.07.2025 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 119700, SL 121000, TP 114500

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After updating the historical high, buyers calmed down a bit. Their opponents immediately took advantage of this, starting active pressure on the price. As a result, the rate began to drop sharply, but this is a temporary phenomenon. Apparently, this decline is of a corrective nature. This means that we may see the formation of a zigzag structure in the near future.

For this, the price will rise slightly, but it will not be possible to update the maximum again, and the price will go down again. The expected trajectory of the price movement is indicated in the provided screenshot.
In this situation, it is worth considering the possibility of entering sell trades after a slight rise.

Investment idea: SELL 119700, SL 121000, TP 114500.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 18, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The US dollar remains the sole beneficiary of a series of upside macro surprises: June retail sales rose 0.6 % m/m, annual CPI accelerated to 3.6 %, and initial jobless claims fell to a three‑month low. The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy range at 5.25 – 5.50 % through year‑end, lifting 10‑year Treasury yields towards 4.50 %. Against this backdrop, investors rotate into the greenback as the most liquid defensive asset, pushing EURUSD back towards the 1.16 area and making 1.1630 vulnerable to further downside.

In the eurozone, fundamentals remain soft. German inflation flat‑lined in June, while recent surveys point to stagnation in Italian and Spanish manufacturing. Uncertainty over possible 30 % US tariffs on key EU goods adds to the pressure, with a decision expected by late July. Until the trade outlook clears and the 2‑year Bund‑UST spread (‑215 bp) narrows, upside in the single currency looks limited.

A key support zone sits at 1.1530 – the level where strong corporate import demand emerged in February. A decisive break would reinforce bearish momentum and expose the March lows.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1530

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