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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 28, 2025



Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair posted solid growth—0.90% or 149 pips—on the back of a 0.42% strengthening of the U.S. dollar index. As a result, the price is now trading above the daily balance, and MACD indicator lines, and even the Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory.

The price may enter the 145.08–145.91 range, but there is a risk that the breakout above the indicator lines is a false move. If the price drops below 143.45 (reinforced by the MACD line), this would confirm the false breakout and support a decline toward the target support at 141.70, potentially continuing to 139.59. If the price does enter the 145.08–145.91 range but fails to hold within it, a reversal back to 143.45 is also expected soon after. Only a confirmed breakout above the 145.91 level would open the door to an alternative scenario, implying further growth toward 148.66.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has slowed down its advance after interacting with the MACD line. The correction reached 38.2% of the latest downward leg, sufficient to complete a corrective phase. Overall, the pair is in a neutral state, and price action over the next one to two days may consist of sideways or erratic movement without clear directional bias.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025



Main News of the Day: The U.S. Federal Trade Court has blocked the permanent implementation of import tariffs introduced by President Trump, ruling that he exceeded his authority. As an initial reaction to this news, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.53%, S&P 500 futures added 1.50%, and the euro is moving toward testing the target support level at 1.1066. A breakdown below this level would open the path toward 1.0955.

We do not oppose such an unexpected turn of events, at least not in terms of a broad and long-term dollar strengthening, since we have viewed the rise of anti-dollar currencies as a temporary phenomenon from the beginning of the sanctions war. But will today become a pivotal moment? It's quite possible—if, on the weekly chart, the price consolidates below the MACD line, which coincides with May's low at 1.1066. Should this happen, the first downside target would be the March 26 low at 1.0733.

The daily chart shows that the price has broken below the MACD line and the support level at 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has plunged deeper into negative territory. However, if today's candlestick closes at least at the opening level, this downward move may prove to be false, and the dollar's global advance would be postponed. In that case, the euro might attempt to overcome the 1.1535 level, with a target of 1.1692. Considering market momentum, the absence of clear reversal patterns, stock market optimism, rising yields on U.S. government bonds, and the lack of a yield curve inversion, we maintain the euro's growth as the main scenario.

On the H4 chart, the price has settled below the MACD line and the 1.1266 level. However, this move may turn out to be false. A rise above the MACD line—specifically above the 1.1290 mark, which also coincides with the MACD line on the daily chart—would be a strong signal for growth toward the target level of 1.1420.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 2, 2025



The euro closed Friday with a black candle but consolidated above the balance and MACD indicator lines. During today's Pacific session, the price surpassed Friday's opening and approached its high.

The Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward from the neutral zero line. It is evident that the target level of 1.1420 is likely to be reached soon. A breakout above this resistance opens the path toward the 1.1535 target. On the H4 chart, the price reversed upward from the support of the MACD line on Friday.

The Marlin oscillator returned to the growth zone after a false dip into the negative area (gray rectangle). The trend is upward on both timeframes, and we expect the price to reach the 1.1535 target level. The upward movement will likely continue toward the 1.1692 level — the peak from October 2021.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on June 3, 2025



On Monday, the yen strongly broke through the MACD line support and the target level at 143.45, moving 134 pips. The Marlin oscillator has settled into the bearish territory.

If the price fails to climb back above 143.45, it will next work toward testing the 141.70 support. A drop below this level would open the path toward the 139.59 target (the low from September 2024).

On the four-hour scale, the price has consolidated below the 143.45 level. Before the price could retest it as resistance, the MACD line had already dipped below the level, reinforcing it. The probability of the price rising above 143.45, which the Marlin oscillator had indicated, has significantly decreased. We expect the downward trend to continue.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025



Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone slightly slowed the euro's growth amid a continued stock market rally (Dow Jones +0.51%). However, considering the market's growth amid several challenges—including China's ban on rare earth metal exports, difficulties in U.S. negotiations with both China and Europe, hints that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine might be restored, and impending global energy shortages due to AI development—along with a proposed bill in Congress to impose a 20% tax on foreign investor income, this market rally appears overly optimistic. Specifically, Eurozone core CPI for May fell from 2.7% YoY to 2.3% YoY (forecast was 2.4% YoY), and overall CPI declined from 2.2% YoY to 1.9% YoY, against an aggressive forecast of 2.0% YoY.

Yet the euro remains optimistic — yesterday's decline didn't reach any indicator lines on the daily scale, and today started with a new round of growth. Also, the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward without reaching the border of the downward trend territory. Only if the price consolidates below the MACD line, under the 1.1343 mark, would a deeper correction (targeting 1.1066) become possible. However, the price needs to break above the immediate resistance at 1.1420 to resume growth. The targets remain the same: 1.1535 and 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday. However, this seems to have been a false breakout, as the Marlin oscillator is now turning upward from the zero line. We believe that consolidation above 1.1420 — unlike the situation on June 2–3 (gray rectangle) — will form a more sustainable structure for further growth.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 5, 2025



After three days of struggle, the euro has broken through the 1.1420 resistance level. Now, the target at 1.1535 is open. A breakthrough above this level would allow the growth to continue toward 1.1692. The Marlin oscillator, positioned in positive territory, persistently pushes the price upward.

Such a signal on the day the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates is concerning. We believe that the euro's complex rise since mid-May has already taken this rate cut into account, particularly when we compare the euro's performance to that of other currencies, which have been stronger. Market participants may find hawkish hints in the comments from monetary officials (as is often the case) and will continue to drive the euro higher.

On the four-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line and above the 1.1420 level, while the Marlin oscillator is rising in positive territory. We expect the upward movement to continue.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 9, 2025



Moderately optimistic US employment data revived the dollar, causing it to rise by 0.44%. The euro dropped by 50 pips. A divergence with the stock market occurred as the S&P 500 rose by 1.03%. However, one day of decoupling is not enough to push the euro out of its risk-on pursuit, especially since, technically, there is no such process at the moment — Friday's decline was precisely halted at the daily MACD line (1.1372).

The price needs to consolidate below Friday's low to reach 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has also not left the growth territory. However, for the possibility of advancing upward toward the target level of 1.1535, the price must consolidate above 1.1420. Here, the stock market could lend support, maintaining resilience even after Tesla's epic stock plunge. Beyond that, we expect growth toward 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the divergence has played out, and the Marlin oscillator has secured a position in negative territory. At the same time, Marlin has formed a new ascending channel (in green), suggesting the divergence may have already been completed. A stronger confirmation of the expected growth would be a breakout above the MACD line around the 1.1450 mark.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 11, 2025



Yesterday, the US dollar attempted to push the euro below key technical support levels marked by the daily Balance and MACD indicator lines, but the euro withstood the pressure and closed the day above the 1.1420 resistance level.

Today opened above this level, and the indicator lines, marking a critical moment: it's the last day the single currency can potentially develop an upward move, as the price is now at the apex of a triangle formed by the target level and the MACD line. If today's candlestick turns out to be bearish (a "black" day), the 1.1266 target will come into play. However, the main scenario remains bullish, targeting 1.1536, and a solid consolidation above this level would allow a continuation of growth toward 1.1632.

On the four-hour chart, the price is in a weak technical position due to trading below the MACD line, but it is holding above 1.1420, providing some groundwork for an attack on the MACD line at 1.1470. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating along the zero line, offering no real support to the price at the moment. However, the short-term trend remains upward, and a breakout to the upside—both for the price and the oscillator—is more likely than a decline.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025



The U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday stirred the markets: the dollar index dropped by 0.47%, WTI oil surged by 5.54%, gold rose by 1.27%, and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from 4.08% to 4.01%. The core CPI for May remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y, falling short of the 2.9% y/y forecast, while the headline CPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4% y/y, below the 2.5% forecast. Investors interpreted these figures as potentially influencing the Federal Reserve toward easing its policy, all while preserving a semblance of independence. While Fed funds futures still suggest a rate cut in September, the bond market appears to be pricing in such a move as early as the upcoming June 18 meeting, as yield curve inversions are becoming more widespread. This is enough to sustain euro-buying interest for at least another week.

According to the weekly chart, we expect EUR/USD to rise first toward the target level at 1.1692, followed by a move to 1.1815, the September 2018 high, which aligns with the upper boundary of the price channel.

The daily chart shows the price testing the first resistance at 1.1535. A minor pause may occur after breaking above this level, as it is near the April 21 high, and some consolidation is likely before continuation. Beyond that, we expect a rally toward 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price broke above both indicator lines and is growing steadily, while the Marlin oscillator broke out of consolidation to the upside. The initial bullish momentum has already occurred.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


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