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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 21, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese Yen (JPY) started the new week on a positive note and strengthened to its highest level since September against a weakened US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session. Optimism over US-Japan trade talks and bearish sentiment in global financial markets continue to drive flows towards the safe-haven yen. In addition, data released on Friday showed that Japan's core inflation accelerated in March and left the door open for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is seen as another factor supporting the JPY.

Meanwhile, JPY bulls did not seem to be affected by reports that the BoJ will lower its growth estimates amid concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's imposition of harsh tariffs. The US dollar, on the other hand, is sinking to a new two-year low as uncertainty over Trump's trade policies undermines investor confidence in US economic growth. Even Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's relatively tough comments on Friday did little to impress dollar bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains downward.

Trade recommendation: SELL 140.75, SL 141.25, TP 140.10

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Gold hits new record — Next stop: $4000!



Gold has soared above $3,300 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. Since the beginning of the year, XAUUSD has gained over 20%, and analysts are warning: this may just be the beginning of a rally toward $4,000. As geopolitical tensions flare, supply chains for critical minerals falter, and traditional risk assets crumble, the spotlight is back on gold as the ultimate safe haven.

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FreshForex analysts have been forecasting this surge since November 2023. We believe gold will remain a strong investment, supported by a range of powerful factors:

• Trade war escalation: Donald Trump has signed executive orders targeting the reduction of U.S. reliance on imported strategic minerals like uranium, cobalt, and rare earths — the market reacted instantly. Conflicts, wars, sanctions, and international tension typically drive investors to seek refuge in gold.
• Fed at a crossroads: The probability of a rate cut in May is 92.3% (CME data). Lower interest rates reduce returns on traditional fixed-income instruments like bonds, making gold a more appealing option for investors.
• Central banks are stockpiling gold: In Q1 2025, global gold purchases surged 41% compared to 2024. Gold ETFs are holding a record $345.5 billion. Many countries are ramping up gold reserves to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, fueling further demand for physical gold.
• Inflation and structural debt crisis in the U.S.: The University of Michigan forecasts consumer inflation at 6.7% — the highest since 1981. Rising yields, budget deficits, and political instability are accelerating capital flight from the dollar.

Goldman Sachs analysts (#GoldmanSac) have once again raised their gold forecast. The investment bank expects gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of this year and $4,000 by mid-2026. Meanwhile, FreshForex believes the $4,000 mark could be tested as early as this year!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 22.04.2025 #EURUSD

EURUSD: SELL 1.1470, SL 1.1520, TP 1.1130



The price, as expected, managed to update the maximum of the current year. Buyers could have rested on this, as the upward impulse structure is fully formed. But as it often happens, the price decides at the last moment to make another attempt to break through upward, finally knocking out those who believed in the decline too early. In this regard, you should be very careful not to fall into such a trap.

On the whole, we can cautiously start gaining sell positions, as a good enough corrective decline is expected in the future, which will probably start with a downward impulse.

Investment idea: SELL 1.1470, SL 1.1520, TP 1.1130.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 23, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:



EUR/USD is attracting sellers towards 1.1355 in the early Asian session on Wednesday under pressure from renewed demand for the US dollar (USD). The US dollar is recovering after US President Donald Trump said he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, despite his displeasure that the central bank has been slow to cut interest rates.

The White House said on Tuesday that the Trump administration had made progress in negotiating trade deals aimed at reducing the sweeping tariffs he announced earlier this month. U.S. spokeswoman Carolyn Leavitt said 18 different countries have submitted trade proposals to the U.S. and that Trump's trade team will meet with 34 countries this week to discuss potential agreements. Positive developments related to US trade talks with trading partners are helping to strengthen the US Dollar and act as a headwind for the major pair.

In addition, ‘tough’ comments from Fed officials are boosting the USD. Fed chief Adriana Kugler said late Tuesday that as US import tariffs are much higher than expected and could put upward pressure on prices, the US central bank should hold the cost of short-term borrowing steady until inflation risks subside.

On the other side of the pond, rising expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates again at its June meeting are weighing on the common currency. According to LSEG data, the probability of a rate cut in June is almost 75 per cent, compared to around 60 per cent before the ECB's decision.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1300

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Margin analysis of the market for 24.04.2025 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 18459.9-18773.4, TP1-19050.9, TP2-19805.1.

- Long-term tendency: to short. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 18750.0-19000.0. At the moment #NQ100 is investing lower, indicating the strength of sellers. #NQ100: BUY 18459.9-18773.4, TP1-19050.9, TP2-19805.1.



- Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of medium-term trend volumes is located in the range, at quotes 18150.0-18300.0. At the moment, #NQ100 is investing higher, indicating the strength of buyers.

- The area of favourable prices for purchase from the point of view of margin support, is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 23.04.2025.

- The quotation of the upper border of the zone 1/4-18773.4.

- The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone-18459.9.

- Intraday targets: renewal of highs from 23.04.2025-19050.9.

- Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SNKZ - 19805.1.#NQ100: BUY 18459.9-18773.4, TP1-19050.9, TP2-19805.1.



- Investment recommendations: buy from the range of favourable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

- Buy: 18459.9-18773.4, Take Profit 1-19050.9, Take Profit 2-19805.1.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 25, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



The GBP/USD pair is pulling back from its recent gains, hovering around 1.3290 during the Asian session on Friday. The pullback comes amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD), helped by a Bloomberg report that China may suspend a 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment, ethane and aircraft leasing.

Sources familiar with the matter said officials are particularly scrutinising the possibility of removing tariffs on aircraft leasing. China's Ministry of Finance and General Administration of Customs have not yet commented. Further support for the dollar comes from optimism around trade talks with the US. Reuters reports progress in preliminary talks with key Asian allies, including South Korea and Japan.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, is recovering previous losses and is trading near 99.80. However, the dollar faced headwinds after mixed labour market data. The US Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims rose to 222,000 for the week ended April 19, slightly above expectations, while jobless claims fell 37,000 to 1.841 million for the week ended April 12.

In the United Kingdom (UK), the GfK consumer confidence index fell to -23 in April - its lowest level since November 2023 - amid rising living costs and growing concerns about global trade, missing forecasts of -22. Traders now await UK retail sales data and a final reading of the US consumer sentiment index from Michigan later in the North American session.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3270, SL 1.3300, TP 1.3170

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[Volkov Yuriy]

MetaTrader 5 – A revolution in your trading!



MetaTrader 4 is one of the most popular trading platforms in the world — but time does not stand still. As financial markets and technology continue to evolve, the more powerful and versatile MetaTrader 5 has emerged, offering advanced features, higher performance, and innovations not available in MT4.
If you’re looking to boost your efficiency, optimize your trading, and leverage the most modern tools, switching to MT5 could be your next step toward success.

MetaTrader 5 vs. MetaTrader 4: Why Choose MT5?

• Technical indicators: MT5 offers 38 built-in technical indicators. For traders using wave analysis, there is now an easy way to apply Elliott Waves to the chart with just a few clicks — a feature not available in the previous MT4 version.

• Graphical tools: MT5 takes charting to the next level, offering 44 different graphical tools and greatly simplifying the process of finding and applying them.

• Easy access to robots and indicators: The latest version provides direct access to a free database of trading robots and indicators — right from the terminal.

• Strategy tester: MT5’s report on strategy testing results includes more parameters than the previous version and features charts that help visualize key statistical data.

• Trading robots: MT5 allows you to develop simple Expert Advisors using the built-in library directly within the terminal.

• Integrated economic calendar: The “Economic Calendar” tab keeps you informed about upcoming fundamental data releases without needing to consult external sources. All key events are also marked directly on your trading charts.

• Broker website access: The “Company” section provides direct access to your personal account on your broker’s website from within the platform.

• Advanced backtesting and strategy testing: The strategy tester in MT5 is now multi-currency, allowing you to test trading robots across multiple financial instruments simultaneously.

• Timeframes: MT5 supports 21 timeframes, including additional options such as M2, M3, M4, M6, and others — giving traders more precise market analysis capabilities.

These features make MetaTrader 5 the perfect choice for professionals who strive for maximum efficiency and convenience in their trading workflow.
MT5 is especially well-suited for traders working with large volumes of data and complex trading algorithms. The platform delivers high performance while maintaining stability and speed. It is designed to use system resources efficiently, avoiding overloads and ensuring smooth operation even under heavy market conditions. This makes MT5 not only a more powerful tool for analysis and trading but also a more reliable and user-friendly solution for those who demand top performance.

MT5 — Your next level in trading starts here. Download the platform and start earning more today.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for April 28, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:



The Japanese yen (JPY) fluctuated in a narrow range in Monday's Asian session and paused its recent pullback from a multi-month high reached last week against its U.S. counterpart. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not support President Donald Trump's statement that tariff talks with China are underway. That tempered optimism about a quick resolution to trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and provided some support for the safe-haven yen.

Meanwhile, traders pushed back expectations of an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. However, signs of rising inflation in Japan leave the door open for further BoJ rate hikes this year, which is a big divergence from bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. This keeps USD bulls on the defensive and also serves as a tailwind for the low-yielding Yen.

Trading recommendation: SELL 143.20, SL 143.60, TP 142.50

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Bitcoin surpasses Google: Why BTC rallied to $94,000

In April 2025, Bitcoin once again captured the spotlight by breaking above $94,000, reaching a market capitalization of $1.86 trillion. This surge pushed BTC ahead of Alphabet (Google’s parent company), making it the fifth-largest asset in the world.

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The impressive rally in Bitcoin this year has been fueled by a combination of macroeconomic factors and developments within the crypto space itself. New financial instruments, political shifts, and technological advancements have made Bitcoin more appealing and accessible to a wide range of investors.

5 key drivers behind Bitcoin’s growth in 2025:

1. Approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.: For the first time, the SEC greenlit spot Bitcoin ETFs, allowing major institutional players to gain exposure through regulated investment products. This triggered a significant inflow of capital into the crypto market.

2. Weakening dollar and stock market declines: As global economic growth slowed and the U.S. dollar lost ground, Bitcoin emerged as a hedge asset — often compared to gold — with investors seeking safer alternatives to traditional markets.

3. Pro-crypto political climate in the U.S.: The new U.S. administration has adopted a supportive stance on crypto, easing regulations and even announcing plans to build national crypto reserves. This strengthened investor confidence across the market.

4. Bitcoin’s growing role as ‘Digital Gold’: The perception of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value continues to rise. More large investors and corporations are now including BTC in their asset diversification strategies.

5. Technological advancements: The rollout of second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network has made Bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper. This has improved real-world usability and expanded the global user base.

In 2025, Bitcoin continues to gain momentum, breaking new records and cementing its role as one of the world’s most important financial assets. The combination of spot ETF approvals, political backing, macroeconomic shifts, and ongoing tech innovation has created fertile ground for its growth. With each passing day, BTC becomes increasingly attractive to both institutional and retail investors — setting the stage for further gains in the coming years.
Still, Bitcoin’s future will depend on how crypto regulations evolve, the pace of technological breakthroughs, and global economic conditions.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for 29.04.2025 #BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 95200, SL 94300, TP 100000



The situation on the asset under consideration has undergone minimal changes over the past time. The desire to grow still remains, but desperate attempts of sellers to stop this movement are slowing everything down. During the past day there was an attempt to renew the local maximum, but suddenly activated sales cooled all the ardour of buyers. As a result, the price remained at the previous values.

For this reason, expectations of further growth, designed to complete the formation of the upward impulse, are still the same. The potential of the movement, although small, but still gives an opportunity to make some profit, so it is recommended to keep the previously opened buy positions in operation.

Investment idea: BUY 95200, SL 94300, TP 100000.

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