Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:36 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 2: The Euro Declines, but the Range Holds

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The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a decline on Monday and Tuesday. Although the euro lost approximately 100 pips over the last two trading days of the year, it remains within the sideways range of 1.0340 to 1.0450. In the past two days, the euro has simply fallen from the upper boundary of this range to the lower boundary. It is possible for it to rebound from the lower boundary and rise back to the upper boundary. However, in the medium term, the downtrend remains intact, and it is likely just a matter of time before the 1.0340 level is breached, potentially leading to further declines toward the 1.0000 target. The fact that market participants continued to sell the euro actively even ahead of New Year's speaks volumes. No macroeconomic reports or significant fundamental events were published in either the Eurozone or the US over the last two trading days, so there is little to analyze. On Tuesday, one tradable signal was generated. During the European session, the price hovered around a critical line. However, in the early US session, it rebounded from this level and began moving downward. By the end of the day, the price had reached the 1.0340–1.0366 range, where profits could have been locked in.

The most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated December 17. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders has been consistently bullish, but bears have finally gained the upper hand. Two months ago, there was a significant increase in the number of short positions opened by professional traders, causing the net position to turn negative for the first time in a long while. This indicates that the euro is now being sold more frequently than it is being bought. Currently, no fundamental factors support the strengthening of the euro, and technical analysis suggests that the currency pair remains in a consolidation zone, which means it's experiencing a flat trend. In terms of the weekly timeframe, it is evident that the pair has been trading between 1.0448 and 1.1274 since December 2022. Consequently, further declines are more likely, and a break below the 1.0448 level could open up new downside opportunities for the euro. Currently, the red and blue lines on the COT chart have crossed each other, indicating a bearish market trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group decreased by 4,700, while short positions dropped by 14,400. As a result, the net position increased by nearly 10,000, but this does not change the overall trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Mon Jan 06, 2025 8:33 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 6, 2025

The USD/JPY pair has been consolidating below the 157.72 level for the third consecutive day. However, this level represents only the lower boundary of the target range of 157.72–158.32, indicating that further growth may occur today or even tomorrow.

In our pre-New Year analysis, we mentioned that significant movement in the yen is unlikely before the Bank of Japan's meeting on January 24. If the yen remains resilient following the release of US labor market data on Friday, January 10, it will confirm our forecast. Under current conditions, trading decisions carry increased risks. The Marlin oscillator is pointing downward, suggesting that any price rise above 158.32 is highly likely to be a false breakout.

On the H4 timeframe, the price has settled above the balance line (red moving average), and the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory. This indicates potential for further growth. However, the MACD line (blue moving average) is nearing its peak, and it is most likely that both the line and the price will reverse after reaching the apex.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Wed Jan 08, 2025 5:22 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 8, 2025

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Yesterday, the US dollar increased by 0.39%, while the euro decreased by 0.47%. This movement occurred alongside a 1.10% drop in the US S&P 500 stock index. The significant decline in the euro, as well as in other European currencies, aligns with the projections made in December following the end of the "Trump rally."

For the euro to confirm a new downward trend towards target levels of 1.0250 and 1.0135, it is essential that the price consolidates below the 1.0350 mark. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator turned away from the boundary of the growth zone. The price reversed downward after twice piercing the balance line. The correction is now complete.

On the four-hour chart, the price's decline has halted at the MACD line. The signal level has become the MACD line at 1.0338. A break below this level will initiate a move toward 1.0250. By that time, the Marlin oscillator is also anticipated to enter negative territory, further reinforcing the downward trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Thu Jan 09, 2025 3:39 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 9, 2025

Yesterday, the euro consolidated below the 1.0350 level, and during the Pacific session, it continued to decline slowly. The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe is also gradually moving downward.

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There's no rush today, as it is a public holiday in the U.S. However, data on layoffs will still be published, and four representatives from the Federal Reserve are scheduled to speak. The 1.0250 support level is now of secondary significance as the price approaches the target of 1.0135. On the H4 chart, the price has settled below both indicator lines.

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There's no rush today, as it is a public holiday in the U.S. However, data on layoffs will still be published, and four representatives from the Federal Reserve are scheduled to speak. The 1.0250 support level is now of secondary significance as the price approaches the target of 1.0135. On the H4 chart, the price has settled below both indicator lines.

The Marlin oscillator is firmly positioned in negative territory. However, given the U.S. holiday, the intermediate level of 1.0250 may hold. Tomorrow, U.S. employment data will be released, with forecasts indicating moderately positive expectations.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Mon Jan 13, 2025 5:17 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 13, 2025

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As anticipated, U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, leading to a 0.44% strengthening of the dollar index, while the euro declined by 52 pips.

The price has broken through the intermediate level at 1.0250; however, a divergence with the Marlin oscillator is beginning to form on the daily chart. This indicates that the support level at 1.0135 may only be reached after breaking Friday's low of 1.0214. The situation for bears is further complicated by the fact that Friday's price action accurately tested the embedded line of the weekly timeframe price channel.

Further movement toward the next target at 0.9920 (highlighted by the red line of the price channel) is only possible if the price consolidates below last week's low of 1.0214. The intermediate level has now been updated to 1.0214, and the market is waiting for further developments. A correction toward the 1.0350 resistance level is also a possibility.

On the H4 timeframe, a divergence is visible. The price is currently moving within the 1.0214 range with a slight bullish bias. However, upward movement may be capped by the MACD line at 1.0295. If this resistance is breached, the next target will be 1.0350.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Tue Jan 14, 2025 8:00 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2025

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The euro failed to overcome the support on the first attempt on the weekly chart. We hadn't expected such a bold move from the bears.

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Currently, the price is undergoing an upward correction. Convergence on the daily chart has strengthened, and we are awaiting the conclusion of the consolidation phase.

If the price consolidates below the trendline on the weekly chart at 1.0211, this could open up a target of 0.9920. The intermediate levels to watch are at 1.0135 and 1.0030.

On the 4-hour chart, today's price increase during the Pacific session was halted by the MACD line at 1.0278. Should the price gain the strength to surpass this high, growth could extend to 1.0350. The convergence has yet to complete its course.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:05 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 16, 2025

Despite significant movements across the market, European currencies closed on Tuesday with minimal changes: the euro lost 20 pips, while the pound gained 22 pips. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose by 1.83%, oil increased by 3.06%, and gold gained 1.50%. The stock and commodity markets were driven by high profit reports from major banks.

On the daily chart, the upward movement stopped at the 1.0350 resistance level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to develop within a triangle formation. The prevailing scenario suggests a likelihood of the price breaking below the 1.0211 signal level and aiming for support at 1.0135. On the H4 chart, after testing the resistance at 1.0350 and support at 1.0265 (the MACD line), the price returned to its position from Tuesday morning.

The Marlin oscillator remains at a similar level. Since the price has settled below the balance line (red moving average), we expect it to consolidate below the MACD line and test the signal level at 1.0211. If the price consolidates above 1.0350, a move toward 1.0461 becomes likely, representing an alternative scenario.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:37 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 20, 2025

Today, the euro begins trading within the range established on January 15, where it remained throughout last week. Market attention is heavily focused on the inauguration of Donald Trump. If political and economic developments unfold as Trump has indicated, we can anticipate a strengthening of the dollar and a weakening of stock indices.

The euro appears to be set for a decline. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has formed a triangle within a descending trend zone, which increases the likelihood of both the indicator and the price moving downward. A definitive signal for a price breakout to the downside would occur if the price breaches the 1.0211 level, which coincides with the oscillator's signal line breaking below the lower boundary of the triangle. The target for this move is 1.0135.

On the four-hour chart, the price has significantly reinforced the support of the MACD line, meaning that a breakdown of this support could trigger an impulsive decline. The Marlin oscillator is currently at the neutral zero line, suggesting potential synchronized movement. A firm break below 1.0265 would enable the price to effectively challenge the 1.0211 signal level.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Tue Jan 21, 2025 4:07 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 21, 2025

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On the day of Donald Trump's inauguration, it was announced that the new administration would not introduce "global" trade tariffs in the near future. This announcement led to an air of optimism in the markets; however, the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 1.26%, while the EuroStoxx 50 rose by 0.32%. Despite the optimism, the situation may be overly simplistic, as tariffs on various strategic goods, such as automobiles, are expected to be implemented soon. The extent and impact of these tariffs, particularly against China, will largely depend on China's willingness to negotiate. Additionally, investors are anticipating three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This expectation is driven not only by the prospect of lower inflation but also by the potential emergence of trade wars. Major players seem to be taking advantage of the situation to push medium-sized dollar buyers out of the market. Reports indicate that large speculators have accumulated a record-long dollar position since 2019. Once their positions are liquidated, the dollar is expected to continue strengthening in the medium term. However, CFTC data suggests that claims about these record positions may be misleading. Positions were larger at the beginning of 2020. And then, there was indeed an upward market reversal (in May), but that situation was linked to the pandemic and quantitative easing. Currently, these large positions could push the euro further downward without significant speculative spikes.

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We maintain our perspective: on the daily chart, the euro has reached resistance at the MACD line and began to decline today. If the price consolidates below the support level of 1.0350, it will pave the way for a move towards the first target at 1.0135. For a more substantial movement, the price may linger above the support level for a day, awaiting the Marlin oscillator to shift into negative territory.

On the H4 chart, there are two significant support levels to monitor: the 1.0350 level and the MACD line at 1.0283. For the bears to gain full control, the price must break through both of these support levels.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX Bella
 
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Bella » Tue Jan 21, 2025 4:09 am

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump. Season 2: Intrigue, rates and a cryptocurrency with his own name


New rate: dollar stable, Asian markets cautiously optimistic The dollar continued to show resilience on Monday, while Asian stock markets expressed cautious optimism. Investors were tensely awaiting Donald Trump's first steps in his second term, and speculated that Japan could revise its key rate this week. Trump's inauguration and statements Donald Trump will be sworn in at noon ET (17:00 GMT). At a rally on Sunday, he declared the beginning of a "whole new era of American strength," fueling expectations for his first decisions of the new term. The president has promised to sign about a hundred executive orders in the first hours after the inauguration. Key initiatives include pledges to deport illegal immigrants, cut red tape, and make active use of the country's energy resources. On Friday, Trump demonstrated his trademark unpredictability by launching a digital token. He also unexpectedly promised to "save" the popular Chinese app TikTok, which under new legislation has been banned in the United States on national security grounds. Economic Signals and Foreign Policy With U.S. financial markets closed for a holiday on Monday, the reaction to the presidential inauguration is likely to come later, starting with the currency market. Traders are paying particular attention to the prospects for changes in Washington's tariff policy. The impact of new economic steps could become apparent as early as Tuesday, when Asian markets open. Trump also showed a willingness to maneuver diplomatically: His phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday was reportedly constructive. Market Reaction As of Monday morning, U.S. stock futures in Asia were slightly lower. The dollar, which has been strengthening since the fall on the back of positive economic data and a successful Trump election campaign, remained stable. Asian investors are cautious, analyzing the potential impact of the first decisions of Trump's new term and the upcoming meeting of the Japanese central bank. Asian stocks rise, dollar remains strong Japan's Nikkei index (.N225) showed a 1% gain on Monday, setting a positive tone in the region. Investors' attention is focused on the U.S. economic agenda and key statistics that could influence the future outlook for markets. U.S. indices gain U.S. stock indices pleased investors last week, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) posting its best weekly gain since November and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) posting its biggest gain since December. The results came after data showed inflation was slowing, supporting optimism about the strength of the U.S. economy. Dollar: Strength Continues The US dollar remains strong, up 14% against the euro since September. It was at $1.0273 on Monday, close to a two-year high. However, experts warn that markets have priced in potential tariff hikes, which could limit further gains. Trump Tariffs: New Threats to Global Trade President Trump has taken an aggressive stance on tariffs, threatening 10% tariffs on global imports, 60% tariffs on goods from China, and a 25% surcharge on Canadian and Mexican goods. Trade experts warn that such measures could disrupt global supply chains, raise costs for companies, and trigger retaliatory sanctions from affected countries. Impact on Canadian and Mexican Markets The Canadian dollar hit a five-year low on Monday, falling to $1.4486 per US dollar. The Mexican peso also came under pressure, hitting a 2.5-year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday. The moves underscore the unease surrounding the currencies of the US's neighbors amid tariff uncertainty. Cryptocurrencies and Bonds: New Trends Bitcoin slipped early in Asian trading but remained above $100,000, remaining attractive to investors despite volatility. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended last week at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in the past four months. Amid a tense global economic environment, market attention remains focused on the actions of the US. The outlook for tariffs and inflation will shape the agenda for the coming weeks, as investors continue to analyze the impact of these factors on global financial flows.

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