Instaforex Analysis

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:30 am

GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on October 11. Speech by Mark Carney supported the pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD pair, you need:

Buyers managed to stay above the support level of 1.3184, which I mentioned in the morning review, and the comments of the Governor of the Bank of England allowed traders to increase their long positions. The main task for the second half of the day is to break through and consolidate above resistance 1.3220, which will lead to the formation of a new upward movement in the pound with a maximum of 1.3269, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the afternoon, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the support of 1.3147.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.3220 and the formation of a false breakdown on it will lead to a larger downward trend with repeated support test of 1.3184. A break of 1.3184 will allow us to expect an increase in short positions in the GBP / USD pair by updating the lows in the area of 1.3147 and 1.3098, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of the pound rising above the resistance of 1.3220 in the second half of the day, it is best to return in short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.3269.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The price is above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates continuous growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3236. The breakthrough of which will lead to a new wave of pound growth.

Image

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
MA (moving average) 30 days - green
MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
Bollinger Bands 20

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:45 am

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October, 2018

Image

EUR/JPY has seen a low at 129.12 and we are now looking for a break above minor resistance at 129.80 and more importantly a break above short-term important resistance at 130.51. It will confirm that blue wave (2) has completed and blue wave (3) towards 138.10 is developing.
Support is now seen at 129.34 and then at 129.12.
R3: 130.85
R2: 130.51
R1: 130.05
Pivot: 129.80
S1: 129.34
S2: 129.12
S3: 128.99

Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 129.10 or upon a break above 129.80.

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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:26 am

GBP/USD. October 15th. Results of the day. The fate of the pound may be decided at the summit on October 17-18

4-hour timeframe

Image

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 105 p-117 p-79 p-66 p-111 p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 96 PT (97 p). The British pound opened today with a large "gap" down, but managed to close it during the day.

In principle, the technical picture of the last two days for EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs is the same. The only difference is that the pound is more volatile. At the moment, the price has consolidated back above the Kijun-sen line, which may mean the completion of a deep correction and the resumption of an uptrend. However, the MACD indicator is still pointing down (!!!), which is due to the formation of a "gap" at the opening of the market. Thus, the indicator readings are simply incorrect now. As for the fundamental component, in addition to the report on retail sales in the US, which slightly increased the demand for the pound during the day, there is nothing to note today. Even no new rumors about Brexit has not been received. Thus, market participants are fully focused on the summit, which will be held on 17-18 October, and which is highly likely to be either signed an agreement or negotiations will fail completely. Of course, everyone, especially traders, now believe that the "deal" will be signed. But we think the odds are about 50/50. If the parties could easily concede on the Northern Ireland border, they would have done so long ago. Nobody wants to give in, and Britain needs the "deal" first. But additional concessions to the European Union will lower Theresa May's political ratings even more. Not everyone is happy with her rule and negotiations in the UK.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair seems to have completed the correction, but the breakdown of the Kijun-sen line may be false, given the nature of the next bar. Thus, now it is recommended to hurry with the opening of new longs, it is better to wait for clarification of the situation.

Sell positions are relevant as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen line. But MACD did not react to the upward correction and now can not signal its completion with a turn down.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Re: Instaforex Analysis

Postby IFX Gertrude » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:00 am

GBP/USD: turned away from the pound

Wednesday's trading day is marked by uncertainty. The dollar is gaining momentum ahead of the publication of the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve, and the pound and defensive instruments are waiting for the outcome of the EU summit. General nervousness plays in favor of the US currency, especially after the recovery of the US stock market. The British currency, in turn, is not only under the pressure of negative rumors about Brexit, but also due to the slowdown of inflation indicators. There was no trace of yesterday's optimism, after which the GBP/USD pair headed towards the 30th figure.

Meanwhile, there are no results of the key summit yet: only a working dinner will be held tonight, while Theresa may is holding bilateral meetings with its participants. Therefore, the main statements will be announced or closer to the night or (most likely) by tomorrow. But the pound is already getting cheaper throughout the market, as negative forecasts regarding the Brussels meeting began to prevail in the information field. For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that Germany has begun preparations for a chaotic Brexit, as the issue of the Irish border remains an insurmountable stumbling block. The head of the European Council Donald Tusk yesterday took a similar position, adding that the probability of "hard" Brexit is high as ever.

Representatives of other countries are less categorical, but most of them are wary of the upcoming negotiations. Increasingly, there are thoughts that the parties need a time gap until November, December or even January. It is difficult to say whether the rhetoric of the Europeans is a "strategic maneuver" on the eve of the main negotiations, but, apparently, the parties do not really expect any breakthrough from the October meeting.

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According to a number of experts, there is an elementary "game of nerves": despite the fact that the parties planned to reach a compromise in September, the so-called "red line" is still relatively far away. Therefore, so far it is possible to exhaust each other with threats of chaotic Brexit with all the ensuing consequences. Such behavior is a risk, as after another failure in Brussels under Theresa May could once again stagger the prime minister's chair, not only in opposition to the labour, as there are many representatives of the Conservative Party who oppose her.

However, according to other experts, Theresa May is in no hurry to make a deal at this summit. The fact is that at the end of October, the British Parliament will adopt the country's budget for the next year, in connection with which the prime minister needs the votes of deputies. In turn, representatives of the Democratic Unionist Party (May's coalition ally) threatened the prime minister that they would not support the adoption of a financial document if it made concessions on the Irish border. Therefore, Theresa May can delicately circumvent this problem by postponing the signing of the agreement for November.

Thus, the preliminary information background does not bode well for the bulls of the GBP/USD, and today's weak data on inflation offset the positive effect of yesterday's release on the labor market (where a significant increase in wages was recorded).

The dollar, for its part, is also beginning to exert pressure: the US currency again began to be in demand against the backdrop of an uncertain geopolitical situation. Yesterday, several Republican congressmen called for sanctions against Saudi Arabia if information about Riyadh's involvement in the disappearance of an opposition journalist is confirmed.

In addition, the minutes of the September meeting, published today, can also support the dollar. Although this meeting took place before the release of rather weak inflation data in the US, the rhetoric of the document is important for the market. Here it should be recalled that the Federal Reserve in September not only raised the rate, but also excluded from the text of the accompanying statement the definition of "stimulating" in relation to the monetary policy.

Although in the future, Fed officials (including Powell) stressed that the actions of the regulator are still mild and not deterrent. The minutes of the meeting can clarify this situation, thus outlining the prospects of monetary policy next year. In other words, today's release may, firstly, increase the probability of a hike in December, and secondly, increase/decrease the probability of accelerating the pace of monetary policy tightening in 2019. If the "hawkish" notes will prevail, the dollar will get another reason for its growth.

Image

From a technical point of view, the situation with the GBP/USD pair has not changed: the price is still clamped in the range of 1.3105-1.3280, where the support level is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart, and the resistance level is the top line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe. Depending on the outcome of the EU summit, the pair will go to one of the boundaries of the range, followed by its breakdown.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
Best regards, PR Manager

Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com
IFX Gertrude
 
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