LiteForex Market Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair closed the trading day at the opening price due to the expectations of an interest rate increase. But US interest rate remained at the same level. In its Statement, Fed indicated the necessary conditions for the future interest rate rise. These should be the further improvements in the labor market and the signs of inflation moving back to two percent. The Committee noted that in the short term, inflation is expected to be low, however, in the past three weeks, Janet Yellen repeatedly mentioned about the forthcoming interest rate rise.
Raw material assets are worth considering. If the oil prices continue falling, Fed may refuse to raise its interest rate in order to avoid growing of deflationary pressure.
UK Mortgage Approvals rose to 66.582K from 64.826K earlier, thus, indicating the positive dynamics of the housing market.
Today US GDP is released which is expected to grow to 2.6%.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is 1.5576 (last two weeks high).
Support levels: 1.5588 (MA with 60 period), 1.5530 (yesterday low).

Trading tips

Open long positions from 1.5599, with the target at 1.5676 and stop-loss at 1.5578 (10 points below the resistance level).
Positive US GDP statistics may push the price down. In such a case, close long positions at the current level and place sell orders.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday, the publication of macroeconomic statistics in the US, the USD strengthened against its main competitors. According to the data, the GDP growth amounted to 2.3%, while Initial Jobless Claims came out 13 thousands less than their forecasts. Furthermore, despite the Fed did not give the exact date of the interest rate change, strong macroeconomic data suggests a high possibility of the rate change in September.
Today, markets are waiting for publications on the Unemployment Rate and the Consumer Price Index for July in the eurozone. Positive inflation together with no growth in unemployment would strengthen the Euro.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the lower MA of Bollinger Bands and moves upwards.
MACD signals a downward movement of the price in the near future.
Resistance levels: 1.1083, 1.1125.
Support levels: 1.0892, 1.0810.

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of the level of 1.1085 with the target at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1055, and after the breakout of the level of 1.1125 with the target at 1.1170 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0885 with the target at 1.0825 and stop-loss at 1.0910.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the British pound fell against the US dollar but remains within the range between 1.5676 and 1.5530.UK Manufacturing PMI grew from 51.6 to 51.9 points, exceeding the forecast of 51.6. Nevertheless, it is the minimum growth and the index remains quite low.
The Confederation of British Industry reported a rapid pace of economic growth which is likely to last until the year end due to low prices for commodity assets and the low rate of increase in consumer prices. Moreover, favorable statistics in the service sector, which accounts for three quarters of UK GDP, also supports the country’s economy. The GDP rate grew from 0.4% to 0.7% in the second quarter.
US Personal Income rose by 0.4% after a similar gain in the previous month, but this month an attempt to fight low inflation rate failed. Prices Paid index fell from 49.5 to 44.0 points against the forecast of 49.0.

Support and resistance

Support level: 1.5530 (28 July low).
The nearest resistance level is 1.5576 (last three weeks highs).

Trading tips

Open short positions from 1.5606 with the target at 1.5530 and stop-loss at 1.5653 (10 points above the yesterday high).

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair was trading within the range of 100 points. The trading day was opened at 1.0951 and by the afternoon the euro rose slightly, but in the evening the downward movement started and, finally, the European currency fell as low as two weeks ago to the level of 1.0878, losing 73 points.
Today, some important macroeconomic statistics may affect the pair dynamics. EU Services PMI and Retail Sales data for June are released. Retail Sales are expected to decrease by 0.2% in June, however, year-on-year growth of 1.9% is observed. The USA publishes its International Trade statistics and Services PMI.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart indicates that the price reached the lower MA and is about to start moving up.
MACD histogram is in the negative zone below its signal line, indicating the downward movement in the short term.
The nearest support level is 1.0811.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.1083 and 1.1125.

Trading tips

Open long positions when the price reaches 1.1085 with the first target at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1055. When the level of 1.1125 is broken through, set the target at 1.1170 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Open short positions when the price reaches 1.0845 with the target at 1.0815 and stop-loss at 1.0865. When the level of 1.0811 is broken through, set the target at 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0835.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/GBP: Bank of England left interest rate unchanged

Current trend

The Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and the pair EUR/GBP grew significantly.
However, the prospects for the pair remain gloom. The GDP in the UK in the second quarter grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, or by 2.6% annually. Furthermore, a noticed increase in labor productivity represents a very positive economic factor.
In the report, the Bank of England made it clear that the likeliest time for the interest rate increase is going to be the beginning of 2016. At the same time, the ECB continues with its soft monetary policy.
Thus, in the medium-term the pair continues falling.

Support and resistance

The pair continues falling towards the levels of 0.6900, 0.6600 (2004 and 2007 lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart are turning down. On all other charts, they give sell signals.
Support levels: 0.6940, 0.6920, 0.6900.
Resistance levels: 0.7065 (March and May lows), 0.7100 (���50), 0.7210, 0.7270 (���144), 0.7365 (���200).

Trading tips

Open short positions from the current levels and from 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7065 with targets at 0.6940, 0.6920, 06900 and stop-loss at 0.7160.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7210 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7270, 0.7365, 0.7445.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Since yesterday, the pair GBP/USD remains in the flat after a fall for more than 120 points as the news came out.
Economic calendar for today has plenty of releases. Publications from both the UK and the US are due. News from the UK at 11:30 (GMT +3), according to forecasts, are going to weaken the GBP. However, it is hard to predict how the US release is going to affect the USD.

Support and resistance

At present, the price is near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands are narrowing down. Such picture represents a formation of the new trend, which could develop in any direction.
Support levels: 1.5483 (bottom MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.5550 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5620 (local high).

Trading tips

Open long positions above the level of 1.5530, and activate trailing stop above 1.5550.
Alternatively, sell the pair below 1.5500 with the target at 1.5483.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the session, the single European currency is trading at 1.0968.
The nearest important 4/8 Murray level is at 1.0986. If the price overcomes the mark, the next short-term target will be 1.1032.
The currency received support when, last Thursday, Greece made a €186.3 million loan payment. It is the first time that the country managed to meet the deadline.
According to the preliminary information, Greece will receive another €8bn. aid tranche by the autumn to repay its debt to IMF. It is still hard to tell whether the country will manage to recover from the deep economic crisis and implement social and economic reforms. But the Greek problems will certainly be affecting the markets.
Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer delivers his speech today; if he hints at a forthcoming rate hike, the EUR is likely to start falling.

Support and resistance

Support level: 1.0956 (3/8 Murray level).
The nearest resistance level is 1.0986 (4/8 Murray level).

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of 1.0986 with the target at 1.1035 and stop-loss at 1.0960.

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Tuesday, the Euro grew against its major competitors after an unexpected decision by the Chinese Central Bank to devaluate national currency by almost 2%, as the regulator tries to support struggling exporters. Additional support the European currency gained from the news that Greece made an agreement with its creditors to receive the third pack of the financial aid.
Today attention needs to be paid to the data on Industrial Production in eurozone (forecasted -0.2% to the previous month) and the Monthly Budget Statement in the US (expected $132 billion deficit). The publications may weaken the USD.
Another important even is the Fed’s William Dudley Speech that could shed some light on the upcoming interest rate hike.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands, which shows that an upward trend prevails now.
MACD also signals the upward movement as the histogram remains in the positive zone and above its signal line.
Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0854.
Resistance levels: 1.1085, 1.1113.

Trading tips

Open long positions from the level of 1.1090 with the target at 1.1110 and stop-loss at 1.1070, and after the breakout of the level of 1.1113 with the target at 1.1145 and stop-loss at 1.1095.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0965 with the target at 1.0920 and stop-loss at 1.0985, and after the breakdown of the level of 1.0900 with the target at 1.0860 and stop-loss at 1.0925.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Currently, the situation is setting against the British currency. In June, UK Trade Deficit grew significantly, reaching 1.6 billion pounds, so the Central Bank of England is unlikely to increase its interest rates is the nearest future. Thus, the pound should weaken in the long run, making British goods more competitive and increasing UK export.
Fed, on the contrary, should raise the interest rates that will definitely strengthen the dollar.
Today, the US releases Industrial Production index. If the actual statistics exceed the forecast of 0.3%, the US dollar will continue growing.

Support and resistance

Support level: 1.5594 (7/8 Murrey level).
Resistance level: 1.5625 (8/8 Murrey level).

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of 1.5625 with the target at 1.5685 and stop-loss at 1.5600.

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

On Friday, GBP/USD strengthened slightly and closed the trading week at 1.5645. On Monday, the pair opened only 10 points higher and continues hovering around 1.5650.
Today, no important news is released. Only the publication of US Housing Market Index may somehow influence the pair dynamics. However, it is quite unlikely as the index change is expected to be very insignificant.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands are heading up, the price is moving along the upper MA. The price will continue moving this way, until it crosses the upper MA.
Support level: 1.5619 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5571 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.5667 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands).

Trading tips

The pair continues trading sideways, and the price will not change significantly. Wait until the trend changes.
Open short positions when the level of 1.5630 is broken through with the target at 1.5571.