Joe's Journal

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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:09 pm

I forgot to time-stamp transaction 113, so here it is again:

(113) 07/20 16:15 closed (112) manually, +5.67

And since then...

(114) 07/21 14:02 closed (111) @ t/p, +6.05
(115) 07/21 16:54 buy 0.01 1191.02, t/p 1197.07
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:16 pm

(116) 07/22 16:52 closed (115) @ t/p, +6.04


I also took profit on my latest USDJPY buy (+6.55), but I will not be considering that profit in my spreadsheet for the purposes of my zero-balance calculation. My plan is to continue to look for very favorable entries on this and (hopefully) build up enough winnings to cancel out open losing positions for a combined breakeven. Then maybe I'll do the same thing for my gold shorts. That way I can eventually close those things out without taking a sudden hit to my lot-size strategy. It's admittedly a bit of a shell game, but in my head it's a more even-keeled, palatable approach to cutting ties with some of those old positions.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jul 23, 2010 4:37 pm

(117) 07/23 15:12 sell 0.01 1203.05, t/p 1200.04
(118) closed (117) @ t/p, +3.01
(119) 07/23 17:01 buy 0.01 1191.02, t/p 1197.07
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:22 pm

(120) 07/27 16:14 buy 0.01 1179.11, t/p 1188.13
(121) 07/27 17:13 buy 0.02 1167.32 t/p 1179.29
(122) 07/27 17:15 closed (120) manually, +0.72 **
(123) 07/27 17:26 closed open sell position from 05/05 (not enumerated) @1165, -3.72 **
(124) 07/27 17:34 buy 0.01 1168.31, t/p 1179.29 **
(125) 07/28 02:18 buy 0.01 1162.19, t/p 1179.29 **

OK, it was a string of dumb moves on my part, denoted by the asterisks, **

First, as I watched gold tank down near the 1165 lervel, I was happy to see it reach that level because I've had an open sell position at that level since May 5 and I wanted to unload it. So, as I watched price, position (121) was entered, unnoticed by me and was in a position close to that open sell position. I was looking at the pips and saw a positive number, so I decided to just unload that position. A couple minutes later, I noticed the sell position still there and was confused, because I "knew" I closed it. When I look at the trades, I realized I closed the newly opened long position. OK, that was dumb, and now the sell position was back in the negative. I was frustrated and didn't want to see price bounce away, so I just decided to close at a small loss. As if that weren't enough, I re-opened a buy position because I should ahve had one filled that wasn't closed, and then later realized that I was supposed to have opened 0.02 lots, not 0.01 lots. Luckily the price was lower, so I filled a second 0.01 lot position at same take-profit.

It all would have been better had I just left the trades to do their wor without me manually closing.


Anyway, I also entered a random USDCAD position at a very good entry, and walked away with a quick 50+ pip move. I closed at $5.51, which will be used to offset losing USDJPY positions. That trade has nothing to do with the gold strategy. It was just a good profit opportunity, as I entered at good support levels at a very low historical exchange rate. That was at 07/27 14:30, a 0.01 buy and closed at 07/27 17:36.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jul 30, 2010 1:28 pm

(126) 07/29 23:24 closed (124) manually @ 1168.48, +0.16

I mainly did this to close out of my incorrect entry point at a small profit and resubmit a buy limit at the correct entry

(127) 07/29 23:24 closed (125) manually @ 1168.48, +6.28

Same reason. Closed this at a profit and re-entered a limit order at the correct entry.

(128) 07/30 01:53 buy 0.02 1167.32, t/p 1179.29
(129) 07/30 15:46 closed (128) manually @ 1172.70, +10.76


Also in my overall numbers will be a couple other trades, simply based on support points at low historical exchange levels:
07/30 03:30 usdjpy buy 0.01 86.55
07/30 19:02 usdcad buy 0.01 1.0281
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:52 pm

Update here: http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2 ... f-7312010/

Summary:
As of 7/15/2010 the close price of gold was $1,208.08. As of 07/31/2010 the close price of gold was $1,180.70 (-2.27%)
As of 7/15/2010 my account equity was $4,352.26. As of 07/31/2010 my account equity was $4,478.10 (+2.89%)

As of 10/31/2009, when I started this, gold price was $1,045.45, so that has increased in value by 12.94%
As of 10/31/2009, my account equity was $2,360.46, so that has increased by 89.71%.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:39 pm

(130) 08/02 16:15 closed (120) @ t/p, +9.02
(131) 08/02 18:49 buy 0.01 1179.11 t/p 1188.13
(132) 08/03 14:00 closed (131) @ t/p, +9.02
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Thu Aug 05, 2010 4:01 pm

I hope posting my trades have been helpful to anyone who may be trying to learn/understand what I'm doing. I don't think I'll continue to post every trade going forward, but if anyone has any questions I'll answer them. I'll continue to post updated results, and I'll occasionally update where I am on lot sizes and zero-balance target amounts and those things. If we ever hit new highs, I'll make sure I post the new entry levels.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:05 pm

Purely by coincidence, I posted here that I was not going to keep up to date with all my trades, precisely at a time where the strategy called for short positions in gold.

If anyone's paid attention at all to what's been going on in that market, you'll know that the strategy took a big hit on an unrealized basis lately. So, the question here is one of both resolve and feelings about where the market will be going.

A complication arose with the new trading rules that went into effect 10/18, increasing margin requirements. I was entirely prepared to ride out the wave in expectation of a retrace. I was also willing to cut losses when gold retraced back to a very evident supporting trendline at just over $1200. But with all my positions outstanding and the new rules, the last thing I wanted was to risk a margin call or something, so I just decided to close out my positions.

My account took a pretty big hit from its peak, but still up over 25% in less than a year. I didn't cry over it, because it is what it is, and I'll move on. However, had it not been for the concern on the margin call I would have rode this out to a lower position.

But, as I have said in my write-ups, I considered the shorting aspect of this a riskier position, and the safer position is to take long positions only. As it has turned out, gold doesn't even seem to be retracing - when it does at all - the 5% needed to enter long positions.

It is up to the trader to determine level of risk. For the moment, I'm so up in the air about the state of the world and what that means for gold prices that I am now going to limit my positions to long positions.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Tue Mar 15, 2011 10:59 am

It has been months since I've posted. I just updated my thread under the trading systems area to reflect my simplified way of trading gold at the moment. In my last post I indicatated that I liquidated my short positions for a coupkle different reasons. I never re-entered sort, which is a good thing since price has continuted to move upward. It is obvious that this was just too strong a trend to continue doing that. Those positions hit me fairly hard, as I mentioned, and I'd be really doing well had I stuck to the long positions only. Nonetheless, overall account performance is nothing to sneeze at considering I now have boiled this approach down to mere minutes a day at the computer and one entry per day (on rare occasions, there may be a second entry, but never more than two).

Anyway, here's a recap of what's happened since then:

Journal Note on 10/19:
I took a bigger picture approach for the moment and cut my losses after the current drop. Part of the reason I did that was because some trading changes were being implemented in the Forex market and I didn't want to be holding a lot of positions and have unexpected consequences result.

So, while I took a recent short-term bath, my account over the last almost 12 months was up 25% in total at the point I closed the positions.

I was prepared to hold and wait under the old Forex rules, but the change in rules required a doubling of the margin, which could have presented issues for me unless I was willing to really ride out the strategy and pour more money in. Given that I was up on the year, I just decided to be happy with that and close it out.

The shorting strategy was clearly a riskier move, considering I've consistently been bullish long term. I really thought we'd see a decent correction, and we still might. I won't cry over spilt milk if I miss out on it. It is what it is.

For now I will revert back to a buy-only trading strategy on the downswings.

Hey, it was great to see my account up 70%, and it sucks to lose what you made. But I'll take 25% in a year.

At least the value of my actual gold and silver coins is up. Not that I'll be selling those, but it's nice to know.


Journal Note on 10/22:
Had I shut it all down when I was 75% up it would have been a smart move. Especially given my bullish position in the long-term on gold, I knew it was a risky move to go short. But it was also risky to go short the other dozen times I did so where I profited from it. A good chunk of that original increase in my account was from taking short positions at price peaks. I still think it will work its way down more than where it is today, though I'm not as confident in saying it will retrace all the way back to a profit position.

So, basically, I'm going to reset and trade long only on retraces in price. It's essentially the same strategy as I had before without the shorts, and just a couple tweaks to limit trades to once a day at a time after the highest trading activity.

So, my account stands today as up 25.4% since 11/1/2009. Going back to a more conservative strategy due to my flat-out uncertainty about the state of the world. It would appear that gold could well retrace, but the potential downside to shorting right now just seems much larger than the potential upside. Which probably means it's a great time to short...


Journal Note on 10/25:
I didn't lose 50%. I shaved 50% off the value of my gains. i.e. my account was up 75% and ended up 25%. Yeah, it still sucks, but what the hell, I'm still up a good return on the year.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

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