I forgot to time-stamp transaction 113, so here it is again:
(113) 07/20 16:15 closed (112) manually, +5.67
And since then...
(114) 07/21 14:02 closed (111) @ t/p, +6.05
(115) 07/21 16:54 buy 0.01 1191.02, t/p 1197.07
I took a bigger picture approach for the moment and cut my losses after the current drop. Part of the reason I did that was because some trading changes were being implemented in the Forex market and I didn't want to be holding a lot of positions and have unexpected consequences result.
So, while I took a recent short-term bath, my account over the last almost 12 months was up 25% in total at the point I closed the positions.
I was prepared to hold and wait under the old Forex rules, but the change in rules required a doubling of the margin, which could have presented issues for me unless I was willing to really ride out the strategy and pour more money in. Given that I was up on the year, I just decided to be happy with that and close it out.
The shorting strategy was clearly a riskier move, considering I've consistently been bullish long term. I really thought we'd see a decent correction, and we still might. I won't cry over spilt milk if I miss out on it. It is what it is.
For now I will revert back to a buy-only trading strategy on the downswings.
Hey, it was great to see my account up 70%, and it sucks to lose what you made. But I'll take 25% in a year.
At least the value of my actual gold and silver coins is up. Not that I'll be selling those, but it's nice to know.
Had I shut it all down when I was 75% up it would have been a smart move. Especially given my bullish position in the long-term on gold, I knew it was a risky move to go short. But it was also risky to go short the other dozen times I did so where I profited from it. A good chunk of that original increase in my account was from taking short positions at price peaks. I still think it will work its way down more than where it is today, though I'm not as confident in saying it will retrace all the way back to a profit position.
So, basically, I'm going to reset and trade long only on retraces in price. It's essentially the same strategy as I had before without the shorts, and just a couple tweaks to limit trades to once a day at a time after the highest trading activity.
So, my account stands today as up 25.4% since 11/1/2009. Going back to a more conservative strategy due to my flat-out uncertainty about the state of the world. It would appear that gold could well retrace, but the potential downside to shorting right now just seems much larger than the potential upside. Which probably means it's a great time to short...
I didn't lose 50%. I shaved 50% off the value of my gains. i.e. my account was up 75% and ended up 25%. Yeah, it still sucks, but what the hell, I'm still up a good return on the year.
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