Joe's Journal

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Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Mon Apr 04, 2011 11:31 am

Account status as of 3/31/2011: +48.39% since inception (11/1/2009)
Annualized: +34.50%; Avg Per Month: +2.35%

Return in February 2011: +2.28%



11/1/2009 - 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 - 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 - 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 - 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 - 3/31/2011: +14.73%


Current positions (all long - results in terms of per microlot (contol of a single ounce)):

none
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Mon Apr 04, 2011 11:33 am

When I initially set my pending orders after closing out a trade, I do so at the most recent low trading value since execution of the last trade. Every morning, I bump that up along support points up to a maximum of 99% of high price since last executed trade.

I moved that last pending order up to 1420.31, which executed on 4/1 16:06 my broker time. This morning I closed that position out at 1436.79, for a profit of 16.48/microlot, less swap fees of $0.01/microlot.

After closing out the order I once again placed a pending order at the lowest trading point since last execution, which is 1413.36. I won't put all the moves up here, but based on my daily looks at it, I could get in at this price or higher.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:28 pm

[Post from 4-8-2011, but equally applies today]

I'm really glad I decided to pull out of my short positions. Sure, I lost money, but had I obstinately clung to that strategy, I'd really be sucking wind right now.



[Post from 5-2-2011]

Well, of course the month I decide to take a little break from trading is the month that everything runs up... I took a few minutes to look back at the charts and had I traded this month according to plan, I probably would have had 3-4 additional entries that, depending on my exit, could have yielded me a pretty nice month. One reason I didn't do the math was because I was pretty sure I'd be PO'd at not finding time to take advantage, and so I'm just moving on. Well, all is not lost. The market's still there.


I did trade during the first couple weeks of April, though, and so I do have an account update.

Account status as of 4/30/2011: +50.49% since inception (11/1/2009)
Annualized: +33.52%; Avg Per Month: +2.30%

Return in April 2011: +1.42%



11/1/2009 - 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 - 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 - 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 - 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 - 4/30/2011: +16.36%



Ref# 236046.355223.516
Current positions (all long - results in terms of per microlot (contol of a single ounce)):

none
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:29 pm

[Post from 5-13-2011]

I kind of neglected posting my individual trades this month, but I got back into the game and have had an interesting month so far. Here's a recap:


TRADES OPENED AND CLOSED as of close of trading today

All profits/swaps stated in "per microlot (per ounce)" terms:

1) 5/3/11 BUY Gold @1532.44
2) 5/4 Closed (1) @ 1539.45 ==> Profit = $7.01 less $0.005 swap fees
3) 5/5 BUY Gold @1506.59
4) 5/5 BUY Gold @ 1506.61 (accidentally only ordered half my normal position in (3)
5) 5/6 BUY Gold @ 1480.16
6) 5/9 Closed (5) $1510.16 ==> Profit = $30.00 less $0.005 swap fees
7) 5/10 Closed (3) @ 1512.80 ==> Profit = $6.21 less $0.03 swap fees
8) 5/10 Closed (4) @ 1512.88 ==> Profit = $6.27 less $0.03 swap fees
9) 5/11 SELL USDJPY @ 81.172
10) 5/12 BUY Gold @ 1489.12
11) 5/13 Closed (10) @ 1508.80 ==> Profit $39.36 less $0.01 swap fees
12) 5/13 Closed (9) @ 80.800 ==> Profit = $4.60 less $0.08 swap fees

Currently Carried positions:

5/4 BUY Gold @ 1524.05 ==> Currently at a loss of $30.80 less $0.05 swap fees.

*Numbers won't add to actual return, since I vary position sizes

Actual month to date return, including unrealized loss on carried position = +1.93%



Will very likely be setting a buy point on gold at around $1484 Monday morning. If it's at or below that level when I wake up, I'll buy at market.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:30 pm

[Posted 5-24-2011]

Since 5/13:

TRADES OPENED AND CLOSED as of close of trading today

All profits/swaps stated in "per microlot (per ounce)" terms:

1) 5/16/11 SELL USDCAD @ 0.97520
2) 5/17/11 BUY XAUUSD (Gold) @ 1483.46
3) 5/18/11 Closed (2) @ 1490.48 => Profit of $7.02 per microlot less $0.005 swap fees
4) 5/19/11 Closed (1) @ 0.96702 => Profit of $8.46 plus $0.03 swap fees


Currently Carried positions:

5/04/11 BUY XAUUSD @ 1524.05 ==> Currently at a loss of $0.90 less $0.10 swap fees.
5/17/11 SELL USDJPY @ 81.196 ==> Currently at a loss of $11.16 less $0.14 swap fees
5/23/11 SELL USDCAD @ 0.97703 ==> Currently at a loss of $1.22 plus $0.01 swap fees

*Numbers won't add to actual return, since I vary position sizes

Actual month to date return, including unrealized loss on carried position = +3.83%


[Posted 5-26-2011]

Closed my 5/4 Gold position yesterday @ $1531.08 for a profit of $7.03 per microlot less $0.105 swap fees.


Currently Carried positions (profits stated per microlot):

5/17/11 SELL USDJPY @ 81.196 ==> Currently at a loss of $1.91 less $0.22 swap fees
5/23/11 SELL USDCAD @ 0.97703 ==> Currently at a loss of $3.99 plus $0.03 swap fees

Actual month to date return, including unrealized loss on carried position = +4.54%
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:31 pm

[posted 5-31-2011]

Summary as of close of business today, 5/31:


Closed my 5/23 USDCAD position today at 0.97217 for profit of $5.00 per microlot plus $0.07 swap fees per microlot.



Account status as of 5/31/2011: +57.57% since inception (11/1/2009)
Annualized: +35.45%; Avg Per Month: +2.42%

Return in May 2011: +4.71%



11/1/2009 - 7/31/2010: +89.71%
8/1/2010 - 10/17/2010 (the date at which point I ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions): -34.35%
10/18/2010 - 12/31/2010: +11.94%
1/1/2011 - 1/31/2011: -7.23%
2/1/2011 - 5/31/2011: +51.83%



Ref# 236046.371937.547d.19m
Current positions

5/17/11 SELL USDJPY @ 81.196 ==> Currently at a loss of $4.29 less $0.30 swap fees
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:31 pm

[Posted yesterday]

Closed USDJPY position @ 80.764 this morning, for profit per microlot of $5.35 less $0.36 swap fees (net profit = $4.99/microlot).

June 2011 Month-to-date return = 0.26%.

No open positions.

I have a lot of limit orders set on various currencies right now at various pullback points. I evaluate these every day. Strictly trading with the trend line at this point, not countertrading against it. I'd rather wait for pullbacks to trade with the trend line than try to anticipate the pullbacks by buying/selling against the trend. Been there, done that.

A logical question that I'm still trying to work out is when to assume the trend is over and a trend in the opposite direction has occurred. It's a good question. Admittedly, it's a judgment call, and some trends are easier to discern than others. The most conservative route is to only trade a currency pair where the trend is the same on Weekly, daily, and 4 hour charts. Good strong corroboration of the trend there. And no, I don't fit trend lines. I just look at the chart. If it looks like it goes up from left to right, it's an uptrend. If it looks like it goes down, it's a downtrend. I don't determine entry points by trend lines or anything. occasionally I'll fit a line if I think a break of that line might have meaning, but normally that is a secondary consideration.

Currently, USDJPY Weekly is a strong downtrend, daily is a strong downtrend, and 4 hour is a weak downtrend. I continue to trade that as a downtrend. An interesting set of charts is EURGBP. The Weekly is a strong uptrend from left to right, but the majority of that move occurred September 2007 - December 2008. The Daily chart actually shows a slight downtrend, but the 4 hour chart is a clear uptrend. I am considering this an uptrend, but being cautious about entering, so it's more on my "watch" list to see if the 4 hour trend continues.

Anyway, I've mainly traded gold until now, but I've been watching the other charts all along and have developed what I think is a very similar strategy on currencies. I'm starting off with minimal positions on these so that if I screw up it isn't too costly (on the flip side, my gains are also minimal, but that's OK). I'm also more cautious about entering multiple positions - I'm spacing my trades at twice the distance I space my gold trades. Part of that is caution, but part of it is an understanding that Gold - while driven by supply/demand factors globally, primarily adjusts in the short-term to the USD when priced in USD. Other currency pairs can be more volatile due to opposing forces or actions in the two different economies, so there's a bit more risk of undesirable swings there.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:34 pm

Entered a new position this morning:

6/3/11 SELL USDCAD @ 0.98501

This entry point was determined as follows:

I had a previous trade on USDCAD (see previous posts) that was open from 5/23 to 5/31. Starting at 5/23, the lowest point traded was 0.96541. I set my SELL entry on currencies that I'm shorting at levels at or above [Lowest recent trade point] / (.99)^2. This level for USDCAD was 0.98501.

The next step is to check the highest trading point since inception of the last trade. That level was 0.98149. Since this is below my minimum determined entry level, I go with the 0.98501. Had it been higher, I would initially set my entry point at the higher level, and then each day adjust it lower along hourly highs until I either buy in or I hit my minimum entry point.

If I am not entered, and price drops to a new low level, then I reset the minimum entry point according to the above formula.

Once entered, I'll set a second entry point from the current one according to the same formula.

I only do this in the direction of the long-term trend. At some point a trend may reverse, so there may be a need in the future to "cut bait" on an individual trade here and there. It will happen, and I don't have a specific criteria for doing that. One mitigating factor is that, by focusing on the regional highs and lows, it is possible for the trend to reverse, but the strategy will still work as long as the reversal has enough variability within it. The need to cut bait would occur after a sharp reversal that doesn't rebound to previous profit levels.



I may be entering a new era where this is no longer a gold-predominant strategy, as I get more comfortable applying a tweaked version of it to other currencies. I will, however, trade smaller positions on currency pairs as I expand my trading into other areas.

It's not exactly the same strategy, but close enough to consider it as such. Same general approach, just a little different on the parameters.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:38 pm

[Posted on 6/6/2011]
Closed USDCAD position @ 0.97983 this morning, for profit per microlot of $5.29 plus $0.01 swap fees (net profit = $5.30/microlot).

June 2011 Month-to-date return = 0.40%.

No open positions.





TODAY:
Been pretty quiet for a stretch here as I've waited on some price movements.

Finally entered in this morning in a gold position, as follows:

6/13/11 BUY XAUUSD @ 1524.73

Price took a bit of a dive down and is now at $1514ish.

Will check in tomorrow. If price continues to drop below $1509.48 I'll execute another buy. If not (and isn't in profit-taking area) I'll set a buy limit order at that price.
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

Re: Joe's Journal

Postby Joe T » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:42 pm

[6/16]
Closed the open Gold position this morning at $1529.93, for a profit of $5.20 per microlot less $0.025 swap fees.

Two other positions executed this morning:
6/16/11 BUY AUDUSD @ 1.05217
6/16/11 SELL USDCAD @ 0.98659

Month-to-date return in June so far: +0.76%


[6/17]
6/16/11 BUY AUDUSD @ 1.05217 ==> Closed this morning @ 1.06187; profit = $9.70 per microlot plus $0.11 swap fees
6/16/11 SELL USDCAD @ 0.98659 ==> Closed this morning @ 0.98053; profit = $6.18 per microlot plus $0.04 swap fees

No open positions

Month-to-date return in June so far: +1.11%



[6/23]
6/23/11 BUY XAUUSD @ 1518.35


The following are my pending limit orders as of today. Many of these change on a daily basis, so this is just a snapshot. Many are waaaay outside any reasonable expectation of filling an order because I'm still more in the mode of tracking the price movements and charts and not worrying about being active quite yet.

udschf: pending sell order @ 0.88283
eurjpy: pending sell order @ 117.451
gbpjpy: pending sell order @ 137.095
eurchf: pending sell order @ 1.53370
eurusd: pending buy order @ 1.26080
eurgbp: pending buy order @ 0.72420
usdmxn: pending sell order @ 12.6237
gbpchf: pending sell order @ 2.03560
euraud: pending sell order @ 1.70430
audcad: pending buy order @ 0.91440
audnzd: pending buy order @ 1.25550
xagusd: pending buy order @ 13.69
usdjpy: pending sell order @ 81.490
usdcad: pending sell order @ 0.98968
audusd: pending buy order @ 1.04369
Joe T
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:26 am

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