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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:58 am

The currency pair EUR/USD had broken out and expected to resume its upward movement while inflation data appeared to be stronger than anticipated that lead the European yields higher.

The yield differential currently moves to the side of EU yields that paved the way for the single European currency to gain higher.

Confidence further surges on its renewed decade highs while consumer lending also increased. Most of the headlines from the United States came in better than expected, however, American yields are following its EU counterparts that put pressure to USD.

The pair broke out through its fresh 1-year peaks over the resistance at 1.1365 around highs of August 2016 while trying to test 1.1616 level near May 2016 peaks.

The support reached 1.1365 mark which is a previous resistance, followed by the 10-day moving average seen at 1.1148 region.

The pair’s momentum became positive when the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover buy signal. It was generated due to spread that crosses on top of the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from negative to positive zone and confirmed a buy signal. The index prints in the black with an ascending trajectory indicating a higher exchange rate.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:41 am

The New Zealand currency experienced a volatile session during Wednesday's trading reaching the downtrend line shown in the weekly timeframe, and eventually, break down.

A position under the 0.73 handle indicates a slightly bearish tone, but, the longer-term market attempts to establish an adequate pressure to accomplish a breakout.

The downtrend line is important as the commodity markets do not offer any help towards the NZD. Having said that, performing a breakout might be difficult however when doing so, it should be massive as it touches the level 0.75 in short order.

Alternatively, it is also possible to breakdown but it requires a gap under the 0.7250 region to be conference since that area is considered to be a “lower low”

The NZDUSD pair endured an extreme volatility in the last few sessions suggests the previous situation within the Forex market in general.

The Kiwi dollar is known to be the least liquid among major pair that’s why we normally see lots of noise.

The current level of 0.73 is basically a “fair value” for the pair, hence, short-term traders would likely resume moving from side to side around that territory.

In the longer-term, a confirmation in order to complete the breakout is necessary even for bullish traders, as a means to put money to play within a really choppy market.

In case that, agricultural futures gained higher value this would mean that the NZ dollar will receive some support. But it appeared that traders’ attention is focused on the current situation of the interest rate.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 03, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:27 am

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the Friday session. It proceed to grind close to the 112 level and if the market is successful in breaking higher than the peak of the range for the day, the next move of the market would be towards 113 handle. Buyers continue to jump in the market following the dovish decision of the Bank of Japan regarding its monetary policy. Any pullback cannot be a telltale sign of a downtrend, not until a break lower than the 110 region has been achieved to determine if the potential uptrend has ended.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 04, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:06 am

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has had a difficult trading session yesterday as the dollar is starting to recover in the market as the week starts. Several data are expected to come out from the U.S. as traders are anticipating these data to be supporting the greenback.
In view of this, this commences the week in a great start especially for the U.S. dollar that dollar bulls could take advantage of and could further get better until the holiday but could proceed into consolidation prior to the resurgence of the volatility tomorrow.
The cable has had trouble following the bad data from the U.K. when the Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations. Although, the Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. came in stronger. These added pressure to the GBP/USD pair and promote the pair to get lower at 1.30 up to 1.29 level.
Currently, the pair is hovering strongly close to the resistance region in 1.3030 which seems to be similar to yesterday’s forecast. Moreover, the pair climbed uphill at a quicker pace where a correction won’t be surprising to happen.
The market sentiment is becoming stronger that the BOE would hike rates sooner which is also supported by the central bank as it is hawkish over the past month. Governor Carney is saying that the pound has surpassed the obstacle and a hawkish decision would be beneficial for the pound.
More expectantly, the employment data from the U.S. are assumed to come out positively which could raise the option for another rate hike from the Fed soon. It is intriguing on the how next week will turn out as the pound and the dollar would fight off on which will be priced higher than the other.
For today, the Construction PMI data from the U.K is expected to be published while the U.S. in a holiday that offsets the volatility and the liquidity in the market with low trading activities. It is reasonable to expect consolidation in the market.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 5, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:31 am

The euro-dollar pair resumed its downfall while the U.S. yields were able to make further progress on the back of the stronger-than-expected result of the ISM Manufacturing report issued on Monday. The US market was closed on Tuesday due to Independence Day holiday, however, there are few catalysts that stimulate the EURUSD amid balance of the week which includes the United States’ Payroll report on Friday.

The pair headed lower and bound to test the support close to the 10-day moving average found at 1.129. The exchange rate eased from the 1.14 handle which is considered the 1-year high and stayed around 1.1350 region near the peaks of August 2016.

The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 mark. Momentum came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints in the black linked with a flat trajectory which suggests some consolidation.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 6, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:48 am

The EURUSD rebounded from its session lows after the release of FOMC minutes which indicates rising concerns of Fed officials regarding the drop in inflation accelerating.

The pair buoyed due to stronger data showed by the EU PMI and Retail Sales.

Peter Praet from the European Central Bank strongly suggests to be leery and patient and take it slow in changing the monetary policy.

The pair further bounced around the support level 1.1318 close to the 10-day moving average.

The resistance approached the 1.1444 region around the June highs. The momentum on the euro-dollar pair came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints near the zero index level. The index constitutes a flat trajectory pointing towards consolidation.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:31 am

The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.

As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:58 am

The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up.

A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down.

The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market, the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test.

The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592.

When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels.

Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.


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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 11, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:32 pm

The British pound attempted to soar against the Japanese yen but failed as it pulled back to the 147 level. The market has been advancing in the long term more like grinding and gain from small increments.

It seems that the market is going to decline for any particular period of time since the Bank of Japan will most likely maintain its low borrowing rates for long-term. Whilst the Bank of England might increase its rates in near-term and after some time, the price could break towards the 150 level. Currently, it is a little bit over extended laterally that makes grinding a way to gain impetus and proceed to the upper channel for long-term.

Buying dips would be an ideal to gain in short-term but restricted to not so good moves (20 to 30 pips is attainable). However, if it breaks lower than the 146 level then this could proceed lower towards the 145 handle which can be more supportive compared to the areas being tested as of the moment.

It may be a bit difficult to trade the GBP/JPY pair yet the market signals that they favor the uptrend. Hence, it is best to hold shorting this pair especially since the 150 is being strongly resistive. However, if this has been gapped, the market could rally much higher for an extended period.

For now, the short-term profits in the market could get bigger once it gains momentum but it still requires more patience to trade this pair in the market.


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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 12, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:23 am

The Euro against the British pound pair declined at the beginning of Tuesday session as it reached the 0.88 level below. Although, there is a significant amount of support found in the market as a whole as it has been in the previous resistance. Hence, it is reasonable for the trend to bounce off.

After the comments of the Monetary Policy Committee member Broadbent, traders began selling the pair as it has been less hawkish than anticipated. Although, this is quite an overreaction. Towards the end of the day, the 0.89 level is being attained which offers a bit of resistance. Hence, pullbacks may be the best way to move forward while the 0.90 level is being resistive for long-term which could appeal more to traders.

Buying in the dips is the recommended to enter the market where they see pullbacks to be valuable. Hence, traders are beginning to sell the British currency first.

The 1.28 level is being massively supportive in the GBP/USD pair. If it persists in having a support level in the said area then it could not reach the 0.90 level immediately. However, if the British pound breaks down, this will be a significant move for the U.S. dollar which will put a negative pressure on this pair particularly to the British pound as a whole.

Both currency markets should be observed but would be relative to each other. It is not advisable to sell this market due to the impulsive attitude is seen for the day.


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