Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Hello Forum Members!

I am Andrea, an official representative of ForexMart.

Me and my colleagues will post daily technical and fundamental analysis on this thread to keep you updated about the market and help you increase your trading efficiency.

Thank you!

[Andrea ForexMart]

The dollar unsuccessfully increase in spite the fact of positive stock markets sentiment and healthy labor market data of the USA. Since the reported inflation level was reached by China, investors were grateful about the scarcity of its negative forecasts. In addition, the dollar was also affected by the Fed's meeting minutes that was released on Wednesday. The traders have an implication about the tender tone of the regulator that there is an additional regress from December's plans.

The inflation would stay at low levels according to the ECB minutes. Mario Draghi stated that by the next meeting on March 10, the ECB was all set to carry out further monetary policy easing. We once again come by the dissimilar expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. The EUR/USD pair grew a little bit by the end of the trades.

For January, the UK issued retail sales release at the level of 2,3% m/m and 5,2% y/y in opposition to the reported 0,8 m/m and 3,6 y/y. In contrary to the previous month, the positive trend in the labor market permit us to hope for retail sales increase. In the past year, a growth of wages was recorded in the UK throughout the period of November to December. By the end of the trades, the GBP/USD pair displayed an increase.

The Gross Domestic Product of Japan in 2016 was 1.0% to 0.8% to which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demote its inflation report. In the beginning of this year, the Japanese yen was stabilized by 5.1% in opposition to the dollar. An aftermath of this is the decrease in the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. In January, the trade deficit in Japan reached 645.9 billion which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. By the end of the trades, the USD/JPY pair reduced.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The main topic yesterday was the referendum of the British to stick within the European Union or to depart from it which will be held on June 23, 2016. Discrepancies of opinions in British society become more noticeable as the topic goes on and on.

The first support is at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen create descending movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: February 24

The week was started with the dollar's aggrandizement over its competitor. In spite the fact that the oil price is aggressively rising, the US currency together with the stock assets managed to increased. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for February caused the dollar to slightly decelerate which was dropped to its bottom-most level of 51.0 since October 2012. The preceding value was 52.4 and the reported was 52.3.

In the 4th quarter, the Gross Domestic Product of Germany heightened unlike the recent quarter which correlates to the inflation rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure proved the preliminary evaluation. Hence, the Gross Domestic Product inflation rate reached 1.1% yearly. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.

The possible Brexit caused the GBP/USD pair to decreased. It is clear that the vigorous pound selling is due to the declaration of Mayor Boris Johnson, London, where he stated that he is all out support for the British exit from the European Union. The holding of the referendum on June 23 this year was confirmed by Prime Minister David Cameron. Despite of these advancement, the Citibank put up its estimation of the Brexit probability from 20-30% to 30-40%. The GBP/USD pair aggressively decreased.

On Tuesday, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, stated that he did not see direct connection amid the monetary base growth and the inflation expectations. But still, Kuroda overvalue the effect of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The USD/JPY pair is stabilizing.

[Andrea ForexMart]

In spite of the concerns that Brexit may affect the Eurozone, the euro still enfeebled this week. The ECB representative Mr. Jens Weidmann stated that prolonged uncertainty about the topic might have an impact to the global economy. Moreover, disregarding the consequences of soft monetary policy might cause an issue. He also added that the economic point of view was not as bad as it seemed. Furthermore, a poor growth was an issue for the monetary policy and the slow Eurozone regains should be proceeded this year and the next year.

The first support occurs at 1.0925 and at 1.0800 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1050 and at 1.1150 subsequently.

A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The euro find its vigor to thrust the dollar down through the poor US data. The Markit Services PMI for February came out at the level of 49.8 contrary to the reported value of 53.5 and the recent 53.2. In the meantime, the expected slow decline of the primary housing market sales is -4.4% but slumped by 9.2%. The United States published the following reports: Initial Jobless Claims which is 272,000 contrary to the reported 270,000; Housing Prices which is 0,4% m/m contrary to the reported 0,5% m/m; Orders for Durable Goods wherein 1,8% m/m in opposition to the reported 0,2 m/m.

In spite of the decrease in oil prices, worries for the irregularity of the banking system of China, as well as the Brexit issue, the demand for euro reduced. Concurrently, the probable exit of British from the European Union caused the pound to multi-year lows, which also push the euro as well. There were assumptions of the probable depolarization of the European Union caused by the parting of UK which also make the traders to not use the euro as a safe haven. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.

Amidst the fact of the possible UK exit from the EU caused the GBP/USD pair to be pressured. The market was unpredictable in the expectation of the UK Gross Domestic Product data for Q4. Traders hoped for an increase by 0.5%. As a matter of fact, the second GDP estimate occurs at 0.5% q/q and +1.9 y/y. The GBP/USD pair is recovering.

The yen strengthened again in a new wave of risky assets sales this week. However the dollar showed a growth against the yen on Tuesday’s trades.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Since the inflation growth of Japan decelerated in January and became known, the Japanese yen decreased in opposition with the dollar. The issues of the regulator is apparently the cause of the slow-moving inflation as it could not regain the inflation to the target level of 2%. In addition, the positive report of USA GBP which is 1,0% contrary to the reported 0,4% has become the growth driver.

The first support occurs at 112.20 and at 111.40. The first resistance lies at 113.00 and at 113.80 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement displaying a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The most expected occurrence for this week would be the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), which is the final report that hopefully would change the mind of the Federal Reserve regarding the March rate hike. The Automatic Data Processing Report (ADP) will be published on Wednesday while the NFP will be on Friday.

The low inflation jog the trader's memory that the ECB was probably tighten its policy in March which cause the euro to still be under pressure. The other Eurozone countries displayed a deflation while the Germany reflected an increase for February and advanced to 0.4% after decreasing to 0.8% in January which concerns the consumer prices. The Eurozone published consumer price index for February. The index displayed -02% y/y, the reported was 0.1% y/y. The EUR/USD pair declined by the end of the trades.

The Brexit matter did not reduce its impact on the global financial markets. A statement from George Osborne, Finance Minister of Great Britain added a new impulse to panic. According to him, the British currency might fall and the country might encounter intense economic issues if it quitted from EU. The GBP/USD pair increase by the end of the trades.

The Japan's industrial production report for January was published which cause the yen to become popular. Contrary to the previous month, the index increased. The industrial production growth was 3.7% whilst the economists reported a growth by only 3.3%. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The United Kingdom has publicized the manufacturing PMI for February which is 50,8 while the report was 52.3. The Mortgage Approvals surpassed the reports as it gained 74,587 contrary to the 71,335 recent report which is a quite positive statistics from the UK. In the meanwhile, the Consumer Credit for January reached £ 1.564 billion contrary to the expected 1,300 billion.

The first support occurs at 1.3920 and at 1.3840 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4000 and at 1.4080 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal may be found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report has been issued by the United States at the level of 214,000 wherein, the recent value was from 205,000 to 193,000 while the report was 190,000.

The medium positive data of the manufacturing PMI from Markit cause an increase of quotations and also a decrease of unemployment rate to 10.3% in the eurozone. Since September 2011, the unemployment rate in Eurozone reached its bottom-most level yet way too far to the pre-crisis levels in 2008. Meanwhile, in the debt market, the 10-year government bond yield of Germany reduced in connection to their counterparts which is the US and the UK, wherein it diminished the attraction for European assets. In someway, it wasn't a long-term increase and the EUR/USD pair declined by the end of the trades.

We should take into account the construction PMI of the UK which occurs at the level of 54,2 that seems to be worse than the reported 55,5. The Gross Domestic Product in this sector reflected a decrease in the second half of the year 2015 after a long fast increase. It is also a negative factor for the construction sector the probable exit of the Great Britain to the EU. The London real estate market will be motionless if the UK leaves the union. However, the GBP/USD aggressively heightened by the end of the trades.

Some factors causes the USD/JPY to show some increase. The bears were put in a cumbersome position as the Japan's household spending were release in a negative data. As a funding currency, one of the negative factor for the yen is the "risk appetite in addition to private consumption as the basis of the GDP of Japan. The USD/JPY pair reduced by the end of the trades.