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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 13, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:13 am

The euro-dollar was able to clear the level 1.1488 followed by the strong data of the EMU production while the ECB Governing Council member, Ignazio Visco emphasized again that the European region should have a stronger expansionary policy.

The exchange rate had reversed its direction during the latter part of the session, then whipsawed after the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen in front of Congress. The exchange rate further increased, however, failed to preserve its gains after an upward movement towards the 1.1489 region which is currently the resistance. The support of the pair can be found on the 10-day moving average at 1.1404 mark.

The momentum gained the neutral position while the MACD histogram is printed near the zero level and the index further prints in the black with a flat trajectory which indicates consolidation.
The rate consolidates continuously after the break out and hovered in the bull flag continuation pattern which is a respite that prompts higher.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:42 am

Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 17, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:47 am

The Euro against the U.S. dollar puts its high levels at risk following poor data results on Friday that boosted the pair. The dollar has been negatively positioned in the past few weeks to take advantage of any kind of recovery. The NFP results put a high data keeping hopes up that this would result in a reversal because of the U.S. economic data and anticipated to recover the dollar but it did not happen.

In the previous week, the dollar has kept a sustained decline but the market is focused on Yellen and late data released on Friday. Yellen’s speech was not as expected and she was not concerned with her less hawkish speech which will further place the dollar in a difficult situation. Hence, the dollar bulls will have to rely on the Friday data to appeal for traders to buy since Yellen could not support the dollar. Furthermore, both the retail sales data and the CPI data has failed expectation which has worsened the situation.

The retail sales came in with weakened growth while the CPI data came in at 0.1% compared to the anticipated value of 0.2% that pulled the dollar growth down and pushed the EUR/USD pair up. A steeper correction level is hoped for but the lackluster growth of the U.S. economic data raises concern and the next rate hike would depend on the next reports. Yet, the next rate increase will most likely not happen in the short-term.

For today, there is no major news from the Eurozone as well as in the U.S. which in effect, will continue the market sentiment on Friday. Nevertheless, traders should get ready for the week ahead.


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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:09 am

The British currency slightly weakened on Monday as traders returned to the market. The market is trying to re-enter the break out level to look for additional buyers. This is because of the “profit collecting” in the near-term.

Moreover, we can take advantage by searching for a bounce. The 1.30 region would likely be offering lots of support which is previously known to be resistive.

The US dollar has recently become competitive and it looks like it will resume because of the tightening policy of the Fed Reserve which seems to be slightly firm than expected.

The sterling was oversold for the past few months which led the people to conclude that the British exit isn’t that critical. However, it doesn’t mean that this will not undermine the British economy or maybe the market just reacted exaggeratedly with regards to the vote.

Having said that, the market would still continue to search for more buyers for the pound and the next goal can be found above the consolidation area which was previously part of 1.3450 level. It does not necessarily mean that it would be so easy and will acquire some pullbacks because the market remains to be volatile but there are longer-term buyers who start collecting GBP since it has lower cost in the past.

When the economy of Britain was able to fully recover, the GBP will depreciate hence many traders will find a way to raise the value of one of the world’s strongest economies.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 19, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:38 am

The British currency against the U.S. dollar had a correction during Tuesday session. The pair dropped towards 1.3030 level bringing the trend in a weaker position on Friday after the inflation data came out with negative data.

The pair is now on a crucial condition which will presumably persist in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair could break above the region to move forward in short-term. In the past few weeks, it is notable that the economic data from the UK did not meet expectations. This opposes the trend by the start of the year when the U.K. data has been impressive and exceeded expectations amid of political and economic problems brought by the Brexit negotiation.

The BoE has been anxious regarding the monetary policies including rate hikes in the future and the economic data has a vital role in the decision-making process. Hence, negativity in the data would make them be irresolute.

The GBP/USD pair was able to brush aside issues on weak data and Brexit concerns in the past few weeks due to the low dollar in the market. Moreover, BoE reinforces this and adds more pressure. However, if the dollar steadies, the attention will go back to the BoE and the economic data unless both works side by side. On the other hand, this would be more complicated for the pound bulls.

For today, there are no major new from Britain or from the United States. Choppiness is anticipated to carry on close to the 1.3050 region since the trend is now in consolidation and ranges.


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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:52 am

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session followed by a breakdown towards 112 level. It further goes down towards the 111.50 region where sellers are anticipated to be seen. The 111 level offers sufficient support although the “real” support is found around the 110 handle.

This area is presumed to have a buying pressure while the short-term sellers will persist on pushing the price down. As long as it stays over the 112.50 region, the sellers will have the leverage. If the market successfully breaks above the said level, the trend could be reversed and reach towards the 113 handle. A break above it would then push the price towards 114 level.

The 112 level is a significant level in this chart and the market will persist to be highly volatile. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar will be at a disadvantage because of interest rate issue. Overall, the market will proceed with a selloff as the trend rallies.

For the long term, buyers can be seen close to the 110 handle in consideration of technical outlook. Volatility will remain which is usually the case and the pair will persist to be highly sensitive to the major news will be released from the Federal Reserve. It is possible to for both buyers and sellers to get what they want after some time. There are different positions possible for various traders as the volatility picks up in the market.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:19 am

Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:25 am

The yields across the eurozone weakened while the US dollar make further progress and the 10-year bund yields moved lower at 0.50% as the spreads of the euro area narrowed, following the sluggish results of the PMI readings based on the doubts of M.Draghi to get involve with the QE tapering.

The fresh dip in long yields influenced the EURUSD, however, the remarks from Mersch yesterday verified the postponement and not the cancellation of the QE. Moreover, the ECB will reduce the volume of its asset-buying program which is expected to start earlier in 2018.

The euro-dollar pair rallied to its renewed 23-month high around 1.1694 level and headed lower amid the balance of the trading hours to close the day.

The support for the pair entered the 1.1523 region that is near the 10-day moving average. The resistance reached the 1.1717 mark near the highs of August 2015.

The momentum is still positive as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black linked with an ascending trajectory and seen pointing to a higher exchange rate.
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