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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:54 am

The recent drop in the value of the US dollar proved to be good news for the Australian dollar, as this provided substantial support for the AUD during the previous trading session. In spite of the fact that the previous sessions were mostly made up of high bottoms and tops, the Australian dollar was still generally able to maintain its standing on the positive side of the chart. The AUD/USD pair closed down the previous trading session at 0.7353 points after increasing by +0.82% or 0.0060 points.

A number of Australian economic data was released during Monday’s trading session, with the Building Approvals data coming in at a positive 7.0% reading and the Australian retail sales data coming in at a somewhat dismal reading of 0.2% after failing to meet market expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the US Labor Market Conditions Index dropped by 0.3 points, while the Consumer Credit data surged by 24.5 billion from its previous reading of 18.3 billion.

The AUD/USD pair will be starting off today’s trading session within a somewhat critical range within 0.7341 to 0.7385 points. If the currency pair moves just underneath 0.7341, then this will be an indicator of a larger selling pressure than buying pressure at the present levels of the pair. Since there are no expected economic news releases from the region for today, traders are most likely to focus on external events and its effect on the USD and subsequently, on its effect on the AUD. The US dollar could lose its appeal as an asset if oil prices drop further which will cause US Treasury yields to fall as well.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:05 am

The sterling pound continued its weak trading activity during yesterday’s session as the fears and confusion surrounding the Brexit process as well as other such concerns continue to weigh down on the GBP, a trend which has been going on for the past weeks. The GBP/USD pair was unable to increase in value in spite of the marked dollar weakness during the previous trading session. Market analysts are speculating that the currency pair is currently locked within a highly bearish stance and could possibly incur more losses in the coming days.

Stock prices fell yesterday due to uncertainties surrounding the current position of commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices, as well as Brexit-related concerns. A lot of traders and investors are saying that the market might be well-headed for a hard Brexit, which means that the negotiations between UK leaders and EU officials might prove to be much harder than expected, and also implies that the UK might be unable to obtain free market zone access to the rest of the European Union once they formally leave the eurozone. In addition, Scotland seems to be taking measures to leave the UK in protest to Brexit, which means that the sterling pound is more likely to decrease further in value.

For today’s session, the current market trends are expected to continue since there are no scheduled releases from the UK and the US. The sterling pound is still expected to fail to bounce back from its recent low levels due to the various negative economic factors which continue to affect the state of the pound.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:53 am

The EUR/USD pair exhibited bullish stances during yesterday’s trading session. The US has recently released its average wages data as well as its employment reports data, both of which turned out to be highly satisfactory particularly for investors. This set of data has then set the tone for the market’s movements this week. The USD has increased significantly in value as opposed to the EUR, but the EUR/USD pair was able to counter this movement and instead consolidated during the Tokyo and European trading sessions. The currency pair was able to break through 1.0580 from 1.0520 during the North American session before finally settling just below 1.0600 points.

The USD received little support from comments from Fed officials yesterday, which turned out to be hawkish. The currency pair is now back to trading near its weekly highs last week, a crucial position for both the USD and the EUR. The dollar will most likely be able to regain its strength if the EUR/USD experiences a breakdown. However, if the EUR is able to go beyond 1.0600 and possibly reach 1.0650 points, then the euro could increase in value, thereby putting the US dollar in negative territory. A number of large-scale banks and hedge funds are expecting the USD to regain its strength anytime soon since the fundamentals are all pointing towards a higher value for the USD. However, the dollar bulls must be able to obtain the right timing in order for the USD to strengthen further.

Today’s trading session is most likely to be dominated by the recent market trends as there are no major news releases expected from both the US and the European Union. The pricing of the USD is closely monitored by the market since this could be a catalyst on whether the stock market will be pushing through their bullish direction or consolidate instead.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 11, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:03 am

The positive data from the Investor Confidence in Euroland had strengthened the single European currency yesterday. While, the U.S dollar was able to regain its losses last Tuesday as the Fed told to support the rate hike in 2017. The traders look forward to the ongoing status for Trump’s first conference scheduled today.

Moreover, the momentum of EU appears to be short-lived having touched the 1.0600 level amid the morning trades on Tuesday. After the daily high was set at 1.0626, the EURUSD moved back under 1.0600 in the post session of the European open.

The sellers drove the EUR downwards prior the opening of the New York trading. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price resumed its development on top of the 200-EMA which considered to be pair’s support. The 200 and 100-EMAs were trending flat while the 50-EMA headed upwards. Resistance entered the 1.0600 region, support is at 1.0550 handle. The technicals gradually approached the lower positive territory.

The MACD histogram declined which confirmed weak position for the buyers. The RSI oscillator hovered around the undervalued zone.

According to forecast, the bearish pressure will be renewed in the near-term. A rapid decline below the 1.0550 mark would indicate further vulnerability for the pair. The next bearish target is posted at the 1.0500 level.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 11, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:25 am

The British pound had maintained its present stance on the back of the remarks made by PM Theresa May. The hard-Brexit continue to affect the investor’s sentiment while the attention of investors was focused on the data release of Industrial and Manufacturing Production.
Bears remains to dominate the market and their holds are becoming tighter.

Furthermore, the sterling continued to weaken on Tuesday followed by the short consolidation amid the Asian hours. The sellers moved the cable downwards and touched the 1.2100 level in the London session.

The 4-hour chart showed the price stayed below the moving averages and further cope with the consolidation period before the opening of the NY session. The MAs preserved its bearish trend. Resistance plunged into the 1.2200, support lies at 1.2100 region. The technicals shifted towards a lower point.

The MACD indicator had a dip which favors strength for the sellers. The RSI stick around the oversold levels.

The GBP seems oversold in the near-term which allows reversal of losses. The probable minor recovery around 1.2200 provides an opportunity for short positions. The pair may not change its movements in the near future even though the readings suggests an oversold condition.

The sellers have the chance to regain its seat in case the trend will reached 1.2100 and lead the cable through 1.2000.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 11, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:01 am

The Aussie presented a sluggish stance yesterday as the Retail sales data showed negative results. The pessimistic input for the Chinese CPI had affected the currency as well.
Moreover, an attempt to surpass the 0.7350 level were unsuccessful.

Buyers advanced to 0.7385 where AUD/USD found some fresh offers and declined to 0.7350. Having tested the aforesaid level, sellers resumed its struggle to push the price downwards.

During the morning trades, the price tested 200-EMA as indicated in the 4-hour chart. It further stalls the bull’s movement to continue forward as it acted as the spot’s resistance.

The 200 and 100-EMAs are neutral while 50-EMA edged higher as mentioned in the same timeframe. Resistance holds 0.7400 level, support is seen at 0.7350 region .

MACD indicator dwindled and implied weak position against the buyers. RSI consolidated around the undervalued readings.

As the forecast says, bearish bias kept prevailing in the market. In the most probable scenario, if the price focus below the 0.7350 support level the short-term downtrend could possibly continue. The next target of the sellers are marks 0.7250 and 0.7300.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 11, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:25 am

Just like the majority of other currency pairs, the USD/CAD pair had ranged and consolidated all throughout the rest of the previous trading session without any definite direction. The traders and investors transacting in this particular pair seem to be uncertain with regards to its direction and is first making sure that the currency pair first takes a definitive step on its chosen direction before they do actual buying and selling with the USD/CAD pair. The general trend for the USD/CAD pair is expected to be on an upward direction, and corrections along the way should be seen as long opportunities.

During the previous trading session, oil prices took a turn for the worse as the agreements between oil producers failed to go as smoothly as originally planned, mostly due to the lack of proper implementation from both parties. As a result, the CAD was kept from rising value as oil prices subsequently crashed in value. This is why the CAD was unable to take advantage of the recent decrease in the USD’s value, and the Canadian dollar is now finding it difficult to make substantial progress in both directions,whether upward or downward.

There are no major news coming out from both the Canadian and US economy for today. However, Trump is scheduled to address the US in a press conference later today and the market will be relying on this particular address since this will be the determinant of the general direction of the US dollar. As for the USD/CAD pair, the currency pair would most likely be affected once Trump addresses how he will be handling the international neighbors of US, with Canada being one of them.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 11, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:39 am

The sterling pound merely continued its previous activity of consolidation and ranging albeit with no clear direction as of the moment. The range of the GBP/USD is tightening further as we speak, and the market is expecting an explosion any time soon. However, this major event’s direction has yet to be seen but it can be assured that there is a movement by up to 300-400 pips. However, the risk for the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain in the downward direction due to the weak GBP and strong uptrend in the USD.

However, the recent strength of the USD is expected to be tested today during Trump’s press conference since the market will be closely monitoring Trump’s approach with regards to a number of issues. If Trump decides to take the diplomatic route, then this could trigger a boost in the value of the USD, thereby putting immense pressure on the GBP/USD pair, even though the sterling pound is still currently undergoing pressure from the various confusions surrounding the Brexit process.

The UK is set to release its manufacturing production data for today’s trading session, and this will be an indicator of whether the UK will be able to maintain its current trend of positive data releases which are not yet affected by the Brexit process. If this particular data comes out as negative, then this could increase the pressure on the sterling pound.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:18 am

The USD/CAD pair exhibited additional corrections during yesterday’s trading sessions as the US dollar weakened significantly following the press conference of president-elect Donald Trump. The market initially expected Trump to give hints on his proposed economic, fiscal, and monetary policies but instead disappointed market players after he merely talked about his personal interests and his business enemies. This then caused the dismal drop in the value of the dollar. The stock market was able to recover slightly towards the end of the session, but the same could not be said for the US dollar.

As oil prices managed to regain its losses during yesterday’s session, this has proved to be good news for the Canadian dollar since this lended the CAD some much-needed support and has triggered the USD/CAD pair to reach just under 1.3200 before settling to 1.3150 points. The economic news release from Canada came out better than what the market expected, and since oil prices are now looking good, these are expected to provide susbstantial support for the CAD in the long run. The USD/CAD pair could possibly test the 1.3000 level due to the recent weakness in the USD

For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy but we have the unemployment claims data from the US which will be released during the North American trading session. However, the most dominant market trend today would most likely still be the effects of the recently concluded press conference, and this is why the pair is possibly up for more weakness and volatility for today.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jan 13, 2017 6:46 am

The US dollar took the spotlight yesterday as the market reacted wildly to Donald Trump’s press conference during the latter part of the New York trading session. The market was initially subdued during the London and Tokyo trading sessions since the market was generally looking forward to gauge Trump’s demeanor, as well as to decipher his administration’s plans for the next 4 years and to see whether Trump will actually be pushing through with his proposed policies during his campaign.

However, Trump went in for a very disappointing run as he displayed his usual tactlessness and brashness and even highlighted his desire to build a Mexican border within two years. This move was wholly unexpected by the market, and this caused the USD to crash and plummet across the board. The GBP/USD pair, which has been languishing in the bottom rungs of the market for the past 2 months, was able to immediately recover its losses and was able to push through 1.2200 points and even reached 1.2250 before finally settling at just under 1.2200 points.

Since there are no major news releases expected from the UK for today, the previous market trend is expected to dominate today’s trading sessions. The bulls could possibly profit from a solid upward move from the GBP/USD pair if the pound would be able to break through 1.2300. Otherwise, the currency pair could be merely subject to short-term corrections.

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