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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:47 am

The remarks made by Mario Draghi was the center of attraction of the market yesterday. As investors anticipated for an improvement in policy and economy, as well as other concerns related with the June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, bears became active again this time. The previous recovery loses its gains around the 1.0700 region. The pair withdrawn from its recent highs and lowered down towards 1.0650 level amid post-EU hours. Moreover, seller's maneuvered the price near the 1.0600 during the EU session. The price pushed the 200-EMA below and found a barrier within the 50 and 100 EMAs as indicated in the 1-hour chart. The 200-day moving averages headed downwards, the 100-day average has established a neutral stance and the 50-day heightened. The resistance settled at 1.0650, support entered the 1.0600 level. The MACD increased and specified weaker position for the sellers. RSI headed southwards.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:41 am

The GBP/USD pair was subject to downward pressure during the previous trading session as monthly cash flows combined with a slight increase in the USD triggered the pair to drop from its highs of 1.2500 to just below 1.2400 points. Every month, the market always expects added selling pressure for the GBP since the UK pays its EU membership fees every month. As a result, the value of the EUR/GBP increases, and the GBP becomes subject to significant losses.


There are also some speculations that the Brexit process will be subject to a number of legal challenges which could cause the process to be delayed altogether, and the schedule of events for the Brexit process could possibly go haywire. The UK government is also questioning the decision of the High Court for a Parliament debate first before pushing through with the Brexit process, while the Parliament is already preparing for the said debate just in case that the High Court refuses to overrule its previous decision on the Brexit process. The strength of the GBP would definitely be affected by these expected delays in the Brexit process and could have an adverse effect on the UK economy in general.


For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news expected from the UK. However, the US will be releasing its Advanced GDP data and this could increase the market volatility, with a consolidation possibly happening together with a bearish stance.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:22 am

The pair USD/CAD has been on a spree but with no direction since OPEC hasn’t reached an agreement yet. Oil prices came at a low price yesterday morning the reports came in at the afternoon with Iraq would participate alongside with other OPEC members in reducing production output but there are also reports saying the opposite where countries like Iran and Iraq have no plan of any production cuts.


Loonies are dependent to the oil market pricing as it strengthens relative the oil prices. The pair was seen to begin trading at 1.3500 level then later set in close to the support at 1.3400 after the news has been released. It ranges from 1.34 handle to 1.3450 as the market is not definite on what will happen next that makes the market undecided. What happened on September may occur again where OPEC decided on the last minute.


The Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz had a speech this morning in a positive tone inciting the economy is improving and getting stronger. As the loonies continue to appreciate this keeps the tension up trading in this pair with high volatility while the market still awaits on the outcome of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting.


We had the BOC Governor Poloz speaking early today and he did sound generally very positive about the economy and expressed that the data is slowly getting better which means that the economy is getting stronger as time rolls on. This also added to the CAD strength and helped to keep the pair under pressure. It is expected to have ample liquidity today and tomorrow however if the reverse happens, then the pair will price higher and the Canadian dollar will depreciate.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 30, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:50 am

According to the previous forecasts, the EURUSD persist in having a slow growth and it used the 1.0580 as its base. The pair were able to break the 1.0600 region overnight and settled down from the 1.0650 as of the moment. Later this day, the solid resistance seen at 1.0685 will be challenged and the price trend will be the basis for the possible uptrend of the pair.


The pair is able to rose because of the mild weakening of the USD felt all over, the instability is considered as mild since violent movements are nowhere to be seen among any currency pair. As the end of the month approach, we expect month-end flows to prevail the money flow for today. Despite the positive results of US economic data, GDP and CCI, the dollar continues to soften for the past 24 hours. The fluctuation is caused by the fear of the market regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s unsure policies. Trump is seen posting his opinions using his Twitter account which represents a not so good habit for someone who is the leader of a state.


We are expecting for Draghi's remarks for today and we suppose that his speech won’t complicate the market or either trigger volatility. We also look forward to the EUR/USD to execute trades at higher ranges characterized with a bullish sentiment.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 30, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:10 am

The U.S dollar has softened since Monday while the pound also endures weakness since the week starts as it edged lower because of the end-of-month flows and due to the EU membership payments plus other driving factors.


Yesterday, the sterling established further strengthening and rebounded towards 1.2400 region and reached beyond 1.2540 level before the cable pair settled down from the 1.2500 area and this increase would be better as the weakening of the dollar continues.


The instability of the greenbacks is felt globally though other currencies remains exempted dollar’s softening. The sluggish stance is not a result of weak services data or any fundamentals but more about the market’s weariness regarding the new president of the United States who has the habit of expressing his thoughts whenever he wants to. This way the markets are uncertain about what he’s going to declare any moment.


Furthermore, we are looking forward bank stress test results from the UK. In case that the bank has favorable result we expect for additional strength for the pound which would put the GBP/USD as far as the 1.2500 region. We also await for the ADP Employment data and if the result is less than the expected, the greens will suffer another round of reduction because this report is the main indicator for the NFP on Friday.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 5, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:16 am

The EUR/USD crashed during the previous trading session after the Italian government voted “No” against the proposed constitutional reforms which led to the Italian Prime Minister resigning from his post. This has caused the Italian economy to experience major disturbances since the vote would translate into major policy reversals and could possibly lead to financial woes and could make a lot of investors lose their confidence in the eurozone currency.


These previous events has caused the EUR/USD pair to incur a widened gap, with the currency pair now testing solid support levels at 1.0550 points. Market players are now closely monitoring if the currency pair manages to sustain its hold in the current support region since a break beyond this level could lead to the pair possibly reaching 1.00 points. For this week, the ECB is expected to hold a meeting later within the week, and majority of market players are expecting Draghi to outline the QE program timeline whose conclusion is expected this coming March 2017. If Draghi refuses to have an extension of the QE program, then this could give the euro a much-needed boost. However for now, the market is mainly focused on the possible repercussions of the recently concluded Italian referendum.


For today’s trading session, market players will be mostly focusing on the reaction of the European market on the results of the Italian referendum, since this will be a determinant on the euro’s next move especially since the outlook for the EUR was mostly positive until the results of the said referendum. There are no major economic releases expected from the eurozone for today, and the European market is expected to be subject to tension as the EUR/USD pair will be undergoing significant pressure for today’s trading session.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:10 am

The pound remains strong brought by the recent surge that conversely weakened the U.S. dollar. Traders attempting to reach between the 1.27 and 1.2750 range in today’s session. This gives a positive outlook for the pair with U.S. yields declining and greenback remaining weak.
The published results of the Services PMI gave high numbers at 54.2, even more than the expected value of 55.2. This indicates the continuous growth of Britain’s economy despite leaving the European Union. Concerns regarding Brexit especially the negotiations about Article 50 is still pending on what will E.U. gain from U.K. and what will those Euro leaders offer in return. Britain sees the free market access will continue while Euro leaders are careful with the negotiations as it might be taken advantage by other countries. Once the data will be released since negotiations then the U.K. economy can be finalized.


There is no major news to be published from U.K. then, the current price trend will continue. Traders could move the rate towards the 1.2800 level if the greenback continues to depreciate. It is quite difficult to reach the 1.30 mark with the downtrend being strong. If the rebound ends, the price could further go down.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:30 am

The USD/CAD consolidated and tailed the direction of oil prices during the previous trading session, with the Canadian dollar slightly easing in value after oil prices displayed corrections during the trading session. The Canadian Trade Balance data also came out yesterday and exceeded initial market expectations which helped augment the value of the CAD. The currency pair mainly consolidated on both sides of the 1.3300 trading range.


The market is expecting the Federal Reserve meeting this coming mid-December, and although the Fed rate hike this December is basically minted within the market, market players are now more interested with regards to hints and guidances on the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes next year. The USD/CAD pair is expected to undergo an increase in pressure a few days prior to the Fed meeting since crude oil prices are a major factor in this issue, and another bullish stance is expected for oil prices in the coming days.


For today’s trading session, Canada is set to release a rate statement from the Bank of Canada, where the BOC is expected to maintain its rates and could give traders more insight with regards to the central bank’s stance with regards to the overall feel of the Canadian economy. Traders are expecting some hints with regards to the BOC’s views on future rate cut backs in the coming months, particularly next year.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:52 am

The GBP/USD pair mostly consolidated and ranged on both sides of 1.2700 points since there was no major economic news release from the UK which could compel the pair to move, and this is why the currency pair had a muted session yesterday. However, since the Federal Reserve’s meeting is expected to induce volatility in the financial market, especially since the Fed is expected to announce its much-anticipated rate hike in this particular meeting. Market players are also expecting to receive hints with regards to the central bank’s future rate hikes in order to determine the USD’s direction in the short run. However, if the meeting fails to give out hints with regards to the bank’s future moves, then this could induce a weakness in the US dollar.


Meanwhile, the UK is currently bearing the brunt of the Brexit process, which is expected to last for a couple of years since this will most likely involve heated discussions with leaders from all over the eurozone in order to send out a warning to other EU countries wanting to go in the same direction as the UK.


For today’s trading session, the UK Manufacturing Production data is set to be released during the European session, and market players are expecting the data to come out as positive. If the data does come out as highly positive, then traders can expect the pair to hit 1.2800 points. Otherwise, the pair could continue consolidating on both sides of the 1.2700 region.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:16 am

The USD/CAD is currently still subject to increased pressure after crude oil prices surged during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair is expected to experience this particular pressure as long as oil prices continue to fluctuate and would only cease once crude oil prices reach equilibrium. If this phenomenon happens, then the strength of the USD would most likely dominate the currency pair, and the weak value of the CAD would cause the currency pair to increase in value.


Although the Canadian dollar is currently strengthening, its price is expected to drop once crude oil prices stop its fluctuations and cease from moving upwards, especially since certain issues with the NAFTA agreement will be reopened due to Trump’s re-negotiation, and any changes with this particular agreement would have a significant effect on the trade relationships between Canada and US. The CAD could also weaken due to minor market speculations that the Bank of Canada would be implementing rate cuts next year, and unless the currency pair manages to break through 1.3000, then the USD/CAD will continue to be on the upward trend with a target of 1.4000 points.


There are no major economic news releases expected from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session, and while the US will be releasing its UoM Consumer Sentiment data, this particular piece of news from the region is not expected to have a major impact on the market in general. Market players will now be shifting their focus to US yields, as well as on the scheduled Fed meeting next week, where the Fed is expected to finally implement its much-awaited interest rate hike. However, this event does not automatically translate to an increase in the value of the USD, but the market is expected to receive hints with regards to the Fed’s rate hikes this coming 2017.

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