Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The poor data of Non-farm Payrolls could be a factor of the Fed rate hike delay. The EUR/USD pair bounced up last Friday. It surpassed the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300 and reached the level of 1.3730. This cause the pair to look bullish.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.1370 while the support stands at 1.1300.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location, which signifies growth and is bullish. The RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.

The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.

Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.

A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.

The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.

“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.

Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.

The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.

[Andrea ForexMart]

A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.

TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows.

UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.

As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.

The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.

Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.

We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.

Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.

Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.

The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.

Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.

On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.

The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.

EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.

According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.

In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.

Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.

The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.

Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.

The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The Japanese government believed that the cause of the household spending enfeeblement in May was the continuous breakdown of the consumer prices. This event leads to a further compression to the Bank of Japan which is discontented with the present sinewy of the Japanese yen.

The instrument reduced from a local high. The pair is directed to revert under 102.50. The resistance occurs at 103.50 while the support resides at 102.50.

We should notice that the expansion of the MACD indicator decelerated. It has stayed in the negative location which signifies a sell signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral location and doesn't provide any signals. The USD/JPY pair is under the Moving Averages (50,100 and 200) which goes on a descending movement. The pair tested the 50-day movement and slip downwards. The 50-day movement is the nearest resistance for the pair.