Forex Strategies Forum

[West]

I have been observing two intraday shorts play out this morning on GBP/USD (1-2-3 off pre week low) and GBP/CAD (break and pullback of support). If the trade is purely an intraday position, is it not recommended to trade pairs that have significant economic data due out later in the day as GBP does?

Thanks
West

[whipcrack]

It's certainly advisable to be aware of what's coming up for release & how it might impact the short range price action yes.
Red flag events such as Interest Rate news, Inflation & Productivity Data can adversely influence the current scenario if the numbers or outlook under or over shoot consensus & that could affect your intraday positioning.

It doesn't really affect longer range positioning as much, especially if trades are bedded in & have established some kind of foot hold on the chart.
It's not so much the actual release, but the implications of a large imbalance in the expectation that can throw a spanner in the works, or positively impact your bet - depending on where you're sitting when the data hits the tape.

[West]

This is a trade I took this morning and the subsequent stopout. I'd be interested to hear thoughts on my approach. EURJPY broke out of its range yesterday and remained bid during Asia. I entered long after the pullback to the preday high and placed my stop below the consolidation ledge. Plenty of ADR gas left. I assume this would qualify as a momentum setup trigger that was originally shown at the start of this thread? Do others still use this type of setup?

Thanks
West

[bigdog]

4H is definitely pointing in the long direction West.

Here is an entry off the 15M chart with stoch hook confirmer.

As a rule I am only looking for entries from an hour before London open.

I only trade 1-2-3 entries off the 5 min charts with stoch hook.

[jack mason]

This is a trade I took this morning and the subsequent stopout. I'd be interested to hear thoughts on my approach.
I assume this would qualify as a momentum setup trigger that was originally shown at the start of this thread? Do others still use this type of setup?

Nothing wrong or out of line in your approach to that trade at all from what I can see West.
It simply failed to kick on & you were smart enough to have a stop loss attached to your entry to protect any downside.

That particular trigger is as valid as any other momentum type entry technique.
I took 3 trades this week & got stopped on 2 of them.
A usd/cad & a eur/usd trade, taking much the same type of entry as you did on that one. I got the green light on all aspects of the usual pre-trade prep for both entries, but they simply washed out. That's me cashed & out for the week booking a -0.8% on my ledger.

That's the market for you. Important thing is I protected both positions with a solid stop loss & the impact on my account is negligible because I’m trading well within my risk parameters.
As long as I strictly control my downside I can aggressively manage my upside when the next bet begins going my way.

[xerb]

This is a trade I took this morning and the subsequent stopout. I'd be interested to hear thoughts on my approach.
Plenty of ADR gas left.

I see price made it to your pre-highlighted daily range zone before turning on it's heels West. I realise it's no consolation after having got stopped out, but all you're experiencing is timing issues, something that everyone has to accept, regardless of experience.

The important thing is you're consistently identifying the correct primary bias & facing the right way when preparing your entries. I'd congratulate yourself if I were you, because from what I've seen on my journey's around the forum network folks on this thread are way ahead of the curve as far as setting their basic groundwork out.

You wouldn't believe the confusion & contrary views being bandied about regards directional bias out there, & some of that is coming from supposed experienced traders too

Keep it simple & keep it subtle. You're not going to catch them all, but if you're obeying the core structural bias from your higher timeframe guides you'll snare more than you miss over the long haul.

[West]

Thanks for the comments all.

I see price made it to your pre-highlighted daily range zone before turning on it's heels West. I realise it's no consolation after having got stopped out, but all you're experiencing is timing issues, something that everyone has to accept, regardless of experience.

The trade represented good value for me and the setup ticked all my boxes so I'm not too worried about the outcome. The next setup is always just around the corner and I'll make sure I'm prepped to trigger when it does

The important thing is you're consistently identifying the correct primary bias & facing the right way when preparing your entries.

I find that once I have determined the state of the market (trending/ranging) on my template timeframe through the use of clear HH/HL or LH/LL price action behavior I'm consistently on the correct side of the flows. Timing of entries and managing them to extract as much profit as possible is what I'm working on so I find it very helpful when others post up examples so thank you for this.

[kipper]

I've picked 2 pairs from my watch list that have begun to adopt neutral type behaviour
Cable has developed a couple of lower highs from it's recent top at 5950 & is approaching a key support zone highlighted on the chart.
In my view it needs to attract demand here in order to get me interested in buying dips.

The 2nd neutral pair is USD/CAD.
The double bottom at 9920 has yet to be fully confirmed in my view, & will only inspire me to begin buying dips as per the above explanation should it break through & test the resistance zone indicated in the chart.
I'm leaving these 2 pairs until they either slot back into their previous dominant trends, or confirm breaks through their respective s&r zones.

Hi zilly.
You posted this up last Sunday (12th) & marked out the area's you were interested in to re-engage bets with the larger term trend.
I've put a crosshair on the 2 charts at the precise time & price you submitted the charts & tracked them on my own platform as the price action played out into the beginning of last week's action.

I know you said they were displaying neutral type behaviour & you weren't interested in trading them until they clicked back into their dominant directional bias, but did you actually take any bets on either of them when they reacted back off their respective s&r area's in sync with the dominant bias?

I've been looking back throughout the thread again at some of the zones you guys have identified ahead of time & re-checking the charts afterwards & it's uncanny how accurate these pre-identified levels are when the price action moves into the zones.
Those 2 in particular reacted almost to the pip at your pre-drawn levels, & they're by no means the exception to the rule. It never ceases to amaze me how consistently successful this s&r analysis really is, & when combined with directional bias + the set ups & triggers posted on here, the results are outstanding.

[zilly]

Hi zilly.
You posted this up last Sunday (12th) & marked out the area's you were interested in to re-engage bets with the larger term trend.

I know you said they were displaying neutral type behaviour & you weren't interested in trading them until they clicked back into their dominant directional bias, but did you actually take any bets on either of them when they reacted back off their respective s&r area's in sync with the dominant bias?

No, I didn't kipper.
Although both pairs offered up the typical entry triggers via the shorter timeframes as they moved into those s&r zones, there were (& are) far easier options out there to trade such as the Yen pairs that are trending nicely according to the basic guidelines we prefer to engage with. Those 2 pairs are back on my watch-list as they've now re-engaged with their prior dominant bias, but I've been focusing on pairs that have been displaying far easier trading potential.

If you look at NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY & even USD/JPY, you'll spot the usual price action clues such as very clear & distinguishable 4 & 1 hour dominant bias, price forming rejection and/or continuation bars such as hammers, dojis & bullish outside bars at pullbacks that typically alert us to excellent lower risk/higher probability opportunities setting up on the shorter 5 & 15 minute trigger timeframes.
I simply take these guys constant advice about always trying to make life easier for myself by engaging with pairs or instruments that show strong, trending price action patterns.

Why take excessive risks playing pairs with less than stellar price action behaviour when you can jump into calmer, more sedate trending activity?

[2Taps]

No, I didn't kipper.
Although both pairs offered up the typical entry triggers via the shorter timeframes as they moved into those s&r zones, there were (& are) far easier options out there to trade such as the Yen pairs that are trending nicely according to the basic guidelines we prefer to engage with.

I simply take these guys constant advice about always trying to make life easier for myself by engaging with pairs or instruments that show strong, trending price action patterns.
Why take excessive risks playing pairs with less than stellar price action behaviour when you can jump into calmer, more sedate trending activity?

Amen to that.
It's the one message that comes across to me loud & clear whilst reading & re-reading this stuff.
Make life as easy as you can by ignoring the lower probability set ups in favour of the one's that scream out at you from the big spotlight levels.