Forex Strategies Forum

[xerb]

It's doing exactly what you thought it would so far xerb, so over to you buddy!

Yeah, I just don't fancy it from the long side yet se7en. That area around last weeks highs really has to be taken first before I commit any of my money to a long bet.

I'm simply using the basic template guides that Tess, Jocelyn & their colleagues laid down to keep me on the right side of the money & for now it's still telling me to short rallies.
I'm actually preferring to short Euro versus the NZ Dollar (as per my previous post) & Yen at the moment to be honest. The eurnzd short especially is a really easy bet to take given the strong trend still in place.

But as we know things can change in a hearbeat, so it's worth keeping our eyes peeled & taking the advice goldtop issued regards the patchy early year/month liquidity levels.

[jack mason]

5m Chart shown below. Same technical template as my previous post.

Note the slope of the 240 SMA (= 20 SMA on 1H chart).
- 5M is making higher lows.
- 1H is making higher lows.
ADR good.
4H upside zone is 3080 - 3100 which conincides with PDH and PWH.Lots on offer up there I suspect.

Hi bigdog.
You're over in Australia I assume given the timezone you're plotting on your charts.

Nice couple of charts with 2 very acceptable risk (& potential reward) slots available to take a swing at any further upside.
There's certainly a fair clump of offers up there at last weeks highs isn't there. It's experiencing some pretty tough resistance so far this week.

What made you decide on the hourly 20 (240/5m) SMA if you don't mind me asking?
Was it a case of trialling a few & deciding on that one?

Look forward to seeing more of your (& the other guys new to the thread) contributions this year.
The thread looks like it's about to get a whole lot busier with what appears to be more good quality content which is fantastic to see!

[jack mason]

I'm actually preferring to short Euro versus the NZ Dollar (as per my previous post) & Yen at the moment to be honest. The eurnzd short especially is a really easy bet to take given the strong trend still in place.

I wholeheartedly agree xerb, shorting into that handsome trend is a very low risk/high reward opportunity indeed.
You've got yourself a nice bonus again this week judging by the mileage it's made so far.

Hope it continues plodding on for you!

[bigdog]

What made you decide on the hourly 20 (240/5m) SMA if you don't mind me asking?
Was it a case of trialling a few & deciding on that one?

Look forward to seeing more of your (& the other guys new to the thread) contributions this year.
The thread looks like it's about to get a whole lot busier with what appears to be more good quality content which is fantastic to see!

Yes, east coast of Australia. London open currently coincides with the early evening here so a good time to trade for those of us who are part time.

20 SMA/1H is straight from Carll's technical template (see his previous posts on this thread). I personally like the visual input it gives in terms of a guide to directional bias. That together with higher lows (long bias) or lower highs (short bias).

I am an intra day trader only. I always set profit targets as follows:
T1 = 20-30 pips (based on max stop loss of 30 pips)
T2 = ~ADR and T2 >= 2 x Risk

I like to shoot for 65% ADR when its available as well. Now this can influence T1 and/or T2.

Hope this helps.

[kipper]

I personally like the visual input it gives in terms of a guide to directional bias. That together with higher lows (long bias) or lower highs (short bias).

Me too. A lot of people openly dismiss the use of moving averages & lower case indicators such as Stochastics, but the way these guys have advised on their usage & the many examples Carll has shared on how he incorporates them into a simple, basic model is not only very clever but incredibly logical.

I like to shoot for 65% ADR when its available as well. Now this can influence T1 and/or T2.

That really is a cracking trade management guide. Rarely does price fail to touch the 65% adr level, & provided you can get in before price has travelled too far into the days available range, scaling out or fully encashing into the 65% of adr zone is a beauty!!

I've begun to use the 65-70% level exclusively now as my first decision making zone & wherever possible trail up or down behind the 5 or 15 minute swings if I manage to develop an intraday trade into a potential rollover position.
If price fails to touch or trade into that initial zone before I've managed to book some profit first, & begins retracing I don't hesitate to pull my stops up to b/e & register a scratch trade.

[bigdog]

Short bias in play on 1H using 20 SMA.

I am looking for price to pop back into the Asian session range as it currently has as I type this. Even above Asian session high if possible.

Look for the stoch to hook at 80.

Wait for 1-2-3 entry short. Providing there is room to PDL.

This is all on demo.............

[Carll]

Short bias in play on 1H using 20 SMA.
I am looking for price to pop back into the Asian session range as it currently has as I type this. Even above Asian session high if possible.
Look for the stoch to hook at 80.

Excellent interpretation, preparation & application of the bias & execution.
It's quickly apparent you're not going to experience too many setbacks or false dawns if you continue to set your stall out as you're currently doing.

Impressive first few contributions. Look forward to more of your activity!

Don't lose sight of that very basic yet extremly importent piece of this jigsaw Se7en.
Its the heartbeat & core of everything that drives this technical model.

The thing I like about their material is the fact it follows a simple, logical sequence both in the preparation analysis & the execution of the bets.
No fancy indicators or layer upon layer of confirmatory information to work through.
Just one primary (higher) timeframe to get your bearings from & whatever secondary (lower) timeframe you prefer to execute the entry.

And you kindly linked me here too in search of a private communique with Carll, for which I thank you!
I'm adding myself to the growing thread membership.

Nice to see a few more familiar usernames popping up to add flavor to the pot!!

[bigdog]

Thanks Carll..........credit goes to you.

To finish the story off. 5M chart below shows what happened based on analysis done over 4 hours ago.

My thinking at the time was that the big guys needed to run the stops above the asian range to get people thinking long breakout and thus filling their order books for a move south.

Nice to have a few of the names from bpips come across here. Certainly adds to the quality of the posts.

T1 filled @ 2900
T2 @ 2820
Stop @ 2870 now

It will be interesting to see what the New York Open (NYO) crew will do to price?????

Carll, what period ADR are you using pls?

[jjay]

Carll, what period ADR are you using pls?

He's logged off & won't be around again until next Tuesday bigdog, so I'll take this one for him.
He currently observes the 40 period ATR on the Daily chart. That's sufficient to offer him an acceptable balance & trade-off between the difference in volatility between the near (1 month) & far (3 month) activity....that should be more than appropriate for an intraday type approach.

T1 filled @ 2900
T2 @ 2820
Stop @ 2870 now

Nice trading & well managed.
You've got it taped now should it grow legs quickly, yet close enough so as not to give back too much of your hard worked profit.....always try to adjudge & account for a compromize

It will be interesting to see what the New York Open (NYO) crew will do to price?????

Sure, but that's not really something that ought to concern you, certainly not having snagged your ideal entry & got your profit trailing sussed out.

[kipper]

Here are 3 I've been trading/following recently based on the pre-trade & preparation style advised on the Tech Template & 3 Ducks threads.
eurnzd is quite a bit more visual & obvious in its current directional bias, & one I traded short leading into Xmas.
I'll continue to take a short bias on this pair too until it trades & confirms a potential bias change beyond last week’s highs.

and the staple old favourite of most people...eurusd. I will only consider taking a counter-long view if it manages to trade & hold back above last weeks highs above the 1.3075 region.
Until then I'm looking for shorts only.

Yeah, I just don't fancy it from the long side yet se7en.
I'm simply using the basic template guides that Tess, Jocelyn & their colleagues laid down to keep me on the right side of the money & for now it's still telling me to short rallies.
I'm actually preferring to short Euro versus the NZ Dollar (as per my previous post) & Yen at the moment to be honest. The eurnzd short especially is a really easy bet to take given the strong trend still in place.

.
xerb,
It looks as though you're taking a slightly longer term outlook with your trades if I'm reading your comments correctly.
Can I ask how you would typically manage a trade once it has begun to move into positive territory.

I note you're currently trading EUR/NZD & have done since before Xmas. What type of trade management approach have you adopted with this position & does it differ much from any intra-day trades you take. I'm guessing average day or week range will form part of your decision making criteria?

Thanks.